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It seems that, for all intents and purposes, this year’s Heineken Cup will be the last. Discussions between the English and the French on the one side and the countries that make up the Pro12 have broken down.
The Anglo-French have signified they want to start their own breakaway competition.
When it all boils down, there are one basic point each of the sides in the ERC debate (Anglo-French clubs, and Pro12 Clubs) have close to their hearts that neither refuses to let go. They are as follows:
Anglo-French
Merit qualification. Allowing both Scottish and both Italian Pro12 as well as the majority of Welsh and Irish teams allows those teams to tank in their domestic league.
Not to mention the fact the winner of the prior year’s Heineken Cup gives their competition an extra spot has in the past few years essentially guaranteed all Irish teams would able to enter.
Pro12
All the major European rugby nations are represented. The poor showing of the Italian Pro12 teams, not to mention the problems of the Dragons and Edinburgh would mean a large degree of the European rugby public would be left without a team in the running.
Both of these issues are, upon reflection, self-evident and unavoidable.
It was always going to be the case that a team guaranteed qualification wouldn’t put as much emphasis on their domestic league, especially when compared to the leagues where competition has been instilled by the threat of exclusion.
On the other hand, the pure statistical fact that Wales, Scotland, Ireland, and Italy have either smaller rugby populations or smaller overall populations meant their clubs might not be able to compete.
But there’s no reason why they’re irreconcilable. Consider the proposed reduction of places down to 20 from 24.
Assuming the winner of the Challenge Cup and the previous winner of the Heineken Cup are automatically qualified, that gives 18 open spaces.
This means each of the three major leagues in the competition would each receive six places.
For the Top 14 and the Premiership it would be a straight table/ladder comparison, but the Pro12 could have their spots allocated so that Ireland, Italy, Wales, and Scotland are each guaranteed at least one spot.
The last two would be overall in the league – wildcards, if you will.
The team that qualifies to take each of those countries’ places are also the best of the respective country.
In such a scenario, competition for qualification is re-introduced into the Pro12 without compromising the ability of the Pro12 countries to be represented. It’s a pretty clear win-win.
However, then we turn to the issue of why such an obvious solution hasn’t been reached. It would appear this solution is much more to the liking of the Anglo-French clubs.
They would, after all, get their reduction in numbers, and merit qualification with no real change to what it means for their clubs.
I hardly think the Pro12 countries would have been pushing this compromise given they have to step back somewhat in order to get there.
This leads me to believe the Pro12 countries haven’t been the ones budging. This is also why, in my opinion, the Anglo-French have been so ready to set up their own alternative.
A lack of settlement on the part of the Pro12 unions has forced the Anglo-French to bring out the big guns and show them that this compromise is still better than the alternative, which is no Pro12 clubs at all.
Rumour is South African Currie Cup teams are considering joining. The Pro12 unions would be wise to realise that the above compromise may not be as good for them as the current Heineken Cup model has been in the past, but it’s better than nothing at all.
But one other interested party should be the ARU. If South African teams do join this new ‘Champion’s Cup’, as it has been christened, where does SANZAR go with Super Rugby?
As it stands it seems most SA rugby fans already want out of Super Rugby, sometimes for similar reasons as the Anglo-French clubs who want out of the Heineken Cup. Both Super Rugby and the Heineken Cup may be on the way out.
The ARU would do well to plan ahead and make sure if Super Rugby continues as just the Australian and New Zealand conferences. Would the broadcast money and fan interest be there?
Is there room for a new franchise in each of the conferences to make up the numbers again? Would a re-jigged finals qualification scheme work out?
Given the ARU’s reliance on Super Rugby in order to develop Test-quality players and fan interest, this could very quietly become an existential crisis, at least until the new changes to club rugby in Australia get sorted out.
In the mean time, however, if this new future of club rugby includes a Champions League-style club cup, the ARU should also consider the perils of the Heineken Cup when designing it.
Either way, one hopes the ARU have one eye on Europe, watching very attentively over the next few months.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.