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Australia’s chronically frustrating all-rounder has now reached a juncture that will undoubtedly shape the future of his Test career.
Of course, it has been injuries that have threatened Watson’s career previously, but it’s now his performance – or lack thereof – that is set to put a premature stop to his presence in the Test arena.
Just momentarily, set aside the 32-year-old’s immense talent and the irresistible flexibility he can offer at his fleeting best, and instead focus on the raw facts. Cricket is a numbers game after all.
Since the final days of November 2011, which draw a line on the most recent two years of his career, Watson has played 15 Tests for his country.
In that time, the bulky right-hander has scored 891 runs from 29 trips to the crease, at an average of 30.72.
The lone hundred in that period – his 176 against England at The Oval – came in a dead rubber against a side fielding two Test debutants in its five-man attack.
It also must be remembered that an average of 31.28 from 30 innings during the very same period wasn’t enough to prevent the recent disposal of Ed Cowan. Even fast bowler Mitchell Starc has averaged more in his 20 efforts with the bat in the same span.
However, Watson is afforded considerably more leniency than most Test batsmen; in part due to his often-cited potential, but particularly because of his capabilities with the ball in hand.
Yet, during that rather barren 15-game stretch with the bat, Watson has taken just eight wickets across 21 innings at 59.25 runs apiece, with a strike rate of 158.38.
To put those numbers into perspective, Michael Clarke owns a vastly superior bowling record from his 86 completed overs in the same two years.
At times, statistical references can be dismissed; their true relevance often skewed by factors out of one’s control.
For Watson, however, these numbers paint a clear picture of his struggles, with an inability to impact matches with both bat and ball reflected in a damning set of figures.
Which brings us to the upcoming Ashes Test to be played in Adelaide; a fitting venue for the crossroads at which Watson finds himself.
The ongoing, modern transformation of the famous old ground represents a shift in thinking towards a more sustainable future.
A similar shift in thinking towards Watson’s value in the side could realised there too.
Indeed, the Adelaide Oval is the very type of venue where a man of Watson’s skill-set is most required.
On a flat wicket, the former vice captain’s ability to plunder the ball to all corners will be critical at the top of the order, while his bowling capacity will be needed to alleviate the burden on his team’s frontline seamers.
Although the pitches found in Brisbane and Perth can, at times, render all-rounders somewhat insignificant, the often desolate surfaces found in South Australia’s capital place a premium on the multi-talented performers.
Thus, Watson is set to enter the stage that he’s most suited to, the stage that may determine the future of his career.
At 32 years of age, the unfulfilled talent is rapidly reaching the point where potential is ignored; selectors instead, examining his case match by match, performance by performance, as the weight of an underwhelming set numbers becomes more burdensome.
Missed amid the hoopla surrounding Australia’s 381-run victory at the Gabba was the incredibly disappointing performance completed by Watson.
Had the home side not hammered England by a colossal margin, it’s unquestionable that the right-hander’s soft dismissals in either innings would have been heavily scrutinised, given his importance at No. 3 in the order.
Of course, it would be hard to drop a batsman just a handful of innings after a thumping hundred. Yet, the continual rise of James Faulkner places Watson in a precarious situation.
If Australia’s selectors do opt to go with the left-arm all-rounder in Adelaide, Watson’s lenient ride may find itself coming to an abrupt halt.
Faulkner would undoubtedly wrestle much of the bowling duties away from his teammate, leaving the indifference of Watson’s batting exposed from the shade usually provided by his stints with the ball.
As an all-rounder, his batting average is tolerable. As a batsman, it’s not even close to being so.
Those facts leave the enigmatic veteran in a state of perplexity; Australia’s rather sudden capture of a strong position in this Ashes series oddly placing Watson at a greater threat.
Instead of his versatility elevating him above others in times of despair, his side’s recapture of form and handsome 1-0 lead only serve to highlight his frustrating mediocrity.
Now, with the Adelaide Test looming, it’s clear that Watson’s time is running out.
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