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Can a team from outside the top four win the flag?

Roar Rookie
28th August, 2013
28
1170 Reads

So the 2013 season is coming to a close, and the race for the flag tightens, the season will end for some teams, and they will look to build for next year.

Even among the teams in the finals, as the bottom four teams are highly unlikely to win the flag from their position.

As a matter of fact, since the replacement of the McIntyre final eight system, no team from who finished outside the top four has gone on to win the flag, and the last time a team from outside the top four won the premiership was in 1998.

While it isn’t impossible to win the premiership from outside the top four, it is incredibly difficult and improbable, meaning that all clubs from Richmond down only have a slight chance to win.

So while many of them will look to push teams in finals, all will be keeping one eye on next season to try and build on their performance this year and hopefully crack the top four next season and a genuine flag tilt.

The article will analyse all clubs from Richmond down to Carlton, and see what they need to add to their list to become that next tear teams.

5. Richmond
The Tigers have come in leaps and bounds this year; they have gone from the perennial ninth to making the finals.

There will be no cruel last minute disappointments or just missing the cut, the Tigers may have arrived.

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The only thing is that while they may have found some support for Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio, things go terribly wrong if those two are completely blanketed, same goes for Dustin Martin.

The Tigers will only push further with another year into their midfielders and hope for a better run with injuries to Cotchin, Newman and Tuck.

6. Collingwood
Collingwood needs two main things, firstly it needs better luck with injury, and it needs to not drop games it should easily win.

While four of Collingwood’s losses came from the top four sides this season which is to be expected, Collingwood also dropped games against Port Adelaide and the Gold Coast, two games they were expected to win and is the difference between a sixth place finish and a finish in the Top 4.

Collingwood also had a very average run with injuries with stars like Beams, Toovey and Thomas all having been sidelined for long periods of time during the season.

7. Port Adelaide
The Power from Port was certainly a surprise packet this season, rising from the depths of obscurity to the finals taking some impressive scalps on the way.

Their seventh place finish (up from eighth thanks to Essendon’s demotion to ninth due to AFL penalty) was certainly the biggest shock as many had Port as one of the cellar dwellers again this year after their shocking performance last year.

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What went wrong this year for Port was a massive form slump in the middle of the year where they lost five consecutive games, which was a massive blow after having done so well at the start of the season winning their first five games.

8. Carlton
Carlton has made this year’s finals by pure luck, and their spot isn’t even guaranteed yet.

While the Blues are the first in line for Essendon’s spot in the eight, many Blues fans have lamented the fact that their side has done little to show that it deserves to be a top eight side, sighting the two losses to Essendon in which it failed to win despite being in winning positions.

Many at Carlton believe that the club has gone backwards and that the club is in a desperate need for a change in personnel.

While there is no doubt that the list will need pruning, and new players are needed to add to the list, many are hoping calmer heads prevail and that the club won’t simply react to this year’s failure.

Carlton will once again be have a midfielder and will be looking for a key position player when the trade and draft period rolls around.

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