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The intrigue of any drama such as the Ashes lies in the sub-plots within the Epic, which always centres around individual players and you trying to go Nostradamus on their fortunes.
Here is my effort at soothsaying (and I will keep away from Captain Obvious predictions):
1. The best Aussie batsman since Bradman debate will be re-opened during the series
This debate raged at the start of the millennium when Ricky Ponting enjoyed a two-year period of maverick dominance, where he scored 2567 runs at an average of 85.56 with 11 centuries.
In this Ashes, I can see Michael Clarke gaining immortality by scoring big in the series despite him being hampered by injuries of late. Off the field, he has been implicated in the virtual mutiny troubling the Australian camp, where he was blamed for inculcating a rancid culture in the team.
That has been his preparation for the series. A series in which he faces the prospect of being the Lone Ranger with the hugest target on his head due to absence of any viable batting support in the team.
Ashes Prediction: Three centuries and a series average of 80+.
2. The English will finish Phil Hughes Test career after the 2nd Test
It is inconceivable to me that Phil Hughes made the Ashes team this summer.
He has been noted to having problems against swing bowling, short bowling, and as discovered in India, he’s floundered against quality spinners as well.
It’s hard to imagine how he can survive the bowling attack of England, where he will find a high cocktail mix of all three?
The answer is that the South Australian batsman will get destroyed by Messrs Anderson and Swann, and will eventually be dropped after the 2nd Test.
Ashes Prediction: Hughes will make Chris Martin look like Bradman
3. Steve Smith will be the team’s next vice-captain
It was obvious with Brad Haddin’s appointment to the vice-captain’s role that it was a stop-gap measure due to absence of any other viable candidate.
Depending on his form, his tenure could be very short which again will bring up the question of who will get to deputise Michael Clarke.
This is a long shot call, but I think Steve Smith is the ideal candidate for the post.
Which will make people laugh because he is not even certain of a place in the team as well as many still doubting his ability as a Test batsman.
Making the point sound even more daft is the fact that doubts still persist regarding his calibre to play Test cricket, but his performances in India did prove that he has the necessary mettle to succeed in the highest form of cricket.
The rest of the Aussies would have seen that too with his unyielding persona in a crisis and desire to continue fighting and fight some more. A very Baggy Green quality that a new beginning could be built on.
The lad has the intrinsic quality to find a way to survive and then thrive, which is a typical Australian trait.
Ashes Prediction: Average of 45 with many fighting knocks
4. Nathan Lyon will be dropped in the series because of his batting
Though I do not expect the big hearted offie to trouble the English in the series, I can see him being handy by picking two wickets here or three wickets there and averaging 35-odd apiece.
But, he will be dropped under the auspices of team balance because the top six batsmen will again be exposed as incompetent in the testing conditions.
Lyon’s exclusion would result in Ashton Agar being drafted into the squad as a spinning all rounder.
Ashes Prediction: A real kick in the guts to go with the similarly unfair one he felt in India.
5. Shane Watson is key to the team’s bowling
The one thing that has stood out in recent Ashes series on English soil is the Aussie bowlers aversion to swinging the Duke ball. Whether it be conventional swing or reverse swing, they just cannot do it.
Which will vastly reduce their threat to only an attack that can cause real damage with the new ball and the tricks they can conjure with it, which will be difficult against a top three as good as England’s.
The key to changing this situation around is Shane Watson and his mastery of bowling reverse swing with the Duke Ball in England. His 11 Test wickets in England at an average of 15 shows his dexterity with the Duke ball in hand.
He also provides a balance in regards to being a defensive bowler next to the rest, who are very much attacking new-ball bowlers.
If he can bowl 10-15 overs a day in a defensive/attacking guise, where he keeps it tight but has all the batsman on guard against his subtle attack of swing, it will allow the rest of the bowling unit to bowl short, sharp attacking spells from the other end.
Pure and simple, Watson needs to bowl for the team to be a success.
Ashes Prediction: If he bowls regularly he will get 20 wickets at 20 apiece
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