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Australian Adam Ashleigh Cooper (centre) is tackled by New Zealand's Jimmy Cowan (right) and Ali Williams (left) during the Tri Nations final between the Australian Wallabies and New Zealand All Blacks at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, Saturday, Sept. 13, 2008. The All Blacks beat the Wallabies 28-24. AAP Image/Dave Hunt
With New Zealand and Australia both returning from South Africa somewhat shell shocked, this mid-tournament clash is shaping up to be a pivotal encounter in this year’s Tri-Nations. Yet there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of excitement or anticipation for Saturday’s Test.
Both sides are coming off back-to-back away losses, and they’re both due for a win of any sort.
The All Blacks need a win to retain the Bledisloe Cup and keep their Tri-Nations hopes alive. The Wallabies need to win all of their remaining games if they’re to have any chance of winning either title.
So who’s going to win in Sydney? Or better yet, who will play well enough to avoid losing?
Let’s face it, these aren’t vintage Australian and New Zealand sides. That doesn’t mean that they can’t produce a spectacle in Sydney, but in such a must-win fixture, the chances are that you’ll see some less-than-great rugby.
Here’s a look at some of the issues facing both teams, starting with the home side:
AUSTRALIA
I fired some shots at the Wallabies earlier in the season for not playing well, and I think their away results have justified those comments. If you’re not playing well at home, then your away performances will be even worse, and the same is true for the All Blacks.
The Wallabies’ game plan this year appears to be to play well in all areas of the game, but in doing so, they’re not excelling in any particular area.
It’s easy to point out the type of players the Wallabies are missing, but the Wallaby squad is what it is. Robbie Deans has made a career out of making the most of what he has, but I think it’s time to drop the provincial mentality of being solid in all areas and do justice to the Wallabies by having them play to a strength.
Traditionally, that strength has been their attack. It seems clear from Australian supporter’s comments that a lot of people are unhappy with the current style of play, and I think that’s something Deans’ needs to change for the good of the game in Australia.
In recent times, the Wallabies have been forced to attack while losing the forward confrontations.
That’s something Deans would dearly love to change, and there will be a lot of expectation on the returning Rocky Elsom, but he’ll have matured into a damn fine player if he’s to exert any influence over this game after such a long layoff.
Instead, I think Deans should concentrate on the make-up of his backline, because it really is one of the weaker Australian backlines in recent memory.
How long can Deans persist with Giteau at first five before he acknowledges that it hasn’t worked? Giteau was heralded as the best first five in the world during the Super 14, but it’s painfully obvious that Giteau isn’t a natural five eighths.
Berrick Barnes has a better kicking game out of hand, and the Wallabies would be better suited to a more traditional first five/inside centre combination than watching their present tandem struggle to juggle the kicking duties.
Mortlock’s injury is a blessing in disguise, since it’ll prove once and for all whether he should still be in the side.
The All Blacks have spent a lot of energy in recent years trying to prevent Mortlock from getting over the advantage line, so there may be an opportunity for Adam Ashley-Cooper to slip a few tackles if the All Blacks relax in that area.
Plus, it forces the All Blacks to defend a new look backline, which never really hurts.
James O’Connor is young and still has an adventurous spirit, so he should be fun to watch from the back. Provided the Wallabies elect to run.
The worst thing the Wallabies can do in this Test is try to play a clever kicking game. Kicking the ball away will further rip the soul from Australian rugby. They should attack as much as they possibly can and try to make dents in the All Black defence.
The All Blacks’ defence is one of the only things they have going for them at the moment. Punch holes in it and the All Blacks will fold like an accordion.
And for God’s sake, use Lachie Turner. That guy must feel like he’s still playing for the Waratahs. He’s been practically invisible in the Tri-Nations to date.
NEW ZEALAND
The All Blacks’ problems could take up an article of their own, so I’ll try to be brief.
The All Blacks just don’t seem prepared for this Test season. Whether it’s because of the short off-season or the fact that so many of the player’s Super 14 seasons were disrupted by injury, leaving their short on game time, they simply haven’t been capable of giving a hundred percent in their six Tests to date.
The only times we’ve seen a committed forward performance from the All Blacks have been the second Test against France and the second half against the Wallabies at Eden Park.
Aside from that, they’ve been outmuscled by more physical packs.
The All Blacks’ biggest strength – their back row – has failed to make an impression in all but their Test match victories, and So’oialo has made way for Kieran Read as a consequence.
All eyes are on Daniel Carter, but there’s a sense that people aren’t getting too excited until they see what he’s capable of on the field. In fact, there doesn’t seem to be as many butterflies in the stomach as there were leading up to last year’s Eden Park match against the Wallabies.
Speaking for myself, I can hardly muster any enthusiasm for this Test, and I think it’s up to the players to win the fans back. I would suggest it will take something more substantial than a shaky Test win to do this.
One advantage the All Blacks have is that several of them have been released to play for their clubs in the Air New Zealand Cup.
This year’s ANZC has had a somewhat encouraging atmosphere, and hopefully that’s rubbed off on the All Black players. I may be reading too much into the situation, but it appears that the NZ rugby public are sick of the SANZAR triumvirate and would like rugby to return to being the national game. If that’s the case, then I couldn’t agree more.
The danger with Carter returning is that given the All Blacks want to free themselves from their shackles and attack with the ball in hand, they may lose a foot race to the Wallabies at home. The irony of that is that it would probably produce the spectacle that this Tri-Nations needs, but a third straight loss would be a somewhat killer blow for Henry and most of his players.
Hence, I’m not that excited to see what the All Blacks will come up.
McAlister to second five is a logical choice and one that Henry may have been planning for a while, but McAlister hasn’t look good at any point this season and reportedly wasn’t that great playing for North Harbour.
Rokocoko’s inclusion is a surprise and may have something to do with Henry’s clash with Wellington coach Jamie Joseph over game time for Cory Jane specifically.
So who’s going to win?
The All Blacks’ have long struggled in Sydney. Since 1991, they have a 5-10 record at the Sydney Football Stadium. Sydney was the site of Robbie Deans’ only victory over the All Blacks to date and where they probably produced their best Test performance under Deans so far.
A third straight loss would be new territory for a Graham Henry All Blacks side, but they’ve already broken new ground this year with three losses to date.
Neither side inspires a great deal of confidence, but I think I’m going with the Wallabies here. On one proviso – they consolidate on their good starts.
In both Tri-Nations Tests, they scored the opening tries and in both Tests they allowed the opposition to kick their way back into the match.
I suppose the most interesting thing about Saturday night’s contest will be whether New Zealand or Australia adopt any of South Africa’s tactics, or whether they try to play the style of rugby that both countries’ enjoy.
For the sake of the game, I hope it’s the latter.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.