While you don’t win the Super Rugby title until you’ve won it, there are three teams sitting closest to the trophy.
Having looked at the teams with no chance and those who are still in the hunt, today we run the rule over sides all but guaranteed a finals berth.
The legacy of the Crusaders is still bright and they can still beat anyone on any given day. Granted that it’s been six years since they lasted drank from the Super Rugby cup, but they have always been contenders. Todd Blackadder has found it hard to win with the team, and maybe Robbie Deans had a secret, but the fact remains that no one takes the Crusaders lightly.
They lead the New Zealand conference after a good run of wins, with the Sharks spoiling the party in Round 14. They have the best chance of regaining the New Zealand conference with two home games and an away game at the Hurricanes’ stadium.
They have the big names in New Zealand on their roster and even without Dan Carter, they have managed to keep the pressure on the leaders. Ryan Crotty and Kieran Read have led the team well and are capable of striking fear into the opponents even before they take to the field. They aren’t seven-time champions by mistake or luck.
Many teams that have played in Christchurch have come away with their tail between their legs. The talisman Richie McCaw has taken the Crusaders to many finals and it looks as though they’ll do it again this year.
The top two teams are the two teams that have always promised to win but have never been able to close out the final.
The Waratahs have been in the finals three times only to lose to the Crusaders twice and the Brumbies once. This year, with the roster filled with stars, they have the best chance in a long time to claim the long awaited title. They have the leading try-scorer in the backs and some world-best players in the trenches.
The Waratahs sit two points off the leaders but have a game in hand. Their massive win in New Zealand gave them momentum that hopefully the June break won’t stop. They have two home games which are winnable and an away game at Suncorp against the struggling Reds. They potentially can get 15 points out of these matches, but realistically will be looking at 12 points. This will be enough to leapfrog the leaders, the Sharks.
Coach Michael Cheika has made the team click better on the past two seasons than any other NSW coach and the belief can be seen on the field. The boys are playing hard for each other and are prepared to put their bodies on the line. They may be only three points clear of their closest Australian rival but the positive points difference reaching over 100 shows that they score a lot more than being scored on.
Most of their wins have been by 20 points or more. It’s a difficult team to beat, especially when they are ahead at the half. The Sydney stadium is not a good place to play for the opposition – no team has beat the Waratahs at home this season.
The Sharks have defied the stats and stand on the top of the table. On paper, their performances sit near the bottom of the respective stats tables but somehow they have remained at the top since round 1. Jake White has brought them this far but it seems that the tiniest slip will create an avalanche form slump.
The Sharks have lost games they should have won and won games that they should have lost. The epic encounter in Christchurch in Round 14 will be remembered by many for a long time and may be the season defining game. They are the only South African team to have a successful tour, winning three of the four matches, but they have lost key home games. Their defence has been good enough to only allow an average of 18 points scored against them but their attacking game is one of the worst in the competition, even though they have some of the best attacking players in their ranks.
The Sharks team alone could make up 75 per cent of a Springbok team, but they don’t use this potential, instead relying on outdated tactics that other teams are starting to counter. They will gain a place in the play off rounds but it’s doubtful they’ll remain on top. Their closest South African rival are the Bulls but they are too far back to threaten an upset.
It is mathematically possible for nine teams to make the play-offs but there are only six spots available, which means the last three weeks will have us pulling out calculators to see who will make it.
The best thing about the competition this year has been the unpredictable nature of the games, with an upset happening almost every week. The finals are three weeks away, using the Super Rugby calendar, so some teams have one last chance to make it, but there isn’t a certain winner and I dare not call one.
Although, being a Sharks supporter I hope they get at least one championship medal this century.
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