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I must admit that I’ve enjoyed the past few weeks, watching the Springboks become the Wallabies’ problem, safe in the knowledge that the Bledisloe is retained for another year. But it’s back to reality as the All Blacks prepare to face the Springboks on home soil.
Ideally the Springboks would’ve liked to have clinched the Tri-Nations before stepping foot on New Zealand soil, and perhaps even rested some players, but taking the title from the All Blacks in New Zealand, and inflicting a further home loss on them, has be the stuff that Bok dreams are made of.
For the record, I don’t think the All Blacks can win the Tri-Nations.
The last time they scored four tries in a Test was in a pick-up game against the Scots and they’ve only managed four tries in their past four Tests.
Considering that the All Blacks are averaging 23 points in the past two Tri-Nations (to the opposition’s 20 points), and have scored 19 points in their past three games, they’d have to hold the Boks to zero or three points to make any sort of inroads on the points differential.
Still, the Boks won’t want to leave their fate in the Wallabies’ hands.
I expect the Springboks to revert to their kick and chase game in Hamilton. If they take control of the game early, and put the All Blacks on the wrong side of referee Nigel Owens, then there’s really no need to spring any surprises.
One area that they may look to attack is the All Black midfield – the great Achilles’ heel of New Zealand rugby.
Henry has been flirting with two options to cover the midfield. One option is to switch Daniel Carter to second five and play Stephen Donald at first five. The other option is to move Mils Muliaina from fullback to centre and play Ma’a Nonu at second five.
Neither option is particularly exciting for All Black fans. The Muliaina option conjures up bad memories from the past, while the Donald option has only worked when Donald was subbed on late and was a failure when they experimented with it as a starting option.
If Henry decides to play Donald, the Boks will surely look to target him as they did in South Africa. Then again, putting pressure on Carter is a favourite trick of the Boks, so it may not make a difference in regards to the Boks’ tactics.
The answer to the midfield selection may lie in the All Blacks’ tactics. Do they try to attack from the outset and run the risk of the Boks counter attacking, or do they try to play it safe and build towards something in the second half?
In any event, I hope they remember the defensive ramifications.
One of the only successful things the Boks did in Brisbane was attack the Wallabies’ midfield channels from set piece ball. You could maybe argue that they attacked from too far out, but they’re bound to have a crack at the All Blacks’ midfield if they get enough attacking oppositions inside the All Blacks’ half.
As for the All Blacks’ game plan, well, it’s relatively simple – copy the Wallabies.
Throw short to the lineout, try to put pressure on the scrum, be smart about the numbers you commit to the breakdown, keep the ball in hand and try to attack from broken play.
Whether the All Blacks can succeed in doing this depends on a number of factors.
There’s as much chance of Owens reffing the way Barnes did as there is of lightening striking the same place twice. Unless the game is particularly open, I fully expect Owens to get involved.
The scrum may be an issue for the Boks or it may not, but the breakdown will invariably favour one team. My advice to the All Blacks would be to take it one ruck at a time.
The Springboks have had a big year and they may be starting to tire in the forwards.
On the other hand, the All Blacks haven’t shown that they can contend with the Springbok pack. The young guys in the All Black pack – Franks, Ross and Read – have been getting through a mountain of work, but not exactly in a dominating fashion.
They may turn out to be quality players in the future, provided New Zealand rugby doesn’t let its standards slip, but for now the Springboks have an overwhelming advantage in experience.
The All Blacks tied up their line outs and catching under the high ball in time for the Sydney Test, but that was three weeks ago, and I expect the Boks to test the All Blacks early and often.
Really, it’s the Boks who hold all the cards, because it’s the All Blacks who need to score.
One thing that’s impressed me about the Boks’ play this season has been the way they dislodge the ball in the tackle. How many try saving tackles have we seen from the Boks this season, and how many outright strips?
The Boks aren’t that great in broken or loose play, but their scrambling cover defence is quite good, and the All Blacks will have to beat them for numbers if they’re to score enough points.
I’m not sure that they can do it to be honest, and I think a better approach would be to try to win the Test regardless of the score line and worry about the winning margin next week.
A bonus point won’t hand the Springboks the trophy, but it will make it extraordinarily difficult for the All Blacks to win by a big enough margin in Wellington.
For that reason, I think you’ll see the Springboks play a conservative game where they look to put pressure on the All Black defence and kick as many penalties as possible. They may attack from good ball, but they’re just as likely to drop back into the pocket, knowing that the All Blacks are about as adept at defending drop goal attempts as they are at taking them.
All told, I’d rather be in South Africa’s position than New Zealand’s, which is why I’m calling this a Bok-check.
Twice the All Blacks were pinned in their own 22 in South Africa and frustrated by their lack of possession. Let’s see if they’ve learnt anything.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.