It’s time to nail your Rugby World Cup predictions hard and fast to the mast. The concerns held by so many about the All Blacks’ capacity to secure RWC victory in this, our seventh tournament, are about to dissipate.

That’s right folks. I am thoroughly persuaded that New Zealand’s First XV will return the William Webb Ellis to its rightful place of abode.

What’s more; McCaw, Carter and Co will be so utterly convincing in the process that the curse of choker, croaker, and RWC joker will be put to rest forever.

And here’s six robust reasons why. One for each RWC tournament held to date:

1. We’ve finally faced our demons

With the exception of New Zealand’s victory at the inaugural 1987 tournament, the All Blacks have an entrenched record of epic failure that confounds rugby’s best thinkers. England’s head coach Martin Johnson is one of them.

“I think of all the teams the All Blacks lose less games than anyone, on a yearly basis, probably consistently over the last 100 years. They’re not used to losing.”

Johnson is correct. The All Blacks hold an unrivalled 81 percent test record, which theoretically, should deliver comparative results on the Rugby World Cup stage. But not so. Not remotely so.

It is the white elephant in the All Blacks locker-room that they’ve never acknowledged. Until now. Which is why it was heartening to hear Conrad Smith speak freely about the stone in the All Blacks’ shoe at yesterday’s press conference.

“We haven’t won many of these tournaments in case you haven’t noticed. We are determined to change that. So we have to face reality and deal with it. The best way to deal with it is to deal with it front-on which we didn’t do in the past – we sort of swept it away and said we are a different team and it’s not going to affect us. But it’s something we have to deal with; it’s part of our history.”

It is indeed Conrad. Glad you can admit it. Like the alcoholic disempowered by his own ignorance and denial. He must first admit the problem and take ownership before it can be effectively addressed.

So now our First XV has confessed and confronted their systemic four-yearly cycle of defeat. Meaning the pressure-valve is released and this year’s tournament can be embraced from a position of positivity, not fear.

Because what they’ve feared to this point, has invariably come upon them.

2. Humility: It took a while but we’ve got there

Pride comes before a fall. And oh how our mighty have fallen.

Again, harping back to RWC2007, the images transmitted back to NZ of All Blacks living large out of French hotels and frolicking by the seaside showed utter contempt for the business at hand.

It was a masterful plan by the European hosts, to mesmerize our men with French delicacies while fifteen French Foreign Legionnaires masquerading as rugby players crept up undetected and ripped our hearts out. Harsh lesson learned.

But clearly necessary and one worth learning to keep our chaps in check this time round.

There is a distinct tinge of humility about this All Blacks camp that is refreshing and evidenced through their grassroots activity. The approach has been fostered by management and manifest through players seasoned enough to keep foolish pride at bay.

The humble road also prevents our Kiwi demigods from getting too far ahead of themselves by treating each and every match as if it were the Grand Final.

Today, assistant coach Steve Hansen confirmed a near top-tier line-up will start each and every match, beginning with Tonga on Friday. It is the right approach.

This healthy respect for lesser ranked nations ensures McCaw and Co do NOT drop their guard, not even for moment, as the outcome usually involves an adjusted worldview looking up from the canvas.

And there’s no harsher canvas than the one in your own back yard. Like Eden Park.

3. Home ground advantage

Speaking of home-sweet-home, the advantage of hosting rights cannot be underestimated.

For a decent chunk of Henry’s Canterbury-based players who have spent 2011 on the road, six weeks of home games for the tournament that really matters is an absolute blessing. And one they will thrive in.

There is a strength that can only be derived from one’s countrymen, especially 65,000 of them all at once, which is Eden Park’s upgraded capacity.

It is the invisible wave of public support that carried the Springboks to victory over the All Blacks in the historic 1995 RWC Grand Final.

For Francois Pienaar and his team, it was the convergence of home-ground factors led by President elect, Nelson Mandela, that made all the difference.

Oh, and food-poisoned opponents. But let’s not go there.

I’m not saying it is onus on Prime Minister John Key to wield the same influence as South Africa’s global statesman. Because he couldn’t.

Although he’ll give it a damn good try with an election just around the corner.

But whatever momentum PM Key cannot generate from the top down will be more than compensated from the ground up. It will produce the kind of raw energy that could power-up our clean-green country till the next World Cup.

Conversely, for travelling nations, beyond the hoopla it is a lonely road. Granted, the Aussies are only a hop, skip and Kangaroo jump across the Tasman. But even for them, a six-week leave of absence still requires an exceptional level of focus to see the assignment through.

A tough ask. How much more difficult for nations whose homes are half a world away?

4. The perfect blend of strike-power and experience

This All Blacks squad comprising 16 forwards and 14 backs is the most experienced ever assembled for a Rugby World Cup assignment.

With 1,133 test-caps collectively, Richie McCaw is not mentoring wannabes. He’s a leader amongst leaders.

That experience underpins a liberal share of flare and X-factor. As to the final composition Coach Henry decides to appoint for each match, he has the option to lean towards flare in the Pool rounds and experience in the latter.

The exception of course will be if freaks like Israel Dagg and Sonny Bill Williams perform so outrageously they demand inclusion. Either way Henry is a lucky man because he has genuine options.

There’s only one player in my book who might need training wheels on the big stage; Zac Guildford.

The Canterbury winger unraveled so remarkably in his last outing against the Wallabies that I wonder if the psychological wounds can heal in time.

