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If fly-half Morne Steyn has the ball in his hands too often on Saturday night, the Boks will beat the Wallabies at Suncorp. But starving him is easier said than done.
The Super Rugby stats for this season are an eye-opener to how devastating Steyn can be, when given the chance.
Most points – 204, tops the list.
Most conversions – 32, tops the list as well.
Most penalty goals – 57, second to Christian Lealiifano’s 58.
Most kicks – 204, tops.
And most kick metres – 8332, the length of the straight more than Beauden Barrett’s 5304, Jesse Mogg’s 5208, and Quade Cooper’s 4560.
Steyn is a master at turning sides around with that big boot, and when they get frustrated, he bangs over the penalty.
So Wallaby open-sider Michael Hooper’s number one priority all night will be to keep the champion Bok quiet – again, easier said than done, especially as Hooper was one of the main offenders in conceding penalties (21), and missing tackles (30), during the Super season.
So too were Lealiifano, missing 28 tackles, and Quade Cooper, 26.
So where will Steyn direct his attack if he’s given room to move? Right through the midfield, with skipper Jean de Villiers set for a picnic, unless Wallaby coach Ewen McKenzie has plugged those weaknesses.
This promises to be a fascinating version of rugby chess at pace.
The key will be how McKenzie has lifted a side that has been beaten four times in their last five outings,
Losing can become just a habit, just like winning,
Wallabies, like any other sportsmen, are creatures of habit,
And that’s where McKenzie has his hands full, limiting the bad habits of his squad, and promoting their strengths.
Ben Mowen is a good example.
The backrower topped the lineout wins in the Super tournament with 91, but was well up conceding penalties, with 24.
Which brings in the danger of Morne Steyn again.
The Wallaby backrow are capable of giving Steyn penalty potting practice: Mowen conceded 24 Super penalties, Hooper 21, and Scott Fardy 16 – all three of them among the worst offenders in 2013.
Turnovers – Cooper and Stephen Moore top the list with 43 each.
These are serious numbers, and negatives.
But the Wallaby positives are there for the taking: quick ball, accurate passing, safe handling, and first-time tackling, and Morne Steyn will be blotted right out of the picture.
Again, easier said than done, but there have been enough positional changes made to beat the Boks.
Best examples?
Israel Folau made 132 runs in Super Rugby from full-back, and he’s back there at long last.
He also made nine line breaks, and 33 off-loads, second only to Quade Cooper.
Stats can be unforgiving, but they are always a leveler.
The Wallabies can win on Saturday, if they do the simple things right, the basics.
And starve Morne Steyn of the ball.