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The NSW Waratahs won their game on Saturday evening against the Sharks but are losing the war.
In trying to make sense of the Waratah’s most recent performance, and genuinely trying to seek positives while avoiding succumbing to the pent up negativity built up over many years, I turned to cold analysis based around the organisation’s core objectives.
These include:
1. 2010 Competition points
2. Bonus points
3. Future revenues
4. Advancing the brand value
5. Showcasing the game of Rugby in its largest Australian market.
The expectation, not unreasonably, was that the Waratahs had a very good opportunity to meet all of its objectives. They were playing at home, at full strength, against the win-less, fragmented Sharks. The only negative was that the Waratahs had spent nine hours on a plane earlier in the week returning from South Africa while the Sharks were coming in from New Zealand.
To obtain a benchmark, I decided to compare the Waratahs performance statistics to averages from the Crusaders and Blues, Brumbies and Lions and Chiefs and Reds games in round four.
I also compared the Waratahs to the Reds’ performances, despite the vast difference in their respective oppositions.
The Waratahs ran the ball 74 times, 14 per cent below the average of the eight teams, 86 times. The Reds had 104 carries, 21 per cent above the same average. Yet the Reds only moved the ball the same total distance as the Waratahs, 490 metres, when running it.
The Waratahs kicked it 31 times, five per cent more than the average of the eight teams. The Reds and the Chiefs kicked it just 15 and 14 times respectively, or 50 per cent less than the average.
The Waratahs turned the ball over 18 times to the Sharks 10. This included two at the line-out and three at restarts. The Reds turned the ball over 24 times.
The Waratahs had about 49% of the possession while the Reds had 47%.
My conclusion is that the Reds played more rugby and took their chances against strong opposition. The Waratahs played less rugby than even the average of the other teams. They didn’t take their opportunities against a much weaker opponent.
The outcome of the game, in terms of their objectives, is very poor. They achieved only one of their five objectives: competition points. Worse than that, their failure to achieve the other four objectives has compromised the promised resurgence.
I cannot explain:
1. Why the Waratahs reverted to a game plan that is already proven not to achieve their objectives? I am sure that every reader of this article has heard a junior rugby coach telling his players that any player who kicks the ball will be replaced immediately.
2. Why the Waratahs back line, despite all the supposed skill, unable to set a line, call a move, catch and pass, exploit an overlap or score a try?
3. Why the Waratahs didn’t try to score the fourth try and the bonus point? They will not have a better opportunity this season to do so.
4. How the Waratahs captain, Phil Waugh, equates the up-tempo game plan he mentioned in the post-match interview with continually kicking possession away?
5. Why has the Waratahs coaching staff not learnt the lessons of the past and continue to ignore the needs of the spectators, the organisation and the code?
6. Why the Waratahs senior management allow the current situation to continue and damage the organisation’s reputation and financial health?
The Reds achieved, indeed exceeded, all of their objectives. Ewen McKenzie has learnt from his mistakes and adapted his game plan to respect the Reds’ spectators, the Reds organisation (in administration) and the code.
It is no surprise that the Reds players are enjoying their rugby while the Waratahs are clearly not.
In other words, the NSW Waratahs won Saturday evening’s battle but are losing the war on all fronts!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.