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Well, there’s only one week left to go, but we still have two Australian teams left in the race for the Super Rugby finals.
Through a combination of other results, and ‘just getting it done’, both the Brumbies and Reds are doing exactly what they need to in order to qualify in their highest possible positions.
Reds need ‘perfect game’ against Tahs
For the Brumbies, that now requires just a solitary point from next Saturday afternoon’s final round clash with the hot-again Blues in Canberra. One point will be enough to get them clear of the Reds, and will have them finish atop the Australian conference.
For the Reds, the equation remains – as it always has been – simply to win as well as they can. Yes, there’s numerous different permutations on results that could have them finish anywhere from out of the top six completely to topping the Australian conference, should the Brumbies take nothing away from their last home game.
However, the fact remains that the Reds have to beat the Waratahs with a bonus point in Brisbane on Saturday night to put themselves into the position where other results can deal them the ultimate hand. Once the Reds have beaten the Waratahs, they can just sit back and let the numbered balls drop where they will.
The Reds will at least go into the game in some decent nick and with all their big guns coming good as a single unit, essentially for the first time this season. When you see how well Quade Cooper and Will Genia work together again, you really get an indication of just how tough a job the makeshift Reds’ backline had at the start of last season.
The only likely change from the team that made short work of the Highlanders is Digby Ioane coming back onto the wing to replace youngster Chris F’Sautia. I also wonder if Ewen McKenzie might be tempted to start Ben Lucas at fullback again, to play with that attacking 9-10-15 spine as the Hurricanes do with Perenara-Barrett-Taylor.
Attacking ‘shock and awe’ might be their best weapon against the shell-shocked ‘Tahs.
A quick comment on F’Sautia. We all fall into the trap in Australia of hyping the bloody hell out of any emerging player to play even just a smidgeon better than expected in their first few games, but it was truly heartbreaking to see F’Sautia grabbing at his hamstring as he burst into space with a Cooper-fired ball in his hands.
F’Sautia had looked great again in just his third Super Rugby game, and just as he accelerated into the yawning gap, the hammy’s let go on him. Rugby is a horribly cruel game sometimes, and I’m sure we all wish the youngster well in his recovery.
The Reds in general looked very good in attack, and there’s no reason why that should be reined in against NSW. Genia and Cooper have that width in their game again, and they’re going at the line with plenty of running options both inside and outside.
Most importantly, Cooper looks fresh and has some real pace about him, too. He’s running, jinking, and stepping with no evident tentativeness that you’d expect from someone returning from a knee reconstruction. If the Reds are to go anywhere near defending their title, they need Cooper fit and firing.
The Reds will go a long way to beating the Waratahs if they just replicate the elements of James Slipper’s try against the Highlanders. Slipper will gradually extend the distance he covered for the try over time, and Genia will get the plaudits for seeing the opportunity down the short side, but the try came about because of the bodies in motion across the field in the lead-up to Genia’s short side snipe.
That, and some superb skills from an unlikely source. Lock Adam Wallace-Harrison’s deft catch-draw-pass was from the very top shelf, enabling him to see what was on offer, draw the two defenders in, and find the outside man in space to score the try. There’s some outside centres around the country who should be made to watch Wallace-Harrison’s crucial touch on loop.
The Reds showed perfect desperation at the right moments, too, no better highlighted than Cooper’s unsightly but effective rush tackle on Chris Noakes in the 79th minute, and Jake Schatz’s match-winning turnover after the siren when a late Highlanders try looked inevitable. That turnover proved that if the Reds get their timing right, they have the game to win whatever the situation.
And ‘desperation’ is just about the perfect summary of the Brumbies’ backs-against-the-wall win in Sydney on Saturday night. It was ugly at times, it was brilliant for glimpses, but ultimately, it was a win built on defence and good, old-fashioned desperation.
Any win with less than 40% of both possession and territory is going to be impressive, but when it’s on a ground you’ve never won at, and in a city you’ve not won in for ten years, that’s something else again. You just know that if the Brumbies have some success in the finals, this hard-fought win over their closest rivals will be referenced.
Their self-belief must be bursting through their veins currently. After Zack Holmes missed a penalty for what would’ve been a 12-8 lead in the second half, and Berrick Barnes scored up the other end just minutes later, for the ‘Tahs to lead 15-9, you sensed that 10-point turnaround might’ve been the end of the Brumbies.
But as they did against the Force the week before, Holmes was able to strike straight back, once again finding a flying Henry Speight in space on the right flank. And sure, there probably was a question on the pass, but considering Keith Brown was at one point tackled by the Waratahs and awarded them the scrum feed, it was hardly the worst refereeing moment of the game.
If the Brumbies do want to progress in the finals, they must do some urgent remedial action on their scrum. Laurie Fisher had it working well earlier in the season, to the point where it was the one consistent part of their game, but it’s slipped in the last few rounds.
Ben Alexander might’ve thought he was in for an easier night on Saturday after Wallaby team-mate Sekope Kepu was ruled out, but Paddy Ryan towelled him up anyway. That’s patently not god enough for an international prop. I still question the wisdom on the Brumbies hooking Dan Palmer against the ‘Tahs too, while Alexander had been doing his best impersonations of Ben Franks all night.
Ultimately, the Brumbies’ superior fitness won out, with Jake White outlining post-match that the squad was re-conditioned in the June break for an August 4 season end. That’s not to say that they expect to be there on the last night of the season, but rather that they’ll be in peak fitness for a tilt if they are. The Brumbies have apparently not conceded a try in the last 20 minutes of their past nine games, too, which highlights their ability to make the right defensive decision when they’re at their most fatigued in a game. They’ll need that.
As it stands, both the Reds and Brumbies can secure a finals berth this coming weekend. If they manage to achieve that, it would cap a remarkable season considering where they were both situated squad-wise at the start of the Super Rugby campaign.
Where there’s life, there’s hope.