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South Africa's Bakkies Botha, left, Victor Matfield and Bismarck du Plessis celebrate winning the Tri Nations Cup after defeating New Zealand in the Tri Nations International rugby match, Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, New Zealand, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009. (AP Photo/NZPA, David Rowland)
It’s hard to get around the probability that next Saturday’s Test between the All Blacks and the Springboks at Eden Park will define the outcome of the 2010 Tri Nations.
If the Springboks win, as the bookmakers (who put their money where their mouth is) say, then the likelihood is that they will win back-to-back Tri Nations tournaments in 2009 and 2010.
Last season the Springboks beat the All Blacks in three successive Tests, which set them up for their third Tri Nations title, and their first since 2004.
Chris Laidlaw, a former All Black great and now a writer and broadcaster of distinction about rugby, says of the current Springboks: “They have an almost perfect blend of strength, bulk, pace and guile… The Springboks have adapted to the new rule interpretations surprisingly well and they have no hang-ups about having to entertain the punters as well as win.”
He also argues that the Springboks are ‘better in almost every respect’ from the team that won the 2007 Rugby World Cup. I’d agree with this and his comments about the strength of this present Springboks side. It is one of South Africa’s greatest teams.
A number of the important members of the RWC 2007 side including the captain John Smit, Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield and Bryan Habana are still playing. Just as importantly, in my opinion, the Springboks have discovered a kicking number 10, Morne Steyn, who can release the backs if needed but who plays the position game the Springboks love to play.
The Springboks always are a much stronger side when they have a good kicking number 10. This style suits their tradition of producing huge, athletic and fast forwards who run brilliantly from broken play.
Steyn also kicks goals from everywhere. In his 15 Tests he has kicked 23 conversions, 37 penalties and 5 dropped goals. Dan Carter in 69 Tests has kicked 181 conversions, 184 penalties, 2 drop goals. Matt Giteau in 81 Tests has 89 conversions, 90 penalties, 4 drop goals.
Steyn came into Test rugby with the ruck interpretations that rewarded the defensive team when it got its hands on the ball. He was able to convert the big penalty rate gained by the tough tackling Springboks into victories for his side. The value of his kicking game is highlighted by the higher number of penalties kicked over conversions (unlike Carter and Giteau), and the significant number of dropped goals he has kicked in his short Test career.
If the All Blacks and the Wallabies can play accurately and positively, and not give up penalties from the high pressure game inflicted on them by the Springboks, they have a chance to defeat the current champions.
The Wallabies did this, in fact, last season at Brisbane when they trounced the Springboks. The Queensland Reds did the same thing, as well, to the Bulls this season. Lang Park is a perfect surface for running rugby and the Wallabies will be playing the Springboks in their first 2010 Tri Nations Test after the Springboks will have had two successive weekends of Tests against the All Blacks.
The Wallabies will never have a better chance of defeating this Springboks side. Moreover, the Springboks have not won against the Wallabies at Brisbane since 1971.
A win at Brisbane, though, will be much easier or even possible if the All Blacks can win at least one of the first two Tests against the Springboks. There is a faint hope for them in the fact that last year they played without Daniel Carter, and the side itself seems to be stronger than last year’s team.
The new interpretations also favour the high-octane game the All Blacks are trying to develop. The question for them is whether they pay this game and not make mistakes at the break-down or with intercept passes that allowed the Springboks to dominate them last year.
The All Blacks have some history on their side. The last time they lost at Eden Park was in 1994. They have won 20 Tests there in a row making the ground something of a fortress for New Zealand rugby.
If any team can overwhelm that fortress it is the current Springboks. This is one of the great Springboks sides which has achieved that enviable habit, the habit of winning.
There is another intriguing aspect to all of this, and this is how the 2010 Tri Nations results will play out for next year’s World Cup tournament.
In the 1998 Tri Nations, the year before the World Cup in England won by the Wallabies, Australia finished 2, South Africa 1, New Zealand 3.
In 2002, the year before the World Cup in Australia won by England with Australia in the final, New Zealand finished 1, Australia 2, South Africa 3.
In 2006, the year before the World Cup in France won by the Springboks, New Zealand finished 1, Australia 2, South Africa 3.
Is there a pattern here? And does that pattern indicate that if a team wants to win the World Cup it should not win the Tri Nations the year before?
Personally, I believe that this sample is far too small for a rule to be made from all of this. We need about five or six more World Cup tournaments before we can start establishing patterns about when teams should peak.
What we do know is the 2011 RWC will be held in New Zealand.
This means that someone has to defeat the All Blacks for that side not to win the tournament. We also know that it is tough to defeat the All Blacks in New Zealand. The Wallabies and the Springboks will need to get all the practice at achieving this they can in the next two Tri Nations tournaments.
Which brings us back to Eden Park next Saturday night and its must-win aspect for the All Blacks and the Springboks.