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Sydney’s loss to Collingwood on Saturday night, and Fremantle’s record thumping victory over the GWS Giants could have huge ramifications in regards to who finishes where at the end of the season.
The Sydney Swans were, without doubt, disappointing as Collingwood avenged a Round 9 defeat at the MCG by delivering a 29-point masterclass at ANZ Stadium on Saturday night.
Nobody saw that result coming especially as the Swans had won their last six matches in succession and had also beaten Collingwood the last two times (after previously losing eleven in a row dating back to 2006).
Additionally, they kicked the first four goals of the game, and against the Swans no other team would have been able to come back from such a deficit, unless you are Fremantle (who pulled back a similar deficit to force a draw back in Round 8) or Collingwood (who would do likewise to eventually win here).
John Longmire has blasted his team’s effort as being “lazy”, but what could be to blame for the Swans’ loss?
Surely, the Swans were without their main key personnel in Goodes, Reid, Jetta and ‘LRT’, with none of them assured to return until the finals series begins next month.
But their absences have allowed Longmire to blood some new talent, including Jed Lamb, Tom Mitchell, Dean Rampe, Brandon Jack and Xavier Richards, among many others.
In fact, until the loss to Collingwood, the Swans were unbeaten in the six matches in which Goodes had missed, after he suffered a knee injury in the Round 13 loss to Port Adelaide.
It could also be suggested that the extra work load that the young players have had to take on in the absences of the Swans’ key men, may have also played a role in the loss.
Additionally, the main engine room that was Kieren Jack, Jarrad McVeigh and Dan Hannebery also had a rare off-night, as they were shut down by their Collingwood counterparts led by Dane Swan, Luke Ball and Scott Pendlebury.
One man who did stand out though was Kurt Tippett, and ever since he marked his Swans debut with a very quick goal against Port Adelaide in Round 13, he has not disappointed.
His six goals, two of which put the Swans up by nine points early in the second half, kept the Swans in the contest, but as proven last night, the team cannot over rely on him to kick the majority of their goals.
By losing to the Pies, the Swans missed their best chance possible to retain second place on the ladder – and with a tough final fortnight to come against the Cats and the Hawks, to follow next week’s showdown against St Kilda, the Swans could risk dropping to as low as seventh by the end of the season.
Fremantle are snapping at the heels of the defending premiers in their own bid to clinch the double chance, which would be the first for the club since 2006.
The Dockers must have been aware of the opportunity that may have opened up for them in the wake of the Swans’ loss to Collingwood on Saturday night.
Ross Lyon’s men thrashed Greater Western Sydney by 113 points in the final match of the round to make up some percentage, which could be very crucial in the make-up of the top four teams, on the Swans, and maintain their well-deserved place in the top four.
It was a battle between the best defence in the competition and the worst, and the result came as no surprise as the Dockers piled on 24.13 (157) on a team that had just come off its’ maiden victory for the year.
What was also noticed was that after each Giants’ AFL victory, an interstate trip (and a reality check) has followed.
After defeating the Gold Coast Suns for their maiden AFL victory in Round 7 last year, the Giants copped a 92-point hiding from the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, and will return there this Saturday night on the back of their latest reality check by the Dockers in Perth, which followed last week’s breakthrough victory over Melbourne at home.
The other occasion in which the Giants have lost a match interstate after winning a match was in Rounds 19-20 last year; whereby the Giants lost to fellow AFL babies the Suns on the Gold Coast after defeating Port Adelaide at home.
Kevin Sheedy will coach what will presumably be his final AFL game on the holiday strip in the final round, following his and the Giants’ final home match against Richmond in Round 22.
Quite appropriately, Sheedy’s final “home” match as Essendon coach was against Richmond at the MCG in Round 21, 2007, but that occasion was ruined as his Bombers lost to the Tigers, the club he represented as a player, by 27 points.
Sheedy may not want to hope that history repeats, but at the same time, the Giants may not want to risk yet another omen, as an unlikely victory against the Tigers would have to be backed up by yet another interstate trip.
Anyway, back on topic now and the Dockers’ victory over the Giants shows just how far they have progressed under Ross Lyon.
Lyon will become the first man to take Fremantle to consecutive finals series in its history, after previously becoming the first to take St Kilda to four consecutive finals series (2008-11).
This year will be the sixth consecutive year in which Lyon has coached any team (St Kilda and Fremantle combined) to a finals series, after finishing ninth with the Saints in his first year, in 2007.
Now, Lyon has coached Fremantle to its biggest ever victory in the AFL (113 points), beating the record set by Chris Connolly, under whom the Dockers thrashed Collingwood by 112 points back in 2005.
But the big question many Dockers fans will want answered over the next two months: can Lyon do what he couldn’t at St Kilda and coach the Dockers to their maiden premiership?
Lyon is without doubt the best head coach to have never won a premiership as of yet. He was originally an assistant coach at the Sydney Swans when the club won the 2005 premiership, the club’s first in 72 years.
John Longmire, also an assistant coach when the Swans tasted the ultimate success in 2005, took the same team to last year’s flag in his second year as head coach of the Swans.
Lyon has coached the Saints to three grand finals, but was unsuccessful on each occasion: in 2009 against Geelong, which was lost by two goals, and the 2010 pair against Collingwood, the first of which was drawn and the second a heavy 56-point loss which landed the Pies their first flag in two decades.
Should Fremantle reach their first grand final on the last Saturday in September, Lyon will be hoping that it’s fourth time lucky.
But for the time being Lyon is simply doing his job and that is coaching the Dockers to what will be their most successful season in their history.
The team has a very easy run home, their victory against the Giants was the first of three matches (out of four) in which they will take on the bottom three teams to round out the season. Additionally, there is the final home match of the regular season against Port Adelaide in Round 22.
Fremantle, currently with a 14-1-4 record for the year, only need to win at least one of its’ three remainders (very likely to be all three) to beat its most successful regular season record of 15-7, set by the Chris Connolly-coached class of 2006.
Compare that to the Swans’, who have to take on the top two teams (Hawthorn and the Geelong Cats) in their final two rounds, and the potential is there for the Dockers to overtake the defending premiers and possibly finish the season higher than them.
But as the saying goes, anything can happen in AFL footy. Bring on the final three rounds.
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