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On Saturday, The Australian’s rugby writer Bret Harris suggested Australia might have three teams competing in the Super Rugby finals.
The Brumbies and the Reds are virtually certainties. The third team with a possibility was the Waratahs. But, as Harris noted, they had to defeat the Bulls to give themselves a real chance.
However, as I try to explain at the end of this article, because other sides in their points-area are struggling to win matches, the Waratahs are not entirely out of consideration for the final six.
As it happens, the Waratahs played splendidly for 63 minutes at Loftus Versfeld, forcing a lead of 19-12. But then fatigue set in and the Bulls powered their way to a victory that was more impressive on the scoreboard than in actuality.
The Waratahs were let down in the end by their lineout. They continually lost ball on their own throw and found it hard to defend (as virtually every other team in the tournament does as well) against the lineout expertise and rumbles of the Bulls.
It was a different matter in the scrums. In this area the Waratahs were totally dominant. I thought Benn Robinson gave a man-of-the-match performance with his scrumming and his play around the field in making tackles and driving the ball up hard.
Michael Hooper was superb, again. Sooner or later an innovative coach is going to experiment with starting him in the centres and moving him back as flanker later on in the game (or doing it the other way around, which on reflection might be a better course of action).
If this is done, moving Hooper from a starting flanker to a finishing centre, say, the Waratahs – or whatever team has the nous to try this – will be playing two number 7s at the crucial later stages in a match.
Hooper has terrific hands, great speed, is tough in the tackle and passes expertly. He could be one of the great centres, in my view. Right now, though, he is a splendid number 7, one of the best in world rugby.
Robbie Deans has a really difficult task of working out just how to use George Smith, Liam Gill (who has been used by the Wallabies as a number 6 although he is really not big enough) and Hooper.
Coaches always say they enjoy having competition for places in their sides. But sometimes too much talent is a problem – not as bad as too little talent, but a problem nevertheless – in trying to get the balance right in a pack between tough old-timers and young sparks.
Israel Folau scored a superb try just bursting through an outside gap with his Rolls Royce running style. The long balls kicked down to him he fielded expertly. He had trouble coming forward to make catches, but then who doesn’t?
My main criticism of a player who should be in the Wallaby squad (but not necessarily in the team) to play the British and Irish Lions is he doesn’t do much running when the ball is kicked down to him.
He invariably relies on passing it to another runner and never tries to get a return pass or to take the ball up himself. His work rate in this area needs to improve.
Against this, there is no doubt he is an X-factor player and these players can turn games.
There have been suggestions from some Roarers that Bernard Foley should be in the Wallaby squad. On his performance on Saturday night, not yet.
Foley made too many kicking and tactical mistakes under pressure. Loftus Versfeld is a place that tests visiting players to the ultimate degree. And Foley, right now, is not up to this type of test.
At the other end of the Super Rugby world, down at Christchurch on Sunday, James O’Connor gave a master class on how to play the number 10 position. He made one mistake with a kick out on the full. But the rest of his game was superb.
He took the ball to the line hard and engaged the Crusaders defensive line, stopping it from drifting. He scored a brilliant solo try. He kicked his penalties and one especially superb conversion.
If Wallaby supporters needed any further evidence that Robbie Deans is correct in looking to O’Connor, initially, as the Wallaby fly half, this match, against one of the smartest sides in the tournament, demonstrated this is the right option to take.
The Bulls and the Crusaders are the only sides that have won all their home matches this season. And both of them showed why this is so.
In the championship minutes of their matches, the last quarter, both these sides were behind (and the Crusaders were playing into a really strong wind to boot) and both sides came home to win by dominating play for the rest of the match.
On Friday, the Reds defeated a very good Blues side in a close run match at Suncorp Stadium. A brilliant piece of scrambling, inventive play by Quade Cooper really won it for the Reds. And in his duties as a flyhalf, Cooper had a strong game as well.
But there is not the same surety to his play in taking the right options (rather than the flashy options) as there is in O’Connor’s game.
Before I get accused of having an anti-Cooper phobia by Red-eyed supporters, I make the point I have often made on The Roar: Cooper’s real position in Tests is on the wing, as a David Campese/Shane Williams type of play maker and finisher.
He has the pace. He has the tricks. And relieved of having to play a controlled game as the flyhalf, he would have the licence, as Campese and Williams had, to kill opposition defences.
The Reds made all the play against the Brumbies two weeks ago and came out of the match with a scrambling draw. Against the young Blues side, who made all the play, the Reds came out of the match with a win.
The Reds’ result against the Blues (and the Bulls and Crusaders), when they conjured up a victory when the statistics and the flow of the match were against them at crucial times in the match, is the sign of a good side.
Once again the Reds defence won the day for them. The team has conceded 13 tries this season: with the Brumbies on 17, the Chiefs on 21, the Bulls on 19, the Cheetahs on 19 and the Blues 12 and the Crusaders 15.
The Brumbies, though, have scored 28 tries: with the Reds on 20 (despite Cooper’s brilliance and Ewen McKenzie’s bragging about the Reds’ expansive game), the Chiefs 29, Bulls 19, Blues 24, Cheetahs 23, Crusaders 23 in the top seven teams.
You had to admire the way the Brumbies just monstered the Force in the first half of their match at Canberra. Some of the back moves which led to tries were pure Stephen Larkham magic, not surprisingly as the great playmaker is the Brumbies’ backs coach.
My fearless prediction is the Brumbies, the Reds, the Bulls and the Chiefs are certain finals side, with the Brumbies topping the table.
The Bulls have got their long Australasia tour out of the way and they will win most of their matches at home. They are actually playing a slightly more expansive, running game than in the past, with Morne Steyn actually going to the line and scoring a try.
They look to be the best bet for winning the South African conference.
The Chiefs have also done their long overseas Australia/South Africa tour and, as they are winning 80 per cent of their matches at home, they look like being the most likely New Zealand conference winners.
Who will be the other two sides? The Blues, Cheetahs, Crusaders, Sharks, Hurricanes and Stormers are in contention for the two positions in the six-team finals series.
And just possibly, although I doubt it very much, the Waratahs.
This has been a wonderful Super Rugby tournament. No side is unbeaten. 11 sides are in contention for the finals. The leading side, the Brumbies, have drawn two matches and lost one out of 10 played.
So the finals will be wide open too.
So on the day, any side this year – and this includes the winless Highlanders – can defeat any other side.
This situation is creating a tremendously interesting tournament, and making me look like a fool in The Roar’s tipping competition!