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At the start of the season many sections of the football media predicted the West Coast Eagles to win their fourth premiership, including yours truly.
My reasons were that I expected star youngsters like Jack Darling and Andrew Gaff to continue their natural improvement.
In addition, the brilliant Nic Naitanui in more ways than one would fly to the next level and that the Eagles seemed to have excellent depth in their player ranks.
However almost half way in, that tip is looking grossly inaccurate with West Coast outside the eight with five wins and battling to stay in touch with the top four, where the premiership is won.
Only twice since the top eight was implemented back in 1994 has a team outside the top four won the flag and that was Adelaide in 1997 and 1998.
They finished fifth at the end of the home and away season.
That was a mighty effort by Malcolm Blight and his men, but it was in a finals system that was flawed.
The Eagles have been hit by injuries since the season started and that much talked about depth doesn’t appear to be as good as first thought, with Naitanui in particular a huge loss.
He missed the first five games and his team has performed better on his return, but they are yet to beat a side above them.
Their victims have been four of the bottom five clubs, Brisbane, Melbourne, Bulldogs and the Giants and they had that unimpressive, but famous victory after the siren over North Melbourne when Naitanui was the hero.
But in their other matches they have been disappointing especially at home at Subiaco, where in recent years that venue has been a fortress.
However, they have lost four times there this year and actually were outplayed in all those losses.
So what has gone wrong for one of the pre season premiership favourites? Injuries as mentioned are a factor, but all teams get them.
It just depends on what stage your list is at as to how a team handles them.
If they are among your best players, all sides will suffer to a certain extent and Dean Cox, who has probably been the best ruckmen in the League for the best part of a decade was feeling the pinch at the start of the season without Naitanui.
The Eagles were losing at the centre bounces and clearances as Cox does his best work around the ground, while Naitanui with his massive leap generally dominates the ball ups and boundary throw ins.
Mark LeCras is one of the better small forwards in the league, but is still trying to get back to his best after missing all of last year with a knee injury.
Although he’s in the twilight of his career and hasn’t set the world on fire at Collingwood, West Coast seem to be missing the presence of the bullocking Veteran Quentin Lynch up forward.
And although Josh Kennedy, despite that almost comical run up when shooting for goal has kicked 34 goals, but Jack Darling is still getting used to being the second tall forward after a great start to his league career over the first two seasons as the floating third tall forward.
The midfield is tough and hard working, but seems to lack pace and outside run.
Sharrod Wellingham from Collingwood was seen as the ideal inclusion in that area, but keeps getting injured and has only played three games, while Andrew Gaff is yet to learn properly how to overcome taggers.
Their defence is ok, although they have been without one of their reliable tall defenders for a few weeks, will Schofield and haven’t really adequately replaced him, with Mitch Brown still not establishing himself.
Then there’s the issue of the Coach, John Worsfold. This is his 12th season in charge and he is out of contract at the end of 2013.
You would think there would be some lengthy discussions about his future, if they don’t finish top four and they are underdogs for that at the moment.
This is a club that has only missed the finals seven times in 26 seasons in the AFL, so they demand success and this team talent-wise should be premiership contenders, but Worsfold’s coaching at times from the outside appears to have been underwhelming.
He also hasn’t been proactive in some matches in making changes to try and turn the game and reinvigorate his side.
They would be favourites to beat another major disappointment, St Kilda this week, but then Essendon and Hawthorn in consecutive weeks will be tough on form.
If they lose both of those, the heat will certainly be on the Eagles and their favourite son.
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