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The weekend before Ewen McKenzie named his first Wallabies squad of the season, I wrote of the impact Quade Cooper’s season-stunting shoulder injury must’ve had on the pencilled-in squad at the time.
Anywhere up to four backline positions were directly affected by the required combination shuffling – maybe even a fifth when you consider the importance of the partnership between scrumhalf and flyhalf.
With Cooper the incumbent Wallabies vice-captain to Ben Mowen, who wasn’t going to be selected due to his impending departure to France, Cooper’s absence had the potential to alter who was picked at hooker, lock and in the backrow depending on which player is appointed the new captain.
But after this wacky weekend just gone, I wonder if a few of the pieces have now fallen into place ahead of the First Test against France in Brisbane on Saturday week.
Here are some random thoughts around the aforementioned positions.
Flyhalf
A lot of the initial expectation when Quade Cooper went down was that Brumbies’ No. 10 Matt Toomua would move in one spot for the Wallabies.
Then McKenzie named him as one of three centres to “help the armchair selectors try and understand how we think”, giving a pretty strong indication that Toomua is one of a handful of certain selections and will remain at inside centre where he starred last year.
This turned No. 10 into a race in two between Waratahs Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale. With Toomua removed from the flyhalf race, the next assumption was that with Beale arguably the next closest in skill set and depth of trick bag to Cooper, that he would get the nod for the First Test.
And he might yet, but I’d be going with Foley.
While Beale’s attacking talents are obvious, much of the Waratahs’ success this year has been because of the extra width Beale has been operating from in attack – width provided to him by Foley.
Foley doesn’t have the length of pass that Cooper does, but no-one does. However, he has directed the Waratahs around the field very well this year, and deserves a shot at the same role in a gold jersey.
Furthermore, Foley’s kicked 54 from 70 shots at goal this year; a smidge over 77%. He’s kicked 26 of 35 penalty goal attempts, which is a bit over 74%, and I can think of four penalty shots this year that hit the uprights.
Christian Lealiifano was lauded for his sharp-shooting in a Wallabies jersey last year, and Foley’s less than a timber-width off converting penalties at around 85%. That’s a more than useful attribute.
Scrumhalf
A month ago on the Cheap Seats podcast, I said that I expected Will Genia would hold onto his Wallabies No. 9 spot. I then thought the Brumbies’ Nic White’s goal-kicking might be nudging him ahead, but I think I’m wavering again.
With only a week to prepare for the French after this round of Super Rugby, combinations will enable the Wallabies to hit the ground running. This puts Waratahs scrumhalf Nick Phipps right into calculations.
After the last couple of games I think Phipps is actually the form player in this position anyway, and like Foley deserves his shot. His ruck service is vastly improved this year, and seems to be getting better as the Waratahs’ pigs provide more and more front-foot ball.
He’s also picking his moments to run better than he ever has, which players tend to do when confidence within and around them is sky-high.
Centres
Toomua appears a lock at inside centre, and he has been playing well anyway, so that’s not a major concern. The concern is that McKenzie, in “helping the armchair selectors”, named only two other players as centres – Brumbies midfielders Christian Lealiifano and Tevita Kuridrani.
The problem McKenzie has created for himself is that neither are in brilliant form. What’s more, Lealiifano proved on the Spring Tour last year that while he could cover 13 in a game if required, starting there is a whole other story.
Lealiifano can provide decent midfield and goal-kicking cover from the bench, but Kuridrani – like the Brumbies – has been disappointing over the past two weeks.
This is one of those situations where McKenzie needs to look outside his brackets. Happily, having his hand forced in another position actually solves the outside centre conundrum.
Back three
Israel Folau at fullback and Nick Cummins on the left wing pick themselves. The No. 14 jersey is a little more difficult, with Pat McCabe, Adam Ashley-Cooper and revitalised Waratah Rob Horne the players nominated.
I’ve recently been suggesting that if McKenzie were tempted to leave Ashley-Cooper at 13, then Rob Horne would more than adequately do the job on the wing. But so would McCabe, and he’d be equally deserving. All three deserve to be in the 23 somewhere.
So this means that Ashley-Cooper definitely should be moved into the centre bracket. Ashley-Cooper at 13 and one of Horne or McCabe on the wing is a better performing selection currently than Kuridrani at 13 and leaving one of the other three out of the side altogether.
Captain
I mentioned in a comment reply last week that while I could flip a coin between Stephen Moore and Michael Hooper, I think McKenzie is leaning toward Moore, and potentially as a long-term appointment right through to the Rugby World Cup next year.
With David Pocock to return and challenge Hooper at openside again, this probably makes the most sense.
Lock
I’ve no doubt Rob Simmons will be one lock and will run the Wallabies lineout, but I’m wavering on the other spot.
A month ago, I still thought it would be James Horwill, but I’ve really enjoyed what Luke Jones has been offering up lately. He looks more ready to go at Test level than Will Skelton.
Backrow
Hooper’s a certainty, and Scott Fardy being named as a flanker suggests he is too.
And while Scott Higginbotham has been playing pretty well, I think there might be logic in using Wycliff Palu while he’s fit and firing. Higginbotham will still see plenty of international minutes this season.
Props
This is the only uncertain area for me because there are no obvious standouts on either side.
It might make sense to go with a Brumbies front row for the sake of combinations, but I think Ben Alexander has slipped in the last month. Sekope Kepu’s been so up and down that Paddy Ryan’s been starting for the Waratahs, and Ryan himself will train with the Wallabies to undergo some remedial action.
How can Kepu be picked if a bloke with scrummaging issues is being preferred ahead of him?
I’ll leave McKenzie and Andrew Blades to work that one out.