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Reds Will Genia is caught in the Hurricanes defence in the Super Rugby match at Westpac Stadium, New Zealand, Saturday, April 30, 2011. (AAP Images/NZPA, Ross Setford)
What a difference a successful penalty kick can make. If Aaron Cruden, who had kicked poorly all night, had missed that dying seconds’ shot from 35m, the Reds would have defeated the Hurricanes and moved to 43 points on the table, equal leaders of the tournament with the Blues.
As I have pointed out several times, there are two competitions in play in the new Super Rugby format.
The first involves winning one of the three country based conferences. The winning teams get home finals in a six-team finals format. The top two overall winners avoid the first round of finals and play their semi-final at home.
Right now, the Reds are facing the prospect of being third-placed overall, although the leading New Zealand teams, the Blues, the Crusaders and the Highlanders could cannibalise each other’s chances by taking wins off each other.
This process has already started with the Highlanders defeating the Crusaders two weeks ago and then the Blues defeating the Highlanders last weekend.
The Stormers victory over the Sharks, second-ranked team in the South African conference, suggests that they will win all the second round of local derbies matches.
The Reds should do the same with their local derbies against the Rebels (next week) and then the Brumbies and the Western Force.
Only the match against the Force at Perth should pose difficulties.
The Force were terrific against the Crusaders in a match that was an absolute thriller right down to the last plays.
The Reds, though, still have to play the Crusaders and Blues in two home matches, and the Chiefs at Hamilton which will be the easiest of these matches by a long stretch.
The Waratahs were able to make up a little ground on the points table against the Reds. The gap between the teams was 11 points. It is now 8 points.
The Waratahs have an easy run home (as far as any match in Super Rugby is easy). They play the Force, Highlanders, the Brumbies and the Lions at home, and the Sharks and Bulls in South Africa.
Although this run home is much easier than that of the Reds, I don’t believe the Waratahs can win the Australian conference. They will be struggling, in my opinion, to make the final six.
I watched the match on Saturday night at SFS from a box behind the posts, courtesy of Qantas and their Great Crusade promotion.
It was noticeable from this angle that the Waratahs pose no threats to their opposition when they move the ball out wide. The ball is merely passed out by each runner who moves across the line to present his inside shoulder to the outside shoulder of the runner.
This line of attack is a recipe for being smashed in the tackle. Runners should present their outside shoulder to the inside (weak) shoulder of the defender.
Why is the backs coach of the Waratahs, Scott Bowen, allowing this method to persist?
It was also noticeable that there were no other runners coming from depth giving an option to a playmaker.
What this meant on Saturday night is that the defence had the simple task of having to identify the runner and then tackle him. Contrast this with, say, the Reds and the way they flood the area behind the playmaker Quade Cooper with runners coming from everywhere.
It is a defensive nightmare trying to work out who is going to get the pass from Cooper, and when. Even good defensive sides have difficulty coping with this attacking system. It is a reason why, despite the loss to the Hurricanes (a hoodoo team for the Reds), the Reds are still very much in contention for a title win.
All the leading teams in the competition, in fact, with the exception of the Waratahs, score tries from set moves, and this includes the improving Western Force who have Phil Blake (the former coach of Manly) as their skills coach. The backs coach of the Reds is Jim McKay, a former Warringah and Randwick player.
My question is this: why does NSW rugby allow its coaching talent to go to other franchises when this talent is badly needed in the Waratahs franchise?
Behind this question is the fear that the next coach of the Waratahs will be Michael Foley, the present forwards coach.
Admittedly, it was a damp evening but the crowd at the SFS is down to 20,000 or so true believers.
When you compare the sparkling rugby of the Reds, the Force, the Crusaders and the Hurricanes (admittedly only last weekend) with the lacklustre stuff the Waratahs are delivering you have to wonder why the board of the Waratahs isn’t sending out signals that it is looking for someone like Alan Gaffney or Todd Louden to take over next season.
I suppose the main positive from the round as far as the Waratahs are concerned, aside from the chance to make up some points on the Reds, is the fact that they won a reasonably comfortable victory over the Rebels even though the referee was their nemesis (14 losses out of 15 matches), Jonathan Kaplan.
Perhaps knowing their record of losing when Kaplan is refereeing them concentrated the minds of the Waratahs.
They not only won the match, they also conceded few penalties (7 as opposed to the 9 against the Rebels) which means they won the battle of the penalty count, too.