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Australian Wallabies Will Genia (2nd-L), speaks with teammates Drew Mitchell (L), Quade Cooper (2nd-R) and Kurtley Beale. AFP PHOTO / Greg WOOD
Wellington is slowly beginning to show signs of the flood of visitors into the city for the quarter-finals series in the city over the weekend. I walked briskly in the cutting wind and rain through the CBD, visiting galleries, cafes and the national museum Te Papa (Our House).
Groups of people in Wallaby and Springbok shirts were everywhere.
There was that sense of a growing excitement I remembered from my youth in this city with the build-up to a big rugby Test at Athletic Park.
Te Papa was doing good business with its exhibition on Oceania and an interesting display on the Haka.
I saw a black South African couple spend a lot of time at the display. She then went around a corner and started doing a haka which her husband videoed on his mobile phone.
The weather is worse than miserable.
A shroud of misty rain hangs over the city. Not even the famed Wellington winds can shift it.
Everyone is hunched up against the cold. I saw clips on television of the Wallabies training. Adam Ashley-Cooper was running around with his hands in his pockets. All the players were track-suited up with layers of clothing underneath, which made them look like Michelin Men.
The only person who looked to be enjoying himself was Robbie Deans, the lean, tough, laconic farmer from Canterbury. He was passing out balls in a training drill to icy-handed players, and was clearly enjoying the exercise far more than his Wallabies.
The weather forecast is for a clearing of the rain (but not the cold) over the weekend.
But even if some sun comes out, which in theory could happen in Spring, conditions at Westpac Stadium (a venue that has lost its name during the tournament due to the IRB’s restrictive practices) will be hostile to the sort of brilliant running game the Wallabies backline is capable of delivering.
This article is going to be a referee-free zone (applause!).
But I am going to sprinkle a large number of statistics to make some points about what the likely outcome of the finals will be. Please remember in this exercise that, in general, I am against the practice of journalists making predictions.
I think that we are having the matches to find out who is going to win.
But part of the fun of a Rugby World Cup is to predict what has invariably been unpredictable: how the teams will fare throughout the tournament.
So my fearless predictions for the winners of the quarter-finals are: Australia, England, Ireland, New Zealand.
The conditions at Wellington are definitely not going to help the Wallabies. They are, for this tournament at least, a dry weather team rather than a wet weather team.
They have played eight halves of rugby this World Cup, with four being impacted by wet weather.
Here are some (alarming for Wallaby supporters) statistics on the team’s play in wet weather. Half 1 v Italy 6-6. Half 1 v Ireland 6-6. Half 2 v Ireland 0 – 9. Half 2 v Russia 21 -17. The combined scoreline of the wet weather halves is Australia 33 – Others 38.
Wayne Smith, The Australian‘s rugby writer, has set out a number of other statistics that tend to support the case that the Wallabies will get up against the Springboks on Sunday. Only five of the starting Springboks have won more Tests than they have lost against the Wallabies.
Smith also argues that nine of the Springboks playing the Wallabies are over 30.
The presumption from this line of arguing is that the Springboks are all getting old at the same time. Experience is being trumped by tired legs and weary bodies, with the run-on Springboks captain for the match, John Smit, being an obvious example of a great player whose use-by date is well past.
The Wallabies have lost a pool round match, where the Springboks are unbeaten. But there should be an asterisk against this unbeaten notation, though, because I believe that Wales kicked a legitimate penalty that was not awarded by… (I said there would be no naming of referees in this article).
The Wallabies have been impressive in their remaining matches (generally) and have established a points differential of + 125 as compared with the points differential of the Springboks +142.
The point here is that it is most unlikely that the Springboks will play with the expansiveness they have in some of the pool matches. The Springboks are great believers in the doctrine that defence and a kicking game (from out of the hand and at goal) wins Rugby World Cup knock-out games. And they are right.
They have won two finals (1995 and 2007) without scoring a try. They have the second best goal-kicking percentage in this tournament, with 82 percent behind France’s 85 percent. If the finals turn into kickathons, like they did in 2007, then the Springboks are well placed.
