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New South Wales will have to overcome a controversial preparation off the field and produce something special if they are to defeat Queensland and claim their first State of Origin series win since 2005. Join us for live scores and commentary from 8.00pm AEST.
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Looking for Game 3 live blog?
» 2013 State of Origin Game 3 – NSW vs Queensland live scores, blog
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NSW could not have asked for worse preparation leading into their most important Origin match in eight seasons.
It all began when Blues forward James Tamou was caught driving unlicensed and nearly four times over the legal alcohol limit just two weeks ago.
It was an act of stupidity that cost Tamou his place in NSW’s line-up. His place in the front row has been taken by promising Tigers prop Aaron Woods.
To make things worse, NSW’s Origin preparations were thrown into further disarray after Blake Ferguson was charged by police for indecent assault on a woman at a Cronulla nightclub.
His place has been taken by Rabbitohs try-scoring machine Nathan Merritt.
Despite the absence of Tamou and Ferguson tonight, NSW will have no excuses if they fail to show up against a Queensland team desperate for redemption after being well out-muscled by the Blues in the opening Origin match in Sydney.
After struggling to match the Blues pack in game one, the Maroons have decided to drop forwards Ashley Harrison and David Shillington in favour of Josh Papalii, with the hope that the young Raiders forward will provide Queensland with more muscle up front.
NSW forwards Paul Gallen, Greg Bird, Luke Lewis, Andrew Fifita and Anthony Watmough all come into this game on the back of dominant performances against the Maroons.
All will need to produce career best performances yet again if they are to lead the Blues to victory tonight.
Lewis and Gallen in particular will have targets on their heads for vastly different reasons tonight and it will be interesting to see how they handle the attention.
Expect Queensland’s edge defence to rush up on Lewis in a bid to stop the Sharks second rower from getting over the advantage line by using his terrific mixture of speed, footwork and strength.
Lewis’ combination with Mitchell Pearce caused enormous headaches for the Maroons left-edge defence in the first game, with Johnathon Thurston in particular really struggling to contain the former Panthers captain.
Gallen meanwhile must be braced for a massive assault from Queensland’s forwards, particularly Nate Myles.
The two exchanged punches late in the first half of the opening Origin match, thus setting up a tantalising re-match between the two players tonight.
For all the passion that both teams possess however, the key to victory tonight for either side will be discipline and structure.
A large reason behind the Blues success in game one came down to their ability to keep things simple by playing up the middle and punching holes through the Maroons defence.
It didn’t take long for the Blues to dominate upfront when they played like this, especially when key playmakers Mitchell Pearce, James Maloney and Robbie Farah managed to play the percentages well.
If the preceding trio can continue to remain calm under pressure and dictate terms with their strong kicking games, then they will go a long way to making the most of the wonderful foundations that will be laid by a very strong NSW pack.
Anything less than a complete performance away from home however and the Maroons will pounce, given their very strong home record of late.
Queensland always play with greater intensity at Suncorp, the spiritual home of Origin football, and will be mightily difficult to stop if they score an early try.
With this in mind, expect superstars Cooper Cronk, Thurston, Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Greg Inglis to really try and get involved tonight after their below par showing in Sydney.
If NSW however can withstand the opening 20 minute onslaught from the Maroons, then this Blues outfit possesses the toughness and skill required to cause the upset and end Queensland’s seven year reign as Origin champions.
NSW by four.
[roargal]