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It’s often said in AFL and NRL circles that teams are entering, or are in the middle of what’s referred to as a ‘premiership window’; that period of time where the planets align, the players are at the top of their game, and the team and club is united in their best shot at glory.
Collingwood and St.George/Illawarra are definitely in the middle of such a window, and perhaps teams like the Stormers, Reds, and Manly are about to enter one.
Teams like the Crusaders and Geelong and even the Melbourne Storm might be about to re-enter a window after a short time just outside.
Admittedly, the salary cap plays a fairly major part in the timing of these windows in the NRL and AFL, and AFL sides get the double whammy of the draft as well.
No such impediments or constraints have played this role in Super Rugby’s history, meaning the championships shared by only four teams in 15 years is testament to the rugby talent and programs developed by those teams over their championship years.
Of course, that’s all about to change from next year, for the Australian teams at least, with the ARU imposing a salary cap on the five local teams.
And this alone got me thinking, could this season be the best and perhaps last chance for the current crop of Waratahs to deliver a title?
Now, you could very well mount a decent argument as to whether the ‘Tahs are actually in a championship window or not; they’re certainly not dominating all-comers like a Collingwood or a St.George/Illawarra, or even the Reds and Crusaders.
But given they’re about to enter their fifth playoffs series in seven seasons, I don’t think it’s too big a stretch to suggest that the Waratahs are still in a period of sustained success.
Even if we only go back three seasons and add in this year, the ‘Tahs have finished no lower than fifth (below four-team finals series), and were beaten finalists in 2008 and semi-finalists last season, to go with this year’s fifth place in the new six-team format.
Then, after I considered the likely financial impacts on future success in New South Wales, the personnel angle presented itself.
On Saturday night, the Waratahs faithful farewelled front row stalwart Al Baxter after announcing his retirement, and at least three departing players as well, with Wallaby scrumhalf Luke Burgess heading to France, young lock Pat O’Connor heading to Japan, and perhaps the most painful of all, Kurtley Beale accepting the megabucks and future worship feted to him by the Melbourne Rebels.
Even further, imposing lock Sitaleki Timani – who took four seasons to become an overnight sensation this year – has plans to return to Sydney next season, but those plans becoming reality may well hinge on whether he makes Tonga’s or Australia’s Rugby World Cup squad later this year.
And it can’t be assumed that star midfielder Berrick Barnes will be anything more than a week-to-week proposition either, when and if he returns to the field.
In return, only Adam Ashley-Cooper has been confirmed in the ‘gains’ column for 2012. Ben Mowen is playing a nice game of contract negotiations by media, and the whole retirement question won’t leave Phil Waugh alone.
Rocky Elsom is apparently over the line with the ARU, but the Waratahs withdrew an offer for him only last week, and a lack of current options might mean the Wallaby captain plays for someone like the Pokolbin Reds or Forbes Platypi next season, in lieu of a Super Rugby club. Rocky’s situation is still a long way off being James O’Connor-esque in its drama and flip-flopping, but still, he would seem to be rapidly running out of Australian options.
As Roarer Invictus reminded us in the forward vs backs debate only the other week, “forwards win matches, backs determine the score.” The Waratahs’ scrum will be well served next year still, and establishing a forward platform from which to attack isn’t likely to be an issue. However, without the same level of strike power out in the backs, the ‘Tahs might be forced back into a more European style of play, too. And that’s bound to be popular.
Ashley-Cooper has admitted in the months since his surprise departure from the Brumbies that there was indeed a rugby element to his defection, but after the loss of some key players now, it’s probably a good thing he’s going for love too.
Due respect to Daniel Halangahu and Tom Carter, but running off them is not quite the same alluring prospect as running off Barnes and Beale would be. Or Matt Giteau, for that matter.
Nevertheless, the task remains if front of the Waratahs for this year.
After last weekend’s clinical demolition of the hapless/hopeless Brumbies (you can decide which is more appropriate descriptor), the ‘Tahs now face the imposing assignment of taking on the Blues at Auckland’s Eden Park, a venue where it’s emerged they’ve only won once in something like 80 years. Records are meant to be broken, though.
In terms of momentum, the Waratahs have it on tap at the moment, with the Highlanders and Brumbies in the last fortnight only combining for 14 points between them, while the ‘Tahs ran in 72 at the other end.
Semi-final rugby is a whole other beast though, of course, and when you consider the variables coming into play for next year, it quickly becomes apparent that the ‘Tahs better make the most of what they’ve got now if the trophy cabinet at Moore Park is ever to have an occupant.
Mind you, with the way the team has turned around its on-field fortunes since the much publicised fan forum a few weeks ago, maybe that’s the answer right there.
If ‘Tahs fans want a trophy this year, you better lobby Spiro and Leftie and the other Roarers to clear their schedules for the next few Thursdays.