The loss of Frans Steyn deprives the Springboks of an aggressive, line-denting inside centre and, most importantly, of a goal-kicker who specialises in kicking over penalties from his own half.
Against all this, the Wallabies have defeated the Springboks the last two times they have played, with one of these matches in Australia. The Wallaby goal-kicking percentage is 69 percent, the fifth best of the eight finalists.
No team has won back-to-back Rugby World Cups. This is a precedent that will eventually be broken, but not this tournament. The Springboks have looked a tired team over the last two years. In this tournament they have tended to start powerfully and then fade as the half progresses.
So I pick the Wallabies to win and am comforted by the fact that the All Black great, Wayne Shelford, thinks so too. Indeed, Shelford believes the Wallabies can go all the way and win their third Webb Ellis trophy. The Springboks in the quarter-final.
It is interesting that a lot of the pundits are picking France to defeat England in their quarter-final match. I was interviewed by the former great All Black halfback Chris Laidlaw on radio. He told me during a break that he picked France to win.
The French are unpredictable, he told me. They are inclined to play one great game each tournament. They are always up for England. They have the team to beat anyone. All this was spoken by someone with a deep knowledge of French rugby and the French mentality and character.
Laidlaw played rugby in France at Lyons (the number 9 jersey was named ‘Le Chris’ in his honour). He worked in France for some years.
He is the expert on French matters, of course. But somehow I can’t see a French victory. The team is demoralised. There are cracks as wide as fissures between camps within the playing group, and between the playing group and coaching staff.
England, for their part, are extremely hard to defeat in knock-out matches. They are aiming at an unprecedented three Rugby World Cup finals. Off the field and sometimes on the field they have had a horror tournament. Against Argentina they scored just one try and made only one line break in 80 minutes. The pundit Peter Bills wrote: “They couldn’t play, couldn’t kick goals and couldn’t stay on side with the ref.”
They defeated Scotland in the last minutes of play with another unimpressive performance. Two of their players have been put out of the tournament for a couple of matches for foul play. The team’s behaviour off the field has been a disgrace, and an affront to manager Martin Johnson.
But they have being doing enough to win all their matches, even though Jonny Wilkinson has missed more kicks in this tournament than at both his other Rugby World Cups combined. They should defeat France and go on to play either Ireland or Wales in the semi-final.
I was deliberately ambivalent about the outcome of the Wales-Ireland match. Wales have an exciting blend of young and old campaigners. Their set pieces are good. Jamie Roberts, the huge inside centre, is one of the backs of the tournament. They have terrific wingers in Shane Williams, the old genius, and George North, a strapping, very fast and confident youngster.
Wales have the second best points differential (146) after New Zealand (191). They have the third best goal-kicking percentage (80). They have made more passes in the tournament (640) than the other teams, with New Zealand (580), Ireland (503), England (478), Australia (471) and Argentina (399) next in order.
But you have the feeling that Ireland is a complete team, on the evidence of play so far in this tournament. There is pace and experience in the backs. The backrow, as a unit, is possibly the best in the tournament. The set pieces are good. The older campaigners know that this is their last shot at World Cup glory.
For what it’s worth, Dan Carter thinks a New Zealand-Ireland final is on the cards.That supposes Ireland defeating Wales and New Zealand defeating Argentina in the quarter-finals.
There is no doubt that the All Blacks have received a massive psychological blow in losing Carter. But they came up well against Canada. Media reports are that the players have moved on and are reconciled to carrying on without their great play-maker. You would think that the historic resilience of All Black sides will carry them for this match, at least.
The Pumas are not the team they were in France in 2007. The loss of their outstanding number 8 Juan Lobbe is more critical to them, because of their lack of class players, than the loss of Carter to the All Blacks.
So the All Blacks to win, setting up (according to the Spiro picks) a New Zealand – Australia semi-final in Auckland to go with an England-Ireland semi-final.
But please remember in all of this, I am the only Greek I know who doesn’t gamble.
