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While everyone wants their team to win the flag, making the eight is generally the accepted cut-off level for calling a season successful. But the majority of teams don’t make the eight.
After picking the top four and rounding out the eight, here are the teams I can’t see playing finals footy this September.
9. Essendon
The big unknown. Just how much effect did the investigation of last year have? Did it help them or hurt them?
Certainly their emotion-charged first round win over Adelaide at Subiaco seemed to be in part inspired by the pressure on the team and particularly its captain Jobe Watson and coach James Hird.
But then again it seemed to affect the bombers awfully in the last month of footy; it was only in the last month that the Dons fell out of the top four before being booted out of the top eight.
Yet how good is this Essendon team really?
Watson is a star, Brendon Goddard is a gun and Dyson Heppell could be anything.
Yet of their other hopes, Michael Hurley is injury-prone, Terry Daniher is yet to prove himself the messiah and Jake Carlisle improved enormously, yet still provides Dons’ supporters with moments of anguish.
Much like Richmond, Essendon will need to improve again this season to show last season’s run wasn’t a fluke.
In a short, much will need to go right for the bombers to launch a September assault, almost as much as went wrong off the field last year.
10. Carlton
Carlton will get the Blues this season, or at least they will unless they can sort out their key positions.
Jarrad Waite is unfortunately too injury-prone to be relied upon, and Levi Casboult and Same Rowe show potential but, again, cannot be relied upon.
Even Michael Jamieson looks as though he may be using the same pair of shoulders as Chris Judd.
A lot rests therefore on Lachie Henderson. The key position issues suffered by Carlton are a pity for their supporters, as the rest of their team is potentially top four standard.
Can Mick Malthouse get all the Blues’ talent to click? Can he get his team, like Ken Hinkley at Port Adelaide, peforming as the sum of its parts?
It will be a challenge, and this year the Blues may have to rely upon more than one team being kicked out of the finals to play in September.
11. Port Adelaide
Who would have thought the Power would be leading the second-placed team of 2013 at halftime in Round 2 of the finals?
A phenomenal season from Port Adelaide that was built on the back not of exceptional players, but self-belief.
The Power were simply tremendous at willing themselves back into contests, and recorded some famous wins – None better, of course, than the elimination win over Collingwood.
However, the season after a great rise can often be the hardest. To avoid ‘second year blues’, the Power will need to continue to focus on their strengths and their fearless gameplan.
Chad Wingard and Travis Boak are genuine A-graders, and Justin Westhoff, Ollie Wines, Hamish Hartlett and Brad Ebert will aim to make that transition this season.
Jared Polec looks a bargain pick up, while Jay Schulz and Kane Cornes just keep on keeping on.
The Power can be stretched down back however, and will need big seasons from Alipate Carlile and Jackson Trengove to remain in the September hunt.
12. Gold Coast
Gary Ablett is the best player in the competition and was given his just rewards last season with a second Brownlow medal.
Jaeger O’Meara shocked no one by playing like a superstar. Cambell Brown shocked no one by punching a teammate in the face.
The Suns have such a disparity between the most talented and least talented players who make their best 22, that this season, despite greater expectation, may mirror last year.
A Suns player may win the Brownlow, a Suns player may win the Rising Star (Jack Martin), but the Suns may win not all that much else.
Expect improvement from David Swallow. Hopefully Rory Thompson can stay fit and prove himself as one of the best tall defernders in the game, and there should be more goals out of Charlie Dixon, Tom Lynch and Sam Day.
Harley Bennell should continue his rise to stardom while Gary Ablett cements himself as one of the all-time greats.
13. Adelaide
Perhaps a little bit harsh on Adelaide to name them 13th, however until Taylor Walker can get back into the game and the sort of form he is capable of, don’t expect all that much from the Crows.
While James Podsiadly is an adequate replacement, he is no Tex. Expect Adelaide to struggle for goals and to rely on one man more than any other club in the league.
This one man is of course Patrick Dangerfield.
Already a star of the competition and you get the sense that he could even get better, Dangerfield is probably the most popular tip for this year’s Brownlow Medal.
There is also young talent coming through, with both Matt and Brad Crouch showing promise, Sam Kerridge showed bits last season and Eddie Betts will add goals up forward.
Daniel Talia and Ben Rutten need big seasons but if Adelaide is going to September, it will be on the shoulders of Patrick Dangerfield and his big mate Tex.
14. Western Bulldogs
A great revival has fuelled the fires of hope at Whitten Oval over the summer. From a team many were calling uncompetitive at the start of the year, the Bulldogs certainly weren’t when it came to the back-end of the season.
Using Daniel Giansiracusa as a sub in role that may pave the way for other clubs employing their veterans similarly, the Bulldogs rode a wave of confidence.
One of the chief players in this revival was Ryan Griffen, now captain, and there was a welcome return for Adam Cooney.
Good mates Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis will become the heart of the team, and Jordan Roughead and Michael Talia will be given chances to improve their defensive abilities, as the Bulldogs start to bed down a solid back six.
Despite the recruitment of Stewart Crameri, there will still be issues in kicking a score, and expect opposition teams to do a lot of homework on how to beat the Doggies, who may find it difficult to continue their awesome late season form.
Although this year may be a bit of a reality check, it is now possible for Dogs’ fans to see the bright horizon that awaits their team.
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