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With the NRL finals beginning this weekend, four teams will be one step closer to the 2011 premiership, while two team’s seasons will be over.
We analyse why the top four teams should win, and why the bottom 4 teams could win.
Melbourne (1) vs Newcastle (8)
Why the Storm should win:
When the two teams played in April, the Storm gave the Knights a 42-12 touch up, which gives a clear indication of the difference between the two sides. I simply cannot see an upset brewing here.
Melbourne’s tight defence and expansive attack should overwhelm the Knights early and often. The Storm are also one of the fittest teams in the competition, whilst Newcastle appear to run out of gas in the second half of many games, particularly of late. Throw in Bellamy’s sublime coaching, and the home field advantage, and the Storm should prove too classy for the Knights to overcome.
Why the Knights could win:
Newcastle certainly have the ability to put points on the board. Four times this season they have racked up 40 or more points, and the side contains some potent attacking players, led by Kurt Gidley and Akuila Uate. If the Knights can stun the Storm with a couple of early tries, it will put the pressure right back on the minor premiers.
The Knights also have nothing to lose. Everyone expects Melbourne to not only win, but win convincingly. As such, the Knights should approach the game carefree and loose. And everyone knows how dangerous a team can be when it has nothing to lose.
Manly (2) vs North Queensland (7)
Why the Sea Eagles should win:
Manly have quality players right across the park, providing opponents with no obvious weaknesses to exploit. They had the second best defence in the competition, and also scored the most points of any team, combining excellent structured play with the outstanding individual abilities of players like Brett Stewart, Will Hopate and Jamie Lyon.
Their young halves, Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans, have led the team beautifully, belying their young age. And the Manly forward pack contains a nice mix of athleticism, mongrel and go-forward.
Manly are both well coached and contain plenty of talent. Put simply, they are a very, very good football team.
Why the Cowboys could win:
In the past, if you had shut down the brilliance of Johnathan Thurston, and to a lesser extent, Matt Bowen, than you would have defeated the Cowboys. However, this North Queensland team is vastly different to previous Cowboys incarnations that have relied heavily on those two players. This team arguably has more depth than the club has ever had the luxury of having.
The Cowboys are a real danger side with impressive attacking options. The foundation is laid down by the go-forward that prop Matt Scott provides, whilst Thurston and Bowen have the skills to unleash players of the ilk of Willie Tonga and Brent Tate.
Whilst the season ending injury to Tariq Sims hurts North Queensland, it still wouldn’t surprise me to see them cause an upset over the Sea Eagles, especially with the absence of Manly’s Glenn Stewart. However, whilst the Cowboys can certainly match Manly’s firepower, they will need to tighten up their defence, which was extremely patchy against the Warriors last Saturday night.
Brisbane (3) vs New Zealand (6)
Why the Broncos should win:
Brisbane have had an excellent, if somewhat underrated, season. Considering the depth in the league this year, finishing 3rd on the ladder is quite an achievement and highlights the wonderful season the Broncos have had.
Brisbane’s attack is led by the brilliant kicking game of their halves, Peter Wallace and Darren Lockyer. Their precision with the boot may be the best in the competition, and the Warriors will need to be at their defensive best to nullify the pair’s kicking prowess.
However, the Broncos are down on men with both Josh Hoffman and Sam Thaiday missing the game due to injury and suspension respectively. The Broncos hope their absence will be somewhat offset by the return of star centre Justin Hodges, who is set to play in what feels like Lockyer’s 900th farewell game.
Why the Warriors could win:
At this time of year, every club has motivation to perform well. So the fact that Lance Hohaia is leaving the club to join Super League team St Helens at the end of the season shouldn’t provide the Warriors with a greater incentive to win than any of the other 7 clubs in the finals.
Where Hohaia does make a difference is on the field. He’s one of the most underrated players in the competition, in an entire team that has struggled to gain the respect it deserves all year. Yet Brisbane won’t be taking the Warriors lightly, in light of their hard fought 21-20 victory just last month.
Pundits claim the Warriors don’t have enough big game players, but with superstar winger Manu Vatuvei returning from injury for the finals, joining x-factors players Feleti Mateo and Kevin Locke, along with veterans like Shaun Berrigan and Simon Mannering, I disagree. The Warriors have more than enough talent and skill to cause an upset over the Broncos, especially with Brisbane missing some key players.
Wests (4) vs St George Illawarra (5)
Why the Tigers should win:
Quite simply, because they are the hottest team in the competition, currently riding an 8 game winning streak.
The Tigers, due to their attacking style of football, are always dangerous when they have confidence and momentum; the exact two qualities that a significant winning streak provides.
They also have at their disposal, one of the best players in the competition, who is playing the best football of his career – a significant achievement, considering the career Benji Marshall has had.
The Tigers are on fire, and whilst Saturday’s win against the Sharks was the least convincing of their impressive run, they are the team no one wants to face at present.
Why the Dragons could win:
Whilst not back to their absolute best just yet, the Dragons come into the finals after consecutive wins, and are somewhat akin to the sleeping bear that no one wants to wake.
It’s important to remember three things about the Big Rev V:
1. As defending premiers, the Dragons know what it takes to win the premiership.
2. Despite their recent wobbles, they are still coached by the best in the business, Wayne Bennett.
3. They have a number of outstanding players, many whom are due for a big game or two.
Until someone beats them, the Dragons are still the champions, and no team will be taking the defending premiers lightly. The Tigers would never admit it publicly, but they would have preferred to face the Warriors or Cowboys.