That kind of mental baggage is a liability in the heat of this kind of battle. If there are three positions that must operate beyond mental vulnerability, it is the back three – the last line of defense – the first wave of counter-attack.

But in terms of our elect 30, assistant coach Wayne Smith articulates our position best:

“We just pick the best players that play the best. You want people who can take the high ball, you want people who are able to chase, you want players with high work-rate who can counter-attack, and off phase play get from their side of the field to the other side. You want high number of touches and good ability in the backfield.”

And so say all of us.

5. Failure: Our best medicine

A contradiction of sorts I know. But for the top ranked team in the world, two consecutive fails on the cusp of the tournament that really matters is the best preparation we could have hoped for. And here’s why.

As previously outlined (refer point One), losing is not an All Blacks’ habit.

Meaning the pendulum has swung as far as possible to the losing end of the spectrum. Now it must swing back, and the timing couldn’t be better.

I would even go so far as to say, with the pinnacle tournament in mind, that the All Blacks needed to lose those last two Tri-Nations matches as desperately as Australia and South Africa needed to win them.

Confidence is not what we need at the foot of this mountain. The All Blacks know they are capable of climbing the mountain because they’re used to living on top of it, with the exception of four-yearly tumbles.

What the All Blacks needed, which only the pain of consecutive defeats can engender, is a mongrel-factor that doesn’t want to climb the mountain, but flatten it, and every living creature on it.

That’s the kind of killer instinct from the get-go that has sadly lacked in our national team on the odd occasion. It is the weak underbelly of All Blacks rugby. The remedy is a couple of swift kicks in the gut, which is exactly what the Springboks and Wallabies did to us on our last two outings.

And for that we shall be eternally grateful.

6. Our competitors just aren’t good enough

For 2011, the world has already seen the best of what nations ranked two (Australia) and three (South Africa) can bring to the RWC table.

It is they, not the All Blacks, who peaked too soon – if you can call it that.

Australia under their rookie captain James Horwill will flat-line in the big time in the same way Quade Cooper did in their opening match against the All Blacks. And that on the back of their Manu Samoa spanking, season opener.

I’m picking the Wallabies to entertain but not sustain at the level required to achieve their desired result.

The Springboks have failed to fire all year and will barely hold together for the duration of the tournament. This year the mighty Boks are winging it.

Veteran Captain John Smit is living on borrowed time through some inordinate obligation by Coach Peter de Villiers.

Their default kick-and-chase setting won’t cut it this time round, especially with the potency in behind and out wide of their opponents. I’m expecting Manu Samoa and Wales to take them to the wire. If Fiji turn up to play it will be interesting.

Unfortunately for the defending champions, coach de Villiers’ bag of tricks is full of air, much like his banter.

But de Villiers has got nothing on French coach Marc Lievremont when it comes to uninspired utterances.

Earlier this year, Lievremont’s rant in response to his team’s 21-22 shock loss to the Italians broke every conceivable rule in the Coaches Manual of Best Practice. Specifically, Chapter 11 on ‘How to handle defeat’.

“Do I feel responsible for that? No, they (the players) betrayed us, they have betrayed me and they have betrayed the French national team shirt. In terms of the tactics deployed, it defied belief. I did not recognise anything in their performance that we had worked on. Do you really think that I told them to play as they did against Italy? I was ashamed. I do not have the impression we asked them to walk on the moon. I do not ask for complicated things.”

But wait, there’s more…

“This match was an hallucination. I do not want to absolve myself of blame but they invented things on the pitch. They are lacking in courage. They are good guys but cursed with what is obviously cowardice.”

Wow. That was awesome. It was either a mega-meltdown or a cold and calculated chastisement that even had hard-man Sebastien Chabal in tears.

Can’t wait for Lievremont’s response should the French suffer defeat at the hands of Japan, Canada or Tonga.

Ruling by fear and trepidation is not the recommended approach on any level, meaning the French pose lesser of a threat than they ever have.

Not sure whether that’s a good think or a bad thing. In any case, Coach Lievremont is talking about fielding an under-strength side against the All Blacks in the Pool rounds so perhaps that debate can wait.

Turns out Lievremont doesn’t like the Poms too much either.

“We don’t really like the English, and it’s better to say that than be hypocritical.”

Brutally honest isn’t he? But then, I don’t like the Poms much either. Although they are deserving of mention, if out of courtesy for want of anything else.

Captain Lewis Moody is sidelined for their opener, which isn’t exactly the way to open a RWC campaign. I’m excited about their Lomu-like centre Manu Tuilagi. This young talent will be a household name before the tournament is over. Hopefully the unlikely star from the Pacific gets opportunity to shine.

Because the subconscious tendency of those inside him revolves around eight forwards, a halfback and the boot of Jonny Wilkinson. They can’t help it. It is a disease. Like foot and mouth.

England’s first-up match against Argentina on Saturday will be a blinder. And the first glimpse of the Brits arsenal since they were thumped by our Maori All Blacks about this time last year.

No, there’s nothing about the opposition that will cause Graham Henry’s camp to lose any sleep over the next six weeks. I tend to agree with Jonah Lomu’s sentiment on this one. The All Black’s greatest enemy is actually themselves.
And because those internal factors have effectively been resolved (Refer points 1-5 above), the outcome this year is a foregone conclusion.

Graham Henry and All Blacks numbered 1 – 30 will win Rugby World Cup 2011. And win it well.

Enough talk. Time for action. Place your bets on Black.