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We all know the drill by now, too well unfortunately. Reasonably decent build-up into The Rugby Championship season, players picked from the best-performed Super Rugby sides, things are looking up.
Then the first flogging comes. And the Wallabies promise they’ll learn from it. But they don’t change anything. And they get flogged again. And this time they promise they’ll really learn from it. And we stupidly believe it to a degree.
Then comes a lucky win, and with it some signs that perhaps they are learning from their mistakes, heading in the right direction.
Give them a bit of time, you know – new coach, injuries, new personnel, new approach, new game plan.
However, the beatings continue, and moral does not improve. Stupid mistakes prevail. Worse, the same stupid mistakes prevail.
They may or may not be the worst group of players to ever wear the Wallabies jersey, and everyone has an opinion on why.
Then comes the win. That really good win that comes from a display of which we all knew they were capable.
Things have clicked. Combinations are blooming. Predictions are made, and confidence swells. We’re back, we’re on our way, again.
Then it happens again. The earth-shattering loss. And the cycle resumes.
That’s where we are with the Wallabies again right now. After a display at Twickenham last weekend that most of us would prefer to forget about, the Wallabies have again put an impressive win on the board, accounting for Italy 50-20 in Turin.
It’s just a shame I’m not game to get excited by it.
That even seems a touch unfair, too. There were so many improvements on the previous week in London that it’s hard to believe it was essentially the same side.
Breakdown intensity was better, defensive realignments after first phase were better. The scrum was even better, though that’s coming from a low base.
The backs looked dangerous when setting up option runners and set-plays. The ‘shovelball’ was handled pretty well by the Italian defence, on the whole, but when Quade Cooper, especially, and Matt Toomua really turned on their deft passing games, the Wallabies looked every bit like a team ready to bring up the half century.
It was, genuinely, a wonderful performance.
Nevertheless, we all know what that means, don’t we. And we all know how Ireland rarely let the Wallabies have their way. We know what’s coming.
And this is the worrying bit. Again.
So what was good against Italy, and should continue against Ireland on Saturday?
The attacking intent, certainly. In the last four outings, the Wallabies have put on a neat 150 points and scored 18 tries.
In the eight games prior to the Rosario win, the Wallabies had managed only nine tries and tallied 132 points.
Straight away, the shift in mindset is obvious. The Rosario game was the first time Toomua was used at inside centre – he replaced Christian Lealiifano at halftime – and there’s very little doubt that his structured game has been the perfect foil for Cooper’s ad lib play at 10.
It will be important to keep this up against Ireland, too, because as hard as we know they’ll be at the breakdown, they have only crossed the stripe 16 times in eight games this year.
During their five Six Nations games, they could only average one try per game, and there were two games in there where they didn’t score at all.
Certainly, it will be in the Wallabies’ interests to be the front-runners in Dublin.
What else?
Well, if Rosario is to be used as some kind of line in the sand for attacking mindset, what else sticks out is that the Wallabies are getting more out of their limited time with the ball.
In their last four outings, they’ve averaged less than 48 percent possession and just over 48 percent territory as well.
Only the third Bledisloe Test saw them finish with more territory and ball than the opposition. So while the Wallabies have managed 18 tries with less than half the ball in play, they’ve only conceded 11 despite spending more time in their own half.
In fairness though, the Wallabies first-phase defence hasn’t been the issue in 2013; it’s been the inability to re-align after broken play that’s brought them undone.
And what wasn’t flash in Turin? All the usual stuff, if we’re honest.
The scrum held reasonably well against a strong pack, but there are still a number of areas that will need addressing this week.
I think I counted three free kicks given against the Wallabies for packing too early, and even if Italian loosehead Michele Rizzo amplified things by not really taking the hit, this goes to Scott Allen’s point last week about adapting for opposition illegalities in-game.
There did look to be a more concerted eight-man scrummaging effort this time, but I’m still not entirely happy with the locks’ engagement height. I’ve been going on about this all year, I know, but it’s still there.
Rob Simmons was surprisingly good at blindside, but if Scott Fardy is declared fit to play Ireland, I expect Simmons will go back to lock for Sitaleki Timani, who once again was conspicuous by his absence around the park.
He wasn’t literally invisible, but it still amazes me that such bulk can have so little impact. I just don’t get it, and I wonder sometimes if I’m judging him harshly. Perhaps someone can tell me what I’m missing.
Anyway, the worry for the Wallabies now is their consistent inconsistency. Think the Second and Third Lions Tests, or Newlands to Rosario, or Dunedin to Twickenham.
They’ve got a shocking habit of winning one in a row, which makes this game in Dublin all the more dangerous.
So I want to get excited about the win in Turin, I really do. Sadly, and perhaps finally, recent experience is ruling the emotions. And because of that, there’s just no way I’m letting myself get too far ahead.