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Australia's captain John Eales holds aloft the Webb Ellis trophy after his side won the final of the Rugby World Cup against France at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, Wales in this Saturday, Nov. 6, 1999 file photo. (AP Photo/Adam Butler).
Seven days to go until kick-off, and as the excitement builds for the 2011 Rugby World Cup, the time has come to shame my predictions and general observations on the top nine contenders, or at least as I see them.
Pool A:
New Zealand:
Has any sports team ever been under so much pressure? The tournament returns to New Zealand with the perennial favourites trophy-less for the last 24 years.
Given the All Black-dominance across the board in this period, except when competing for the William Webb Ellis trophy, the fact they haven’t won it since 1987 is remarkable.
The 2011 All Blacks were looking all-conquering and with the experience the likes of McCaw, Muliaina, Carter, Thorne and Mealamu bring to the table, a second victory looked inevitable; then came Brisbane and the injuries.
Suddenly the bubble has burst, they are no longer the untouchable force of two weeks ago.
Scratch beneath the surface and there are a number of players in the squad who have not been tested under pressure – the likes of the Franks brothers, Crockett, Whitelock and Guildford.
Couple that with the injuries to Kieran Read and Adam Thompson and the form of Muliana, Weepu and Jane, and these are worrying times for All Black fans.
I would also suggest that Mealamu, Woodcock and Afoa are past their best.
From the above, you might think I am writing the All Blacks off.
Nope. Not even close. Any side containing Carter, McCaw, Thorne, Nonu, Conrad Smith (dark horse for player of the tournament) and the strength in depth, to leave the likes of Gear, Sivivatu and Ranger at home is going to be formidable.
On their day, the likes of France, Australia or maybe even England (!) could topple the All Blacks in a one-off Test, but I just can’t see it. But sport is forever throwing up its surprises.
Prediction: Winners
France:
For all the criticism that Marc Lievremont has received, for my money he has developed a dangerous-looking French outfit, as well as a more consistent side to the flaky French of old.
They will be very strong up front, and with canny number nines in either Parra or Yachvilli and flair in the outside backs they would be underestimated at their peril.
My main reservations with this side are:
Back Row: Oedraogo and Dusautoir are fantastic defenders who tackle for 80 minutes but with either Picamoles or Harinordoquy at No.8, they have lacked the power to put physical defences on the back foot.
Centres: This should probably say centre/full-back or any position in which Damien Traille is selected. I have never been convinced by him. Sure, he is a physical presence and has a howitzer of a right boot, but beyond that he has been made to look good by the people around him, particularly Jauzion and Michalak.
Prediction: No repeat of their victory over New Zealand leads to a quarter-final defeat at the hands of England
Pool B:
England:
As an England fan, I find it hard to know what to think about the 2011 vintage.
There are a lot of players who have been there and done that at the highest level, which will count for a lot, but their creative limitations, especially at 12 and 13 will be shown up once they come up against the big guns from the Tri Nations.
Watching the side dominate Wales in their recent encounter at the Millennium Stadium and fail to cross the whitewash was frustrating and harked back to the Jack Rowell-era when John Callard’s boot was so potent.
There are some young guns who will continue to make a mark on the world stage in this tournament. Youngs, Lawes, Croft Ashton and maybe Wood to name a few.
However, I see England being a more major threat in 2015, once the creative issues have been resolved (hopefully).
Prediction: Grinding out victories against Scotland and Argentina, and a quarter-final victory over France results in a clash with Australia in the semi-finals.
This is not the soft Wallaby side of 2007, raising the white flag when Sheridan’s name appeared in the starting XV. Australia pull away in the second half and send England home disappointed.
Scotland:
Andy Robinson has built a Scotland side much in his own mould, hard-nosed, but lacking creativity.
Rudriagh Jackson is an exponential improvement on Dan Parks, providing an element of guile to the backline. However, since the tragic retirement of Thom Evans, the Scots have lost the cutting edge.
Despite their limitations behind the scrum, they have an underrated pack of forwards, with the second row, a particular area of strength.
Prediction: Narrow defeat to England and victory over Argentina leads to a quarter-final versus the hosts at Eden Park. Thanks for coming.
