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Here’s the situation in the closing minutes of a tough-as-a-Test, pulsating Waratahs vs Stormers match at Allianz Stadium:
The Wararahs are behind 15-11. They win a penalty right in front of the posts. Do they take the points? They still have to score five points to take the lead.
But will it be easier to take three then kick a second penalty in the remaining minutes, rather than score a try against the one of the best defensive teams in the competition?
Before the match against the Waratahs, the Stormers had conceded 11 tries. The top team in the tournament, the Brumbies, has conceded 20. The second top team (with the Chiefs, 28 tries conceded), the Reds, have conceded 16.
The Stormers are a team that plays rugby as a tank would. The are all about rumbling, abrasive attack and all-guns-blazing defence.
In their last 58 matches they have conceded one, yes that is right, only one four-try bonus point loss.
They lost their first match of the 2013 Super Rugby tournament by eight points, but since then they have gained at least one point in every match played.
Dave Dennis seizes the moment and opts to go for a try. I am a great believer in taking the points, but this was the correct decision. Had they failed to score a try it still would have been correct.
The Waratahs already had a bonus point for being within seven points of the Stormers. By going for the try the Waratahs gave themselves a chance of a terrific victory.
As attack after attack was unleashed on the Stormers try line, the crowd around me and throughout the ground (17,042 which will possibly be twice as big next week) was just roaring and roaring the way crowds do when they are intensely involved in the way the play is going.
As one Waratah plunged for line a chap nearby shouted out: “He’s in there!”
It was not to be. There were more thunderous attacks, pick and drives, lunges from the forwards, darting attacks from the backs. The defence hardly bent. Attack after attack was repulsed. But still the attacks hammered on.
Then the crowd down the far end of the ground, in the Randwick corner, exploded into an almighty cheering roar. They could see what was difficult to see with precision from the far stands.
Israel Folau was racing onto the ball. A slight swerve, a shake of the hips and he was through a hole in the defence. Try!
A brilliant conversion by Berrick Barnes ensured that the Waratahs had a three-point lead, which in turn meant that the Stormers had to score a try to win the match. A draw beckoned if the Stormers kicked a penalty.
There were still a couple of minutes left on the clock. The Waratahs had to catch the kick-off and secure the ball. Would they ‘kick it to the shit-house’ or would they smack it up, treasuring the possession as they had tried to do all game?
The issue became academic as the Stormers cracked. The kick-off did not go 10 metres.
Now the Waratahs were faced with another test. They couldn’t afford to give away a penalty, as there was still time for a kick into touch and a Stormers driving maul.
Let’s stop the tape at this point to consider the matter of the scrums. The Waratahs had started with an all-Wallaby scrum. Occasionally their scrum was under a great deal of stress from the big, hard-shoving Stormers eight.
One particular scrum, near the halfway mark, was lost by the Waratahs as they were pushed off the ball. But the Waratahs re-grouped and shoved the Stormers pack off the ball to redress the error made seconds ago.
And let’s go back to the 60-minute mark to note two crucial changes to the Waratahs line-up. Off came Bernard Foley, who had played well but just couldn’t set up runners to get through the line, or get through himself.
In the forwards, off came Sitaleki Timani and on came the 21-year-old monster Will Skelton. Timani is one of the biggest forwards in Australian rugby. Skelton made him look like a back. This youngster is seriously massive.
Now start the tape for the last scrum. The Waratahs pack, with the massive Skelton providing extraordinary heft to the shove, held the Stormers and in the scrambling play following the splintering of the Stormers scrum, the visitors conceded a penalty.
There was still enough time for a lineout and with it the chance for the Stormers to win or draw the match if they won the ball and launched a successful assault on the Waratahs defence.
But what’s this? Barnes steps up to kick for goal.
This tactic has the benefit of making the kick the last play in the match. But if it missed and did not go dead, the Stormers were offered a last (admittedly remote chance) chance of snatching a dramatic victory.
No worries, though. Barnes banged the goal over from halfway as easily as if it were the one right in front that the Waratahs had rejected only minutes (it seemed like hours) earlier.
