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The bid to host football’s World Cup has given rise to a crisis in the ranks of the AFL and NRL, with both bodies having to put on a public display of supporting the bid, while trying to work out the hypothetical gains and losses the tournament.
With the Federal government reportedly spending $75 million to support the bid, the stakes are high, and the two major domestic codes face some anxious calculations in weighing the balance sheet.
The AFL has already made it clear that Etihad Stadium will not be offered to FIFA as part of the bid, although whether it can sustain that stance in the face of the Federal government will be interesting to see.
The threat of having to close down a competition for upwards of eight weeks would inevitably mean that compensation would have to be paid, and of course everything has its price.
But the longer-term issue is how well the two domestic codes would be positioned to prosper after the World Cup has come and gone.
The AFL is bigger than the NRL, and it appears to have potentially the most to lose from any upsurge in support for soccer.
The NRL will benefit from an investment around the country in rectangular stadiums, including probably a new 40,000 capacity stadium at Campbelltown suitable for the Wests Tigers.
Similar improvements would probably be made to stadiums in other NRL towns like Canberra, Wollongong Townsville and Newcastle, while improvements to stadiums in Adelaide and Perth would present the NRL with an opportunity to move into those markets after the tournament ended.
The AFL wouldn’t benefit from any of that investment, however, and I can fully understand why Andrew Demetriou is more or less making clear his opposition to the World Cup.
Even while the tournament was taking place, the NRL, with its suburban Sydney venues, would be able to carry on if those stadiums were not used as training venues for the World Cup, which appears at least to be a possibility.
The NRL might also be in a position to take matches across the ditch to New Zealand, to play matches in cities like Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin, effectively promoting their code in NZ while the World Cup is played in Australia. There probably isn’t sufficient support in NZ for the AFL to do the same thing.
So on balance I can see how the NRL might support the bid, but the AFL wouldn’t.
On the other hand, both codes could lose out if the World Cup results in them losing supporters to football.
Both codes faced the same issue with the 2003 rugby World Cup, but in the long-term rugby wasn’t able to take advantage of the upsurge in interest.
Whether soccer can do better than that will be interesting to see.
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