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Football in Australia has had a good season, following and a good previous season. But that isn’t to say every season has been smooth for the fledgling A-League.
A-League seasons one to three showed growth, four to six had declines, with the recovery year being seven. A-League season eight has continued the growth.
We will finish the year with a crowd average of around 12,500 and 80,000 viewers per match.
Season nine, 2013/14, shall have one Friday night A-League match broadcast live and the Socceroos’ World Cup qualifying matches broadcast on a one hour delay. As such, it is a season which should see us qualify for the 2014 World Cup.
Season 10, 2014/15, begins after the World Cup and has the Asian Cup in 2015.
Season 11, 2015/16, has World and Asian Cup qualifying matches and the women’s World Cup.
So what are reasonable annual growth rates for growth of the A-League over the next four years and where will it leave football?
Growth in crowds can be expected. Assuming a base starting point of 12, 500, a 5% annual growth will have average crowds at 15,194 in four years. 10% growth will have average crowds at 18,301.
A 15% annual growth will have average crowds at 21,862 and a 20% annual growth will have average crowds at 25,920 in four years.
For Pay TV audiences, assuming a starting point of 80,000, a 5% annual growth will have an average TV audience at 97, 240 in four years. 10% annual growth will have average TV audiences at 117, 128.
A 15% growth will have TV audience at 139,920 and a 20% annual growth will have average TV audiences at 165,886 in four years.
Let’s be reasonable and assume a 10% crowd growth and 20% TV increase. This would provide football with a very healthy business for the next media deal, in whatever form they take.
My guess is the A-League will stay a ten team competition and any new teams when they come will be put in football heartlands like Wollongong.
Expansion from a football perspective is challenging. The key is the Friday night FTA and the one delayed Socceroos’ World Cup qualifiers.
There will be a lot of competition. I see the AFL in their heartland states being in what marketing people call the mature stage of the market, in that it’s near impossible to grow the market and more than likely there will be a fall in heartland market share.
Similarly, rugby league growth in their heartland states seems unlikely. But both codes are expanding into markets with low market shares, where picking up a small slice of the market is possible.
Both codes hope the market pick up in the new states more than offsets the losses in heartland states.
Rugby union has expanded where each country has five teams with home teams playing each other twice. Again, rugby is expanding in new areas and hoping to pick up a small slice of the market.
Football is still it’s a growth phase across all states and coming off a low starting base. Football has very few heartland areas – western Sydney and Newcastle are the only ones I am aware of. Some areas like Wollongong are more football friendly but not heartland areas.
Football will have to battle with other codes also trying to break into new markets, meaning it will not be easy.
My bold prediction for the 10% crowd 20% rating increase over four years will be a hard slog. But if we can achieve that, many doors will open to advance football.
What do Roarers think the growth rate will be?
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