Argentina:
The darlings of the 2007 World Cup, with Hernandez’s magic and Contepomi/Pichot calling the shots; not this time.
Although Contepomi is still there, the supporting cast behind the scrum is significantly less potent.
In the scrum, they must always be respected, and with gnarled veterans such as Roncero, Albacete, Scelzo, Ledesma and Fernandez Lobbe, still in the squad, they will cause headaches for any opponent.
Unfortunately the savvy and well-prepared opponents in the group stage (England and Scotland) will minimise their advantage at scrum-time and prosper out wide.
Prediction: Defeats to England and Scotland (narrowly) spells an early bath.
Pool C:
Australia:
For my money, coached by the finest coach of his generation, the Wallabies seem to be peaking at the right time.
The selection of Radike Samo at the problematic No. 8 slot was a stroke of genius and fills the void left by the powerful, if a little one-dimensional, Wycliff Palu.
Not the sexiest of selections, but Pat McCabe at 12 has been a revelation, providing a bit of steel to what appeared to be a frail back line.
While it is not ideal to have your fly half defending on the wing from set piece, when that fly half is Quade Cooper, you make the adjustment.
Full of confidence and led by the steely giant, James Horwill, the first real test for the Australian side might just be against their trans-Tasman rivals in the final.
This is perhaps a slight exaggeration, but the blend of pace and skill out wide where Beale, Ioane and Cooper send fear into any opponent and a quiet efficiency and hardness up front driven by the Horwill, Pocock, Moore and Vickerman will be too much for any sides outside of New Zealand.
Moreover, in Will Genia they have the finest no. 9 since Joost Van De Westhuizen graced the field.
Genia, incidentally, is my prediction for player of the tournament (should the decision be objective and not handed to a Kiwi by rights!)
Prediction: Cruise through the groups to meet South Africa (see below) in the quarter-finals and then England in the semi-finals.
Both games start close but the Wallaby firepower out wide sees them through.
The final against an All Black side seeking revenge is a step too far.
Ireland:
The team in turmoil during the build-up. Seemingly lacking direction despite a side containing two former Lions skippers.
What has become of the Golden Generation of Irish rugby?
Still possessing game-breakers in the likes of Kearney, Bowe and O’ Driscoll as well as underrated forwards like Heaslip and Ferris, they have the talent to trouble any side, but as with recent World Cups, one suspects they will underachieve.
Prediction: Can’t believe their luck to meet Wales in the quarter-final, but the smiles turn to frowns when Wales strangle them in a close encounter. A missed opportunity, again.
Pool D:
Wales:
The ups and downs of the past few seasons continue.
Packed with young talent, especially at numbers 6 and 7, where skipper Warburton has the ability to join Pocock as the heir to McCaw’s throne, as the finest breakaway in the world.
Match that with the bulk of Roberts in the centre, the nous of Hook, the boot of Byrne and the all-round pestilence of Mike Phillips, nobody will be relishing an encounter with the Welsh.
The major issue they may have is the limitations of the coaching set-up.
Prediction: Lucky to meet an under-cooked and over-the-hill Springbok outfit in the group stage, they march into the quarter-finals to meet Ireland.
Having safely navigated that, they are ousted by New Zealand in an entertaining contest, the result of which is never in doubt.
South Africa:
How a proud rugby nation has allowed the farce that is PDV run the set-up for so long is a mystery. A disastrous campaign in New Zealand will no doubt put an end to it.
Packed with superstars who are past their best, including the skipper John Smit, the side looks good on paper if it was 2007. It is not.
In the backs, Jaque Fourie is world class and I would have Morne Steyn kick for my life, but they lack the cutting edge and element of surprise that is required.
Up front, not being able to pick their strongest 8, so as to accommodate Smit is a huge disadvantage. Bismark must be furious.
On their day, they can still bring enough to the table to beat anyone but over a seven-week tournament, the old guard will be found out.
Prediction: Shock loss to a maverick Wales side in the group stage leads to a semi-final against the inform Wallaby side and an early flight back to face the music in Jo’burg.
Thoughts?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.