While premierships are not won in the month of March, the fortunes of the North Queensland Cowboys in 2011 may very well hinge on their opening match against rivals, the Brisbane Broncos, at Suncorp Stadium.
Indeed, the last time the Cowboys defeated the Broncos in the opening round of an NRL season was back in 2007 – a year where North Queensland fell one game short of a second grand final birth.
Since then, the Cowboys have lost their past seven meetings against Brisbane, and in that period, they have failed to make the finals despite a talented roster.
No doubt their opening 30-24 loss to the Broncos last season set the tone for a disastrous year, winning only five matches en route to finishing in second-last position on the NRL ladder in front of salary cap cheats, the Melbourne Storm.
If the Cowboys are to take any solace from a miserable 2010 season, Neil Henry’s men only need to look at the recent exploits of last year’s grand finalists, the Sydney Roosters. The Roosters made the premiership decider twelve months after claiming the wooden spoon.
In their bid for 2011 glory, the Cowboys have had a major reshuffle to their squad, with Cowboys stalwarts such as Carl Webb, Steve Southern, Luke O’Donnell, Willie Mason and Ty William all bidding farewell to Dairy Farmers stadium at the end of last season.
Webb and Southern were not granted contract extensions as both have been affected by suspensions and injuries respectively. O’Donnell left the Cowboys because he had lost hope in regaining his Kangaroos Test jersey while Mason simply wanted to shore up his future by going to the English Super League. Williams on the other hand retired due to constant injury.
In their place, a welcome mixture of youth and experience has made its way to North Queensland. Antonio Winterstein, Ashton Sims and Ben Jones are all capable of complementing the firepower of Matt Bowen and Johnathon Thurston in attack.
Dallas Johnson also adds some much needed steel in defence, which will help the Cowboys drastically improve on a shocking 2010 season.
The injury to major signing Brent Tate however is a body blow to the Cowboys chances of making the finals. Tate re-established himself as one of the NRL’s best backline players, forcing his way back into the Kangaroos squad last season before succumbing to a serious knee injury in the Four Nations final against New Zealand.
Tate has since undergone a full knee reconstruction – the third of his career, and is almost certain to miss all of season 2011.
As with most seasons come and gone however, the Cowboys hopes of making the NRL finals will yet again rest on the shoulders of attacking maestro’s Matt Bowen and Johnathon Thurston.
If both Bowen and Thurston can manage to ply their trade together on a consistent basis, the chemistry shared between these two players is enough to tear apart the tightest of defences.
If injury strikes either player however, the Cowboys presence near the bottom of the table will be prolonged for another 12 months.
Why they’ll win:
- Thurston and Bowen to lead the attack
- New buys Winterstein and Johnson are class players (although Winterstein has suffered a broken jaw and will be out for 6-8 weeks)
Why they won’t:
- Any injury to Thurston spells doom to finals hopes
- Consistent underachievers who find ways to lose matches
TAB Sportsbet odds
Premiership winner – $34.00
Wooden Spoon – $6.00Additions: Antonio Winterstein, Ashton Sims, Ben Jones, Blake Leary, Brent Tate, Dallas Johnson, Dominic Walsh, Gavin Cooper, Glenn Hall, Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa, Lancen Joudo, Rick Thorby, Tariq Sims.
Losses: Steve Rapira (Warriors), Anthony Watts (Sydney Roosters), Luke O’Donnell (Huddersfield Giants – Super League), Ty Williams (Retired), Carl Webb (Parramatta), Nick Slyney (Released), Willie Mason (Hull Kingston Rovers – Super League), Arana Taumata (Penrith), John Williams (Cronulla).
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