Expectations are often proven to be false when predicting the outcome of football matches, and this has never been better illustrated than in Collingwood’s last two weeks.
Following the Magpies this year could best be described as frustrating, as the team that has been consistently in the top four for the last 6-7 years has shown signs of frailty not seen during that period.
There have been legitimate reasons for their reduced output this year, missing several key players, namely Copeland Trophy winner Dayne Beams.
They have also had their backline decimated, with Heath Shaw missing on Friday night along with long term absences for Alan Toovey, Ben Johnson and Dale Thomas.
Heading to the MCG last week to watch the Pies play the Cats, I had no real expectations of a win, rather a faint hope.
I also wanted to see the effort that has been synonymous with Collingwood, and in my heart I thought that a ‘honourable defeat’ was the best outcome that could be hoped for.
As it turned out, we saw that effort and a lot more as the undermanned Pies withstood a withering counter attack from the best team in the AFL to score an inspiring win.
The key to the win wasn’t just the performance of the experienced stars such as Pendlebury, Swan and O’Brien. It had far more to do with the efforts of the younger, inexperienced players such as Dwyer, Seedsman, Elliott, and Kennedy.
I had thought prior to this game that these players, along with Witts and Williams, would be an area of weakness for Collingwood.
These players have looked quite good at times when playing in a near full strength team, but I thought that it was unlikely that all of them could stand up as they did against a strong team such as the Cats.
Young players often look good when immersed in with a strong, experienced group, but when they make up 25 percent of the team, they can really be tested.
The Magpie youngsters appeared to pass this test, and filled their supporters with hope that normal transmission would resume and we would see more consistent and convincing performances from now on.
One week on, I once again headed to the MCG, with much more confidence as Collingwood took on the reigning premiers Sydney.
I certainly wasn’t over-confident about the result, just that we had an excellent chance to compete against last year’s best team.
I can’t recall being so wrong about a game in a long time! My concerns from the previous week, forgotten in the rapturous aftermath of an inspiring victory, were brought clearly back into focus.
The same group of players who were a major reason for our earlier win all failed miserably on the big stage this week. None had any impact on the game whatsoever.
They were not alone, as there were very few Collingwood players who could have claimed to have played anywhere near their best on the night. Credit must also go to the Swans, who played some fantastic football, physically dominating the clearances in close and then smashing the Pies on the outside.
Modern football requires that teams win the contest, and then spread aggressively to create options. The Swans play on Friday night could be recorded and used as an educational tool for anyone wanting to know how to play football today.
These two weeks of football highlight the importance of the mental side of the game. Last week, you could feel the excitement buzzing from the Collingwood players right from the start.
On Friday night, they appeared flat and disinterested against an opponent who happily exploited this shortcoming.
If Collingwood are to rely on this group of players to bring them success this year, they need to contribute consistently. They are not going to star every week, but they cannot afford to disappear completely as they did on Friday night.
It is not necessarily the end of the line this year for the Magpies, with some potentially easier games coming up over the next few weeks.
However, unless they can find the consistent effort from week to week, they will be relegated to making up the numbers this season.
The win over Geelong showed they have the character to beat the best, but Premierships come when that character is shown every week, not just on a whim.
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