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With the 2012 rugby league season nearly upon us, it’s time once again to channel my inner Nostradamus and announce five fearless predictions.
Coming off a steady if unspectacular two out of five correct predictions last season, I’m hopeful of improving the strike rate in 2012.
Betting slip, please.
One: New Zealand Warriors won’t make the finals.
This prediction isn’t as stupid as it sounds, and is based on a little bit of research and history.
In 2009, the Parramatta Eels went on a fairytale run at the backend of the season, and made it all the way to the grand final. The following year, in 2010, the Sydney Roosters had a similar Cinderella run before it came to an abrupt end at the hands of the St George Illawarra Dragons.
In each of the following years, both teams struggled mightily and failed to make the finals.
The problem with over-achieving is that the high expectations it sets for the future can be unrealistically high. And I fear that may be the case with last year’s grand finalists.
The Warriors certainly have a lot of talent, led by the exciting Shaun Johnson, but I have a feeling that they may just come crashing back to earth in 2012. With a thud.
Two: Todd Carney will have a trouble-free season.
Of all the predictions I’ve made, this would easily be the one with the longest odds.
The NRL’s perennial bad boy has as a rap sheet as long as the Nullarbor, and there are many people not just expecting him to mess up again, but hoping for it.
Carney is a wonderful football talent, and he’s not a bad kid. But some things just don’t mix. Pitbull and hearing is one example. Carney and alcohol is another. Some people just don’t seem to be able to handle booze and Carney certainly falls into that category.
From reports, he’s not completely off the booze, but he has kept out of trouble so far at his new club. And if the Sharks’ trial game against Manly is any indication, Carney is set to return to his 2010 form.
Despite being told ‘this is your last chance’ about 250 times, it may have finally sunk in for Carney, and I expect a big season from him. It’s no coincidence whatsoever that I also expect a trouble-free season from him.
Three: North Queensland Cowboys will make the grand final.
Should they be able to overcome a few injury issues, the Cowboys will give the 2012 premiership a real shake.
Led by a rejuvenated Johnathan Thurston, the go-forward of Matt Scott, and the brilliance of Matt Bowen, the North Queensland outfit returned to finals football last year. And I believe they can go even further this season.
While in the past they have relied too heavily on one or two individuals, the Cowboys have quietly put together a squad that has a lot of depth.
Tariq Sims, Aston Sims and Dallas Johnson add plenty of starch to the forward pack, supporting Scott. The recruitment of Robert Lui and the return from injury of Brent Tate will add to the team’s firepower and options.
Their defence can still be weak at times, but if they can shore up that element of their game, and stay injury free, I predict they’ll still be playing on October the first.
Four: Kurt Gidley will win the Dally M.
While the signings of super coach Wayne Bennett and ‘tag-along’ fullback Darius Boyd have prompted most of the headlines regarding the Newcastle Knights, it’s easy to forget that the club already had a solid playing squad before those two arrived.
Throw in the return of favourite son and former captain Danny Buderus, along with the signings of representative prop Kade Snowden and the enigmatic centre Timana Tahu, and big things are expected from the Novocastrians in 2012.
Gidley, after many seasons of paying the price for his own versatility, is confirmed as the five-eight and will partner Jarrod Mullen in the halves, in what might be the New South Wales pairing come Origin time.
Gidley is excited to start the season knowing exactly where he’ll be playing, and a quick look at the recent winners of the Dally M indicates that players who play in a winning side, and have their hands on the ball a lot, usually poll well. As such, you can expect Gidley to be right among the leaders come Dally M time.
Five: Penrith Panthers will win the wooden spoon.
Love him or hate him, you have to give credit to Phil Gould for one thing: he knows his rugby league. One of the shrewdest and most intelligent minds in the game, ‘Gus’ will eventually turn the Panthers into a force to be reckoned with in the NRL.
However, it won’t be this year.
Despite the credentials of Gould and those of his protégé Ivan Clearly, the Panthers simply don’t have the cattle to compete with the rest of the NRL.
While the backline contains many exciting players, including Michael Jennings, Sandor Earl, Michael Gordon and Lachlan Coote, there remain many questions marks over the consistency, health and attitude of the group.
Halves Travis Burns and Luke Walsh are solid first graders, but neither is a top-class half.
Up front, the loss of Petero Civoniceva will be badly felt. And while the inspirational Luke Lewis remains, the overall roster simply lacks the class and experience of every other in the competition.
I think it will be a long year for the men from the foot of the mountains.
You can follow Ryan on Twitter @RyanOak