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When the IRB player of the year award is announced next week, consider it an upset if All Blacks captain Richie McCaw does not collect the prize.
If he does not, familiar hands might be to blame.
Kieran Read and Conrad Smith also have strong claims, while the wizardy of Israel Dagg might have also caught the eye.
However, the smart money would be on McCaw scooping up the accolade for a fourth time. It might be his last act before heading off on a six-month break designed to keep the fire burning until the 2015 World Cup.
The spell will take him out of three Tests against the French in New Zealand next year and the impact will be significant.
In current form, McCaw is as close to irreplaceable as you can get.
It is not just his play, although that in itself is a huge loss: he brings a hardness to the tackle and an aggression to his ball-carrying that others cannot match.
There are other elements New Zealand will find hard to replace.
Take Tony Woodcock’s 39th-minute try against the Welsh, for example.
Wales were already on the ropes, 16-0 down, but McCaw chose to apply the knockout blow by turning down a shot at goal and opting for the lineout. And his work did not finish there.
Reprising the move that saw Woodcock plunge over for the All Blacks’ try in the World Cup final, McCaw was involved in the lift for the dummy target, Liam Messam. But as soon as that was completed – and not even looking at where the ball was going – McCaw then shifted into blocking mode, helping to open up the gap in the middle of the lineout by preventing Wales prop Paul James access to Woodcock.
There is no more single-minded or crafty player in the game. Young Chiefs openside Sam Cane – McCaw’s likely replacement in the French series – is a fine player, but he does not have McCaw’s nous, accumulated through losses as well as wins.
Yet even the sharpness of the All Blacks tailed off in the second half. In post-match remarks McCaw and Smith alluded to weariness in the camp – which brings us to comments made by Robbie Deans after the Italy Test.
Deans said it was evident the Wallabies’ “batteries need recharging”, which is probably as relevant to mental sharpness as well as physical.
The remarks can provoke one reaction: that professional sportsmen representing their country should never be tired. However, it prompted me to stand back and take a look at the Wallabies schedule since the World Cup, and there was enough discrepancy between it and other nations to make reference to it here.
The upcoming Wales Test will be the Wallabies’ 17th game since the World Cup, 16 Tests and one game against the Barbarians. It’s a 50 per cent greater workload at Test level than some of their peers. France have had 10 and Ireland have had 11, and neither will play this weekend. The All Blacks are coming up to Test number 14 since the World Cup final.
Does it entirely account for some of the Wallabies’ below-par performances this year? No, but you would have to be fairly churlish not to acknowledge the possibility of it having an impact. After this weekend, Australia will have played Wales five times alone since the 2011 tournament. It’s too much.
In fact, like the All Blacks’ game against England this weekend, the Wallabies encounter will fall outside the IRB’s international window, meaning that clubs are not obliged to release their players for Test duty. Consequently, Wales will not have the services of James Hook, who plays in France and would have had a decent chance of replacing the out-of-form Rhys Priestland.
The reason the respective unions agree to these fixtures will not surprise: the All Blacks have reportedly negotiated a fee of about $NZ4 million ($3.1 million) for the Twickenham fixture.
But whether the coaches and players would be as keen to put pen to the deal is another matter. There is an argument that the Wallabies should already be home.
By the time they do it will already be December and 2013’s onerous demands are just around the corner.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.