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The 2011 World Cup is one of the most open of recent times and despite the form of Northern Hemisphere teams I believe that only the Tri Nations teams are true contenders.
The Northern Hemisphere teams traditionally struggle in the Southern Hemisphere with a combined total of three wins (this includes the Lions) south of the Equator since the last World Cup.
It took an exceptional team from England to win a World Cup in 2003. In fact, that same team beat the All Blacks in their own back yard just a few months before the tournament kicked off.
That incredible team coached by the best coach in the world at the time managed to win the World Cup by a single drop goal.
There is no team in the Northern Hemisphere that even comes close to matching that 2003 team and as a result I cannot see one of these teams finishing victorious at this year’s World Cup.
To the contenders:
Springboks
The Springboks will arrive in New Zealand with the most capped Springbok squad of all time. Only 12 members of the squad would not have been part of a World Cup before.
Of all the real contenders the Boks have got arguably the toughest opening game of the World Cup. Their game against Wales could provide much needed momentum but it could also cause some real headaches if they lose this one.
The Welsh have built some impressive form lately with a win against England being a real highlight but the fact remains that the Boks have only ever lost one Test to the Dragons and will need to win convincingly to keep their detractors at bay.
The Springbok game plan will be simple and if executed correctly will be very difficult to counter. The Boks have conceded over 300 points in their last 10 Tests against the Wallabies and All Blacks and will be relying heavily on new defensive consultant Jacques Nienaber to instil some structure and starch to the defensive line.
Much will rest on the form of Fourie Du Preez and his ability to land box kicks precisely where his chasing runners will smash the opposition.
It’s no coincidence that he was missing from the ‘Annus Horribilis’ Boks of 2010 after being an integral part of the wonderfully successful 2009 team.
The Bok coaching staff are considered a bit of a joke by the rest of the rugby world and the Springboks will need to rise above the advice of the three ‘not so wise’ men if they are to lift ‘Bill’.
One of the greatest blunders of this comical coaching team is the stubbornness to persist with John Smit as captain.
There is no doubting Smit’s contribution to Springbok rugby over his time in the Springbok jersey.
However, his time is up now and at no time was it more apparent than when Bismarck Du Plessis started against the All Blacks in Port Elizabeth two weeks ago.
Bismarck was the stand out player of the day and lived up to his reputation of being the best hooker in the world. His reaction to being subbed for Smit on 60 minutes said it all.
He knows what the rest of us know, he is a far superior rugby player to John Smit in every single facet of hooker play.
There is no doubting that this Springbok team has the ability, experience and know how to win the World Cup. Their success will be dependent on executing a limited game plan to perfection…anything less than perfect will result in disappointment.
New Zealand
The bookies have them as favourites and why wouldn’t they. The All Blacks have lost only three times at home in the last eight years!
The good news from a Springbok perspective is that two of those losses were to the men in Green and Gold. What the bookies can’t factor in however is the pressure the All Blacks will start to feel as the tournament progresses.
New Zealanders will simply not accept the All Blacks losing this World Cup.
Dan Carter admitted in 2007 to feeling the pressure of the fans and he was in France, 1000s of kilometres away. What is that pressure going to be like day in and day out?
In addition to this, Henry has still not decided who his best XV is.
Richie McCaw seems to be getting away with less at the breakdown and has been flustered by the opposition in recent Tests. Mils Muliaina seems to be a protected species despite the fact that Israel Dagg is arguably the most attacking full back in the world.
Zac Guildford’s selection ahead of Hosea Gear raised many eyebrows and this was compounded when Guildford had a forgettable performance in the Tri Nations decider in Brisbane.
Woodcock and Afoa, two perennial favourites of Henry’s will need to have the tournaments of their lives to repay his faith in them.
Another issue that most non Kiwis are unaware of is the utter disdain New Zealander’s outside of Auckland have for people from the City of Sails.
Aucklanders are not so affectionately referred to as JAFA’s (Just Another “Frigging” Aucklander).
Auckland has roughly 30 percent of the population of New Zealand and the All Blacks will play five of their seven games in Auckland if they make the final.
The other two games will be played in Hamilton (against Japan) and Wellington (against Canada). The All Blacks will not even be making an appearance on a rugby paddock on the South Island during the tournament!
The All Blacks will want to harness the support of all of New Zealand to win the World Cup at home a’la Springboks of 1995 but won’t be able to do this by not playing any major games outside of Eden Park.
While their successful home record is unquestionable and the talent at their disposal extraordinary the big question remains whether these All Blacks can cope with the pressure their own fans will apply.
Australia:
The Wallabies won’t be lacking confidence after their Tri Nations success that included beating the All Blacks and winning in South Africa.
The Australian media is already talking up a Wallabies versus All Blacks final which only spells disaster for the Wallabies based on recent history. The Wallabies haven’t beaten the All Blacks in New Zealand since 2001 and have lost 12 of the last 15 to the old enemy.
Robbie Deans made a bold decision to axe Rocky Elsom so close to the World Cup and this is a decision that should reap dividends for the Wallabies. Elsom is simply not a captain and has been replaced by James Horwill who is a natural leader of men.
‘Phoenix’ Horwill has been part of some terrible losses for both the Wallabies and the Reds in the past but has risen from the ashes as a Super Rugby and Tri Nations winning captain within the space of two months.
With Danny Care from England injured, Will Genia finds himself the undisputed world’s best scrumhalf at the World Cup and his form and decision making will go a long way in determining the success of the Wallabies. Much is made of the competition between Dan Carter and Quade Cooper for the title of ‘World’s best flyhalf’ when the comparison should be between Genia and Carter as to who is the most influential player in the world right now.
Genia has been criticised in the past for taking poor options but in 2011 under the tutelage of Ewen McKenzie he seems to have developed a sixth sense for making the right decision almost every time.
The big question mark over the Wallabies will be their ability to front against the physical forwards of the Northern Hemisphere and whether they can string a number of wins together in a row.
The Wallabies have showed glimpses of magic under Robbie Deans but are yet to record three wins consecutively.
Quade Cooper has recently made himself ‘Enemy No. 1’ in New Zealand with his antics to get under Richie McCaw’s skin and it will be interesting to see how he handles the negative press and public condemnation that is sure to come his way from the New Zealanders.
The Wallabies will feel that they should be in the mix come semi final time but will likely need to deal with England to make it to the decider.
England have had the wood over the Wallabies in World Cups with wins in 1995, 2003 and 2007 all resulting in the Wallabies catching the earlier Qantas flight home.
This current Wallaby crop could potentially develop into one of the great Wallaby teams of all time in a few years but there is doubt about their ability to win three consecutive knockout games in a row in a country where they haven’t won in 10 years.
After all of my comments it’s time to make a prediction:
I can see the Springboks topping their pool and beating the Irish in a quarter final to face the All Blacks in a semi final.
The All Blacks should top their pool despite facing the French before breezing past the Scots in a quarter final.
On the other side of the competition, the Wallabies will win their pool and sneak it against Wales in the quarter final before facing England in the semi final.
England will top their ‘Pool of Death’ and have to beat Les Bleus on their way to meeting the Wallabies.
I’m not willing to make a call on these games but I do look forward to being there and being part of the crowd at Eden Park on these two great occasions in six weeks time!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.