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The toss on Thursday looms as a crucial one for Michael Clarke, with both convention and common sense suggesting that if he wins, he should bat.
But with an eye on the five-day forecast and a glance at how first-class cricket has played out this season, he should go for broke and insert England.
To be fair, the forecast for the five days looks pretty reasonable for an Old Trafford Test, but one thing you can rely on is that at some stage there will be rain, and Clarke will need to make the best of the conditions if Australia is to keep this series alive.
He needs to roll the dice and take a punt on the road less travelled.
If the forecast is to be believed, Thursday looms as a warm but overcast day, and one where there is the potential for the ball to swing, whilst Friday looks to be a brighter day, and in an ideal world, when the wicket should be at its best.
Inserting England is obviously a risk given their depth of talent, but if the Aussies are going to win, they might need to do it against the normal grain of cricket thinking. That would require them to put the hosts in, get them out for less than 200, and bat the whole of Friday as well as most of Saturday, hoping that there is no ‘rearguard’ by England in their second innings.
But is this madness, I hear you say? A glance at the performances of Lancashire and their opponents at Old Trafford this season also provides a pointer towards inserting England. Of course, this should be just used as a guide, given the vagaries of early season form and weather (especially up north), but there is evidence to show that second innings performances have been outweighing first innings efforts.
The statistics for first innings scores reveal 1660 runs for 60 wickets at an average of 27 per wicket, compared to 2188 for 54 wickets at an average of 40 per wicket in the second innings.
The highest score in the first innings is 474, versus a low of 62, with six completed innings yielding an average of 277. In comparison, the second innings averages a much higher score of 365, with a high of 567 and a low of 159. In broad terms, it shows a 90-run difference, or if we go by the average per-wicket difference, 130 runs for a completed innings.
Making an analogy to studying the form on the horses and by taking in to account the current form at track and in the ‘going’, the Aussies would be better suited ‘second up’ rather than ‘first up’.
But, of course, this does not take into account all of the other form factors, such as the fragility of the top six, the superiority of James Anderson and Graeme Swann, or critically, what the wicket presents.
But if Clarke wins the toss, he should take a deep breath, cross his fingers and toes, and insert England.
It’s ‘Truth or Dare’ time for the Australian skipper.
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