This was such a terrific victory for the Waratahs because they kept to their game plan which was to keep the ball in hand. They scored a try when they had to against a defence that does not concede tries very easily.
Next Saturday, the Waratahs play the Brumbies in Sydney. This will be a decisive game for both teams.
The Brumbies (having had their bye this week) were defeated the round before at Canberra by a very focussed Crusaders side.
What the defeat revealed is that the territory-obsessed Brumbies game needs to be expanded if the side wants to win the Australian Conference, let along the tournament.
This season the Bulls have won all their home matches. The Chiefs and the Blues have won 83 percent of their home matches. The Waratahs have won 80 percent.
The Reds, normally unbeatable at Suncorp Stadium, have won 71 percent of their home matches. They play the Cheetahs at Bloemfontein in the first match of their South African tour.
The Brumbies have won 63 percent of their home matches.
The point here is that a win for the Waratahs and losses for the Brumbies and Reds puts the Waratahs within striking distance of the two leading Australian Conference sides.
Some more general thoughts that came out of this match and the other matches involving the Australian teams:
Israel Folau has played his way into the Wallaby starting line-up as a winger.
He still seems to be slightly unsure of his positional play as a fullback and has some problems in getting into the line for attacks.
But his running and jumping are phenomenal. He has played State of Origin, and succeeded brilliantly, as a winger. This is the more natural position for him right now in rugby, although he did make one quite good clearing kick.
Berrick Barnes was very impressive in his 20-minute cameo. He did not do his usual stupid little dink and chip kicks. He hoisted one up-an-under, but for the rest of the time he passed and organised very well at number 10.
In this form, Barnes provides cover for Kurtley Beale and for whoever is selected at number 10.
This number 10 saga took a dramatic turn at the weekend. Quade Cooper played splendidly in the brilliant first half of rugby by the Reds against the Sharks. In the second half both the Reds and Cooper were quite ordinary.
Then at Auckland, against the Blues, James O’Connor had a very ordinary match.
Wynne Gray, the New Zealand Herald‘s rugby writer, described his play this way: “As an audition for the Wallabies first five-eighths role in the Lions series, James O’Connor needed to deliver a great deal more.”
What’s more he suffered a chest injury which was aggravated when he was literally bowled over like a tenpin by Rene Ranger.
The Stormers captain suggests that Quade Cooper is the best partner for Will Genia, and that after him either Matt Toomua and/or Christian Leallifano.
The Wallabies 22-man squad will be announced next Sunday. Robbie Deans has talked about ‘clarity’ coming to the minds of the selectors as the weeks have gone by in the Super Rugby tournament. This weekend’s rugby has somewhat muddied the waters I would think.
I am sure (but this is totally my thinking and is not based on any discussions with the Wallaby selectors) that there was/is an intention to leave Cooper out of the 22-man squad and include him in the additional six players for the first Test after the British and Irish Lions play the Reds early in their tour.
But if O’Connor is injured, this might change. There is also the possibility of Barnes, Toumua and Lealiifano. The last two named are the only players who haven’t played for the Wallabies, but both are experienced at Super Rugby level, and have proven they are tough.
Lealiifano is also a candidate for the inside centre position. His case here would be helped if Kurtley Beale is not available. In this case Adam Ashley-Cooper or Barnes would come into contention.
It is a pity that there are no Tests for the Wallabies before the Lions series. If there were the best young back of the last couple of years, Kyle Godwin, the Force’s tough, smart inside centre would be given a run. Godwin will probably have to wait for the November tour.
Another possibility then is the Reds centre Chris Feauai-Sautia, the best schoolboy rugby player Tim Horan reckons he’s seen.
Godwin and Feauai-Sautia in Rugby World Cup 2015 could be as sensational in their different ways as the legendary Horan-Little combination.
That’s for the future, and one more name for now must be Scott Higginbotham.
There has been a lot of talk about Ben Mowen and Dave Dennis. These two players have played well. But Higginbotham has been an x-factor player for the Rebels, and one would think that either as a number six or number 8 he would be a certainty for the Wallabies run-on side.
All will be revealed, as they say, next week.