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According to the universally accepted principles upon which the universe operates, the Wallabies most recent loss to the Springboks in Pretoria was always going to happen. After all, the laws of physics are immutable.
You can’t change gravity, you can’t change Boyle’s Law, and it’s unlikely that Newton’s Laws of Motion are going to change any time soon.
Probably quite rightly, you ask “What the hell has this stuff got to do with modern rugby?”
Well, strap yourself in for a brief science lesson and we’ll see what formulas and fumbles have in common.
First up, Boyle’s Law. This one has to do with the behaviour of gas under pressure. It states that “at constant temperature, the volume of a gas varies inversely with the pressure, while the density of a gas varies directly with pressure.” WTF?
OK, so for the piano movers out there, let’s dumb it down a bit. This just means that a gas under pressure gets smaller and denser, which explains why the atmosphere at sea level is thicker and more pressurised. As you get higher, pressure reduces and the atmosphere gets thinner.
So far so good. Here’s the crucial fact though. There is still the same amount (about 20% of the total gases) of oxygen in the atmosphere. There is no less oxygen at altitude and the air is not “oxygen-poor” or “oxygen-starved”.
There is, however, less oxygen by volume, because the atmosphere is less dense. This means that a lungful of air at altitude has less oxygen than the same lungful at sea-level.
Sounds good, but it’s not responsible for the whole altitude effect, particularly given the comparatively modest 1200 odd metres altitude at which Pretoria sits. (By contrast, the 1968 Summer Olympics were held in Mexico City which sits at a dizzy 2,260 metres.)
So what else is in the kitbag? Let’s try Fick’s Law. I’m not even going to try to give you the full version of this one, because it starts out “The net diffusion rate of a gas across a fluid membrane is proportional to the difference in partial pressure…” and it gets worse from there.
The reason we care about it, is because it explains why the reduced air pressure at altitude is not enough to push the molecules of oxygen through the membranes in our lungs, and into our bloodstream.
So in Pretoria, and next week in Bloemfontein, Boyle and Fick get together and cheekily dilute our standard lungful of air, as well as giving us the lung/bloodstream equivalent of a flat tyre.
What happens then?
Well, you get mild cerebral hypoxia, which means your brain starts spluttering like your old high school Corolla with a dirty fuel filter. Symptoms include difficulties with complex learning tasks (“How does this lineout work again?”) and reductions in short-term memory (“What the hell is a 34-28-afterburner call?”).
So we know that the Wallabies are up against it on the high veldt because they’re not getting the requisite amount of air to the brain.
But as Tim Shaw put it all those years ago – that’s not all.
Newton’s Law of Motion also comes into play. Newton, for all those who were asleep between Year 7 and Year 10, is the guy who allegedly discovered gravity after being bopped on the scone by a rogue Granny Smith.
He also (in his spare time no doubt) came up with a set of laws which explain the forces acting on an object, and its motion due to those forces. You know the sort of thing – “every action has an equal and opposite reaction” is one of the popular bastardisations.
In simple terms though, here’s what Newton had to say.
First, if a body is moving, it will keep moving until it gets hit. Second, a body that gets hit will accelerate in the direction of the force that hit it, and a small body hit by a big force, accelerates faster. Third, the force will create an effect on the body it hits.
In rugby terms, we might read Newton’s boffinesque ramblings to say that a Wallaby running with a ball, will keep running with that ball until he gets hit. So will a Springbok.
If that Wallaby is small, and he collides with a big Springbok, he’ll accelerate in the direction of that collision, usually backwards.
Finally, the collision will create an effect on the small Wallaby equal to the force of the hit. That effect could be lots of things, but it might be musculoskeletal effect like a caved-in ribcage; perhaps a physiological effect like being completely buggered; or even a mental effect like a “Jeez, these blokes are smashing us!”.
However it manifests, it’s not pretty.
The last scientific point to make for the day is that research into cognitive maturity doesn’t support the Wallabies youth selection policy either. (“OK Logan” I hear you say drily. “Cognitive maturity…please explain?”).
Umm…how about if I said that new MRI studies of the developing brains of normal adolescents clearly show that the physical development of the pre-frontal cortex is not complete until the mid-twenties. (“Yeah, nice one brainiac. Try again.”)
OK – see, the prefrontal cortex is the bit in your head that deals with lots of neat stuff like mature judgment, seeing into the future, seeing how your behavior can affect the future, associating cause and effect, and planning and decision-making.
So these recent studies show that because physical and intellectual maturity happen before cognitive maturity, you can be big, strong and intelligent by age 20, but not very good at making intelligent decisions in complex high-pressure situations. Situations like, say, driving fast on a wet night, or playing Test match football in front of 70,000 manic Afrikaaners.
Is that enough theory for one day? Probably. It is a Monday after all.
The point of it all is that for all the skill and flair of this Wallaby team, they consistently fall down in the areas we’ve talked about above – mental function, physicality, and decision making.
Their defence, which used to be a weapon, and a matter of some pride to Wallaby supporters, is now disorganised and paper thin.
There are occasional strong hits, but there’s no such thing as a consistent straight line, or the necessary intelligent communication to keep the line intact after several phases. It’s pretty rare that the Wallabies these days sustain eight or more defensive phases without conceding a line break and/or a try.
Why is that?
In the most recent Test, it’s partly about the fatigue of altitude. But generally it has to do with colliding with objects of greater mass.
Guys like Dean Mumm and Richard Brown are just not physically imposing enough to win the contact battle. Nor is Saia Faingaa, despite his willingness, and neither is James O’Connor.
We’re just not big enough in key positions to win the battle of physics.
The Wallaby decision making too is poor, particularly when we lose the old heads. Against South Africa, our lineout functioned well until Nathan Sharpe left the field, after which it became a liability. What was with the long throw to no-one over the back of the lineout ten metres from our own line?
In the tackle, decision making was also suspect. Several times players put their teammates under pressure with funny little pops and flicks, such as Mitchell off the ground to Pocock around the 44 minute mark.
A couple of other general points to note. Matt Giteau, for instance, refuses to play the ball at the line, preferring instead to pass well before he reaches the defence. Watch the leadup to the Mumm try at 25 minutes, where he has the chance to draw Schalk Burger and take him out of the play, but elects to pass and let Burger drift, which eventually closes down Mitchell and forces him to centre kick.
Contrast this with Quade Cooper’s play to James O’Connor in from the blind wing. Unfortunately, O’Connor couldn’t handle, but the no-look pass took place so close to the defensive line, that you couldn’t even see it happen.
While we’re on Cooper, those who like to generalise about the poor state of his defence should have a look at the front-on vision of his try-saving tackle on Pierre Spies. Cooper might be a tad lazy from time to time, but you could never doubt his courage in throwing himself under the Spies Express and saving a certain score under the posts.
The talent and flair is there, but unfortunately for this Wallaby side, things don’t ease off next week.
They actually go upwards a further 124 metres to Bloemfontein, so the altitude side of things is not getting any easier. The Boks aren’t getting any smaller. The Wallabies aren’t getting any older or smarter.
All of which leads Boyle, Fick, Newton and I to a scientific conclusion. This Tri-Nations could get uglier.