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It’s time for your favourite market update, where we throw about the Super Rugby identities that are on the rise or decline in 2013.
Here is who you should be buying or selling.
The stock market is a funny place. It takes no prisoners and you need to have your wits about you to succeed. If you’re feeling a little rocky this year, don’t worry.
Your faithful adviser is here to help you see through the fog.
Buy: Jesse Mogg
It’s hard to believe but I think Jesse Mogg’s stock has only risen since he has been out of action for the Brumbies. Calls for his inclusion in the Wallabies have only grown louder in his absence due to Kurtley Beale’s indiscretions and a lack of other contenders playing the house down.
The Brumbies have faltered a little in the last fortnight, especially when it comes to scoring points. Fans of Mogg and the franchise will hope he returns quickly to add his spark and verve to the side.
He’s been on the rise for some time now, but his value is only becoming more apparent.
I’d be buying major stock in MOG no matter the price right now.
Negotiate an opt-out after 10-15% profit to be safe. The last decade in Australian Rugby has been full of inflated value and bubbles bursting. Make your money and split. Don’t get greedy.
Chiefs coaching staff
Headed by Dave Rennie with Lieutenants Wayne Smith, Tom Coventry and Andrew Strawbridge, the Chiefs coaching staff have done a stellar job since they took office.
These guys are obviously rated pretty highly already, but the longer they keep steering a team that was always high on promise and low on delivery onto bigger and better things the more their stock will rise.
After taking over for the 2012 season, coming off a poor 2011 that featured nine losses, this coaching staff have led the Chiefs to 19 wins including a championship and only five losses.
All the while they’ve delicately balanced promoting new players, polishing the talent of the Sam Canes, Sonny Bill Williams and Gareth Anscombes and keeping a cutting edge of hunger and determination in the squad.
I think it’s safe to say all the men involved aren’t going to be Super Rugby head coaches or assistants forever.
Particularly for those of you closer to retirement wanting to get a kick before you cash it all in to get that house by the water; these guys aren’t going to let you down soon. They’re full of sound decisions, good principles and get the basics done well.
Sell: Scott Higginbotham
Higginbotham is the forgotten man of Australian rugby at the moment. For the last 24 months many had predicted he was one of the keys to a dominant Australian rugby future. Now, hidden in an under-performing side and among a forward pack that doesn’t do enough of the hard yards, Higginbotham has almost been anonymous this year.
Toiling away without any go-forward ball nullifies the best part of his game – running through broken play, creating space, being generally athletic and trying different skills on the fly.
You haven’t heard many people clamouring for Higginbotham’s inclusion in a Wallabies side this year and there’s a host of replacements vying for caps.
I can only remember two standout moments for Higginbotham this year, scoring a try to reduce the deficit to a mere 57 against the Sharks and a run and great pass that almost set up a try off a turn over against the Reds.
Higginbotham is a 3D television sitting in your lounge room: It sounded like a good idea at the time but it hasn’t been used in so long you barely remember it exists.
Super Rugby is a long season and Higginbotham’s stock has already started to dip, get out before it rips a black hole in your portfolio.
Ma’a Nonu
It may shock some, but I think Nonu’s best days are just behind him and the next generation of inside centre is gunning for his position.
Nonu has been accomplished enough for the Highlanders and still displays an all-round game but he doesn’t appear to be playing with the same kind of burst and energy for 80 minutes anymore.
Now we are two years out from a world cup and it would be the perfect time to try out a few young bloods in Nonu’s position at Test level.
The player I’d be keeping an eye on is Francis Saili. This guy seems to have the game to play inside centre for New Zealand. He’s big and strong, tackles well, runs the ball very strongly and has a great pass too. One such rainbow that put a player in to score against the Bulls elicited an audible reaction when this viewer saw it.
Over at the Chiefs there are two fantastic inside centre options looming. Andrew Horrell is a very strong runner, while Bundee Aki literally eats opposition ball carriers for fun. His tackle counts are very high and helps protect the five-eighth which is very helpful at Test level.
Returns on Nonu might have topped out. Time to hedge your bets.
Watch list: Elton Jantjes
In Jantjies we have one of the most interesting people in Super Rugby this year.
After winning the regular season in 2012 the Stormers fell prey to a rampaging team in the finals.
The decision makers understood that strong defence can win you the percentages over a full season but in a few tight games you need some extra creativity and explosiveness to break open your opposition.
For that reason they’ve given the reigns of a team in its championship window to this sometimes volatile but undoubtedly skilled young fly-half.
Jantjies could be the key to unlocking the beast, or he might wear down under the spotlight and immense pressure of expected success and tank the season for the Stormers.
Already they’ve taken the goal kicking weight off his slim shoulders.
He needs to keep improving in the big games to justify his coach’s gamble. His ability to jink through holes is very good. Also, the late passing is quite something when on time – see the inside ball that put Gio Aplon one-on-one with Robbie Coleman against the Brumbies.
Watch this stock closely. The Jantjies Indicator (TJI) will be a good barometer of how the Stormers sector of the market is travelling this year.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.