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After watching the Easter Monday clash between Hawthorn and Geelong the play of Lance Franklin struck me as odd.
I couldn’t come out of the game thinking Franklin had done anything to help Hawthorn actually win the game.
Franklin didn’t help run back on defence, he didn’t capitalise on opportunities, he looked disinterested and to be honest got routinely beat in most contests.
So after the game I got stuck into some Lance Franklin research and I came out with some interesting results.
My hypothesis heading into the research was ‘Hawthorn is more effective when Lance Franklin is not playing’.
I looked back at the last two years and compared games where Franklin was playing and those where he was not. Lance Franklin has only missed eight games in the past two seasons, which created a small sample size when collating my research however I still found the results effective.
I removed the statistics when Franklin was playing against the new AFL franchises GC Suns and the GWS Giants or as I like to call them ‘aberration games’. This is to create an even platform in which to judge the results.
Here is what I found in my results:
• In 2011 with Franklin (17 games), Hawthorn averaged 14 goals and 13.7 behinds per game (27.7 scoring shots per game);
• In 2011 without Franklin (2 games), Hawthorn averaged 20 goals, 8.5 behinds (28.5 scoring shots per game);
• In 2012 with Franklin (13 games), Hawthorn averaged 15.8 goals and 14.1 behinds per game (30.3 scoring shots per game);
• In 2012 without Franklin (6 games), Hawthorn averaged 20.8 goals and 14.7 behinds (35.5 scoring shots per game).
As you can clearly see Hawthorn is a five goal a game better side without Lance Franklin. This is quite a drastic change in the statistics to back up my hypothesis.
When looking at Lance Franklin’s career statistics in yearly splits, it is almost impossible to argue Lance Franklin has improved at all.
Franklin’s free kick ratio is quite disgusting to look at, while his accuracy a goal is also rather appealing. Last season Lance Franklin regressed in handballs, marks, goals and behinds which is quite a red flag.
Without Franklin, it can be certainly argued that Hawthorn are a more unpredictable and more efficient side without the selfishness and arrogance on Franklin.
Since the 2008 winning grand final whenever Franklin has kicked two goals or fewer, Hawthorn has a record of 13-6.
The unpredictable nature of which Lance Franklin will show up on the day is kryptonite in the Hawks unique style of possession and effective disposal football.
With the rumoured price tag of Franklin said to be over one million per season year is the price really worth it for Hawthorn? As the statistics show Lance Franklin is certainly not a one million dollar player for the Hawks.
With players such as Jarryd Roughhead, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli and Ryan Schonmakers all showing they have a high capability in being a key forward, Franklin certainly will not be missed in the Hawthorn side if he so chooses to leave the Brown and Gold.
Sorry Jeff Kennett, Clarko isn’t the problem, Buddy is.
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