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Upon the calling of the name of the 96th selection at the 2011 AFL Draft, Graeme Allen will have dutifully completed his unprecedented and disproportionate part in the annual raid of the nations elite junior footballers.
With the ink still drying on their final high school exams, young tyros will fly in from Perth, the Gold Coast and everywhere in between.
We don’t yet love them, loathe them or even know them. Yet come Thursday, in a transformed auditorium somewhere in the rugby league heartland of Western Sydney, we will.
And then, in the harshest oddity of this increasingly public process, the ‘average’ player will not last to see the opening bounce of the 2015 season.
In 2009, the AFLPA released statistics that revealed the average life span of an AFL footballer to be less than four years. Whilst the emphasis clubs now place on player welfare and professionalism has the Players Association convinced this figure will markedly increase, the reality is inescapable.
Footballers don’t get drafted, play for a decade and retire to the riches and rewards their careers apparently warranted.
To draw a simple conclusion to a decidedly complicated scenario would be to suggest that if, on average, a draftee only remains in the AFL system for a period of 4-5 years then it would be negligent on the part of recruiters to select an 18 year old not physically, or mentally capable of affecting games for a period that outlasts their average ‘lifespan’?
This proposition openly discredits the trusted practices of AFL recruitment. And it is wrong in doing so.
In a competition shaped by equalisation mechanisms, top-end draft picks are priceless commodities designed to be used on elite players who can, and more than likely will play at a competitive level for a period far exceeding the average.
But once the undeniable talents are safely tucked away, what then?
At some point during Thursdays call, recruiters will pause, ponder, converse with their co-conspirators and then ask for additional time so as to attempt to perfect this imperfect art.
They will debate whether Waylon Manson, a freakishly talented West Australian, will amount to anything but an enormous waste of time and energy. Some will question Mitch Griggs’ speed and force themselves to query his place in the modern game.
Invariably, all will be forced to reconcile with the same daunting truth. How can we be sure, confident at least, that these kids will become successful at a mans game? How do we know that the hundreds of thousands of dollars spent on their post-draft years will be justified?
No amount of tests, interviews or dinner dates can predict the future. That much is certain. So why try? Why tediously deliberate over hypotheticals when a logical, and empirically sound alternative exists?
In 2009, and even more so in 2010, clubs were conspicuously willing to accept the fallacy of drafting ’10 year players’ and instead select players who were willing – and most importantly – immediately able. It began in earnest with Michael Barlow (23 years old at the time of drafting) and James Podsiadly (28) and continued with Nick Duigan (27), Paul Puopolo (22), Ian Callinan (28) all debuting in the 2011 season.
For Duigan, a psychologist from Adelaide, it took 10 years before he felt physically and mentally comfortable with himself as a footballer. In return for their diligent and open-minded approach, Carlton will receive four to five years of surety, leadership and maturity. Surely that’s a good deal for a club on the precipice.
Jonathan Patton, Stephen Coniglio and Dom Tyson – all 18 year olds – will be the first three names called by GWS on Thursday. And rightly so. But as recruiters labour to fill their lists – a task made more arduous by GWS’ monopoly of an already shallow talent pool – due consideration must be given to the perils of picking kids.
It is, after all, a mans game. Mistakes are costly.
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