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The second match of the 2012 State of Origin series will be played in Sydney tomorrow night. Down one nil in the series after losing the opening game in Melbourne, the New South Wales Blues are staring at the reality of losing seven series in a row.
Meanwhile, all of Queensland will be hoping this champion Maroons side continues its unprecedented winning run.
Who’s going to win? We analyse the four keys to the game.
1. The benches
I don’t think either coach used his bench to its full potential in game one.
Blues coach Ricky Stuart brought Tony Williams on late, and he certainly had the desired impact, breaking tackles a whopping 13 times, despite only playing 23 minutes. Conversely, Trent Merrin received 38 minutes, which was actually a surprise when I looked it up, such was his lack of impact on the game.
Meanwhile, Ben Creagh played just 24 minutes, which seems counter-intuitive when you consider the Dragons’ strengths are his athleticism and fitness.
Then rounding out the Blues bench use was Jamie Buhrer’s inglorious seven minutes of play.
Seeming as the Blues picked a side to counteract Queensland’s size, it was a strange decision by Stuart to underuse his bench. Michael Jennings sin bin may have caused some disruption to the rotation strategy, but fresh players would have better capitalised on Queensland’s one weakness: fatigue late in the game.
And make no mistake; the Maroons were really struggling in the last 15 minutes of the match.
Mal Meninga used his bench better than Stuart, with David Shillington playing 37 minutes and Ben Hannant 31 minutes. However, David Taylor and Matt Gillett were both under-utilised, registering 24 and 17 minutes respectively.
Considering how out on their feet the Maroons were in the last quarter of game I, I expect Meninga to use his bench more astutely in game II, to help prevent tiredness late in the match.
Meanwhile, Stuart needs to have an improved game plan on how to best utilise the minutes available to him.
Who wins the game may well be dictated by which coach uses his bench the best.
2. The referees
In basketball there is a term named a ‘make-up call’, which basically occurs when a referee all but admits they made a mistake, and follows a bad call with an equally bad call. It’s basically an evening out of the poor decisions.
There is a slight danger that the entire game of Origin II becomes a ‘make-up call’, with the referees giving the Blues more 50/50 calls than they are warranted.
It’s not a conspiracy theory, it’s merely human nature. Much was made of the Blues not receiving much luck in game I, yet luck has a way of evening out over the course of a series. The referees won’t consciously favour the Blues, as that would be outright cheating. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if, by sheer coincidence, the Blues get an unfair share of decisions going their way in Sydney.
The Maroons cannot become preoccupied with this, and I’m sure they’re not. But my number one concern heading into Origin II is that Queensland get screwed by the referees, thereby ruining rugby league’s biggest spectacle once again.
3. Execution
The Blues may have had more possession and a higher completion rate in game I, but the Maroons executed much better when presented with scoring opportunities.
On far too many occasions, the Blues squandered their attacking chances. Whether it was kicking down Brent Tate’s throat for easy diffusions, attempting a shot at goal from forty metres out, or forcing the pass late, the Blues struggled to keep their composure in attack.
Meanwhile, in what has become a hallmark of their success, the Maroons capitalised when presented the opportunity to score. Led by the precision, skill and patience of Johnathan Thurtson, Queensland make every attacking raid count.
The real concern for the Blues will be that the Maroons were well below their best in Melbourne. They actually played pretty poorly in patches, and looked very sluggish. There is next to no chance Queensland will play that badly again.
Billy Slater, in particular, would be unlikely to repeat his performance in game I, which should be a major concern for the Blues, since they only looked like scoring because of Slater’s mistakes.
The Blues will require more than luck as a strategy to succeed in game two. They’ll need to execute with Maroon-like efficiency.
4. NSW personnel changes
While it may seem like a fairly small change on the surface, the selection of an additional prop will have a drastic effect on the Blues, and their game plan.
The addition of Tim Grant enables Paul Gallen to move back to lock. However, this will alter very little to Gallen’s game, as regardless of what number he wears on his jersey, he plays exactly the same way, and in the same area on the field – the middle.
Where the changes will be felt is with the NSW backrowers, many who were asked to play as makeshift props in game I, which hindered their effectiveness.
However, with Grant, Tamou, Gallen and Merrin taking responsibility for the middle of the ground, the Blues backrowers will be able to utilise their athleticism and speed on the fringes. Look for Bird, Stewart, Watmough, Lewis and Creagh to play and run wider.
This will ask more tackling of Cronk, Inglis, Hodges, and especially Thurston, who will be missing his bodyguard, Sam Thaiday. While all of those players are certainly up to the task defensively, the added work may affect their attacking potency.
Prediction
Despite an improved Queensland performance, I think the home ground advantage, and better use of their bench, will see the Blues win an absolute Origin classic, thus squaring up the series.
NSW Blues: 21
Queensland Maroons: 18