On day two of Round 3 of the 2014 season, it’s time for the top four of 2013 to start winning.
PANTHERS (-4.0) over Bulldogs
Travelling to Melbourne without Jamie Soward, the Panthers showed that they could be a genuine threat come September. Even though they suffered a loss, they went head-to-head against a top Melbourne squad and earned more respect around the NRL. This squad definitely has the ability to make some noise in the finals.
Canterbury quickly got their season back in order with a 38-point thrashing of a Cronulla squad beset by injury. Nevertheless, that shouldn’t take away from the competency displayed by the Bulldogs, as their offensive cohesion was significantly improved on Round 1. Though they missed holding the Sharks to nil, they have sufficient defence to trouble the rest of the NRL.
This has the makings of a close game with two teams who should be in position to challenge for the Top 8 at the end of the season.
The Bulldogs showed new life in Round 2 and it was the revival of halfback Trent Hodkinson that sparked their performance. The talent he showed last week had been withdrawn for an extended period of time but it now gives Canterbury a legitimate second playmaking option.
Penrith should also get a new playmaker back in Soward, who hasn’t made a major impact so far this season. With the try-scoring potential of their backs, the Panthers can definitely trouble the Bulldogs on the outside.
The Canterbury big men are good enough to overwhelm the Panthers, as players like James Graham and Dale Finucane are playing some fantastic football. But Penrith have their own stars in Tim Grant and Elijah Taylor, with the latter looking like one of the best buys of the season.
This match will come down to which team is able to control the ruck and make their opportunities count. The Bulldogs could be in for a shock after their big win against Cronulla as the Panthers offer a much more dangerous attacking presence. Penrith can put up points quickly and have the ability to put Canterbury under pressure early.
This should be a close one but the new-look Panthers side has enough talent to come away with the win.
Dragons (-4.0) over SHARKS
For the first time since Round 14 of 2011, the Dragons are on top of the NRL ladder. With an impressive average winning margin of 19.5 points, St. George Illawarra have been dominant in the early stages of 2014. A strong win in New Zealand continued their impressive form, with Gareth Widdop shaping up as one of the best signings of the season.
By contrast, Cronulla haven’t been on the bottom of the table since Round 6 of 2010, but an injury-ravaged 2014 squad is now anchored there. Scoring an average of eight points per game so far, the Sharks are falling apart without their star playmaker Todd Carney. A last-second try against the Bulldogs kept them from becoming the first scoreless team of 2014, but this club needs a revival soon.
The offensive ineptitude of the Sharks is evidence of how important it is to have a top-level playmaker if a team wants to compete in the NRL. The team couldn’t take advantage of the few opportunities it was able to create last week, and they were already few and far between. But the playmaking may not even matter, with the injury and suspension toll in the forwards leaving Cronulla desperate for some quality reinforcement.
All this seems to be leading up to a big win for the Dragons as they continue to find form behind the efforts of Widdop. The backs look dangerous and the forwards are overachieving, pushing St George Illawarra into good early season positioning. There isn’t much hope for Cronulla in this one without either of their first-choice halves, but the Dragons can’t afford to get overconfident this early in the season.
St George Illawarra can’t afford to look past the Sharks, as the team needs as many wins as possible before their stretch of game against tougher opponents begins in a couple weeks. The Dragons should have too much quality for a collapsing Cronulla side, but if Todd Carney returns this game could get a lot closer.
With Carney’s attendance in doubt, the Dragons should cover this line.
COWBOYS (-8.0) over Warriors
In another close game last week, the Cowboys couldn’t get away with the win in Brisbane. It was a hard-fought encounter but the team couldn’t find their magic of Round 1. There has to be a fear that the team could suffer from its seasonal inconsistency and find themselves back in the fight for the Top 8 by the end of the season.
Meanwhile, the Warriors suffered a second-half capitulation for the second week in a row. They’ve scored one try to the eight against them in the 80 minutes of second-half football played so far – against two of the season’s predicted cellar dwellers in the Dragons and Eels no less. Though the Dragons are better than expected, it doesn’t excuse the -39 point differential of New Zealand.
The Warriors struggled immensely at home so it’s hard to expect a better performance from them after they make the trip to Townsville. New Zealand haven’t been able to create a lot of attacking opportunities – unexpected considering their squad make-up.
Chad Townsend and Nathan Friend aren’t particularly great on offence but Shaun Johnson hasn’t been able to fire so far either. Sam Tomkins has created opportunities but his small frame has caused some significant defensive issues.
The Cowboys have been a lot better in attack thanks to the majesty of Johnathan Thurston. But if he isn’t on form, North Queensland can find themselves with similar issues to the Warriors.
The battle in the forwards could quickly decide this one, with the representative forwards of North Queensland looking like they could dominate the talented but raw players of New Zealand. The loss of lock Elijah Taylor has proven bigger than expected and the team has struggled to replace him.
Additionally, the heat of Townsville could cause some serious problems for the Warriors and may threaten their fitness.
For a New Zealand team looking to stop an early season slide, travelling to the northern reaches of Queensland probably isn’t the match-up they wanted. The Warriors’ flimsy defence doesn’t have much of a chance in the heat against the Cowboys and they’ll be made to pay.
North Queensland to win this one convincingly.
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