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The final week of the Rugby Championship sees the All Blacks with one last Ellis Park-shaped hurdle standing in their way of another unbeaten campaign, while Australia head to Mendoza to deal with the twin challenges of Kurtley Beale and playing Argentina at home.
And while you may be lamenting the likelihood of this being the final edition of what has become a very popular forum, I have some good news. With not too much persuasion at all, Digger and Biltong have agreed to go around once more next week, where we’ll wrap up the tournament as only we can.
Some great questions and responses once again, to the point I had to double check which one I’d asked before putting this all together. A sure sign that the forum is becoming bigger than the contributors.
Brett McKay asks: Has Heyneke Meyer fallen onto a halves pairing in Cobus Reinach and Patrick Lambie that might be the difference between reaching the Rugby World Cup semis and not?
As Reinach and Lambie started running amok last weekend at Newlands, I couldn’t help thinking of the similarities from twelve months ago, when forced due to the injury, Ewen McKenzie stumbled across the 10-12 pairing of Quade Cooper and Matt Toomua, who would then go on play exceptionally well together for the Wallabies on the Spring Tour.
And so I wonder if Meyer will take a bit of time to give this combination some due consideration, even knowing how much faith he puts in the likes of Fourie du Preez and Ruan Pienaar – and that he is trying to give Handre Pollard time to develop into the Springbok number 10.
I just wonder. If du Preez or Pienaar respectively have even slightly underwhelming Japanese and European seasons, Meyer could do a lot worse than call on the Sharks pairing.
Digger: In my view, this would be the halves pairing I would like to see given a decent opportunity to start and develop around heading towards the World Cup.
I highly doubt, however, that Meyer would share this view. ‘FDP’ is his man and I don’t think that will change any time soon.
I suspect the only way these two would be involved in the Rugby World Cup as a pairing will be if Meyer again has no other choices.
Biltong: I doubt that, Meyer has a pecking order for his halfbacks, and it starts with du Preez, then Pienaar, then Francois Hougaard, and only then comes Reinach.
If Reinach were given enough opportunity to prove his worth he might be able to climb the ladder into contention, but how many minutes will he get before du Preez and Pienaar comes back?
Lambie has a mathematical chance, but only if Heyneke Meyer finally releases the belief that Morne Steyn is done, and I think chances of that are slim.
Diggercane asks: Are the All Blacks potentially making a rod for their own backs by not giving their second-string halfbacks more game time behind Aaron Smith?
It is difficult to be overly critical of the current All Black set up. Results speak for themselves and when faced with similar issues replacements have been found and performed well, however halfback is an area of concern for me.
Aaron Smith forms such an integral cog of the All Black machine it is almost unthinkable if he is made unavailable and I do not believe any of his potential replacements are anywhere near the level they need to be.
I hazard to use the word ‘experimenting’ at Test level, but I do think more time should be afforded to the TJs and TKBs of the world in case the unthinkable does happen.
Biltong: It is a good question, because when you consider what Steve Hansen has achieved over the past three years in developing his squad, scrumhalf is possibly the one position he has been neglecting.
But what do you do when Aaron Smith is in such great form? It is hard to let go at times.
Brett: Potentially, they are, for sure. Tawera Kerr-Barlow and TJ Perenara don’t really have anyone snapping at their heels as the next in line, but nor are they exactly getting much opportunity to have an impact on games.
Should the All Blacks clean sweep the Rugby Championship this weekend, I think they could do a lot worse than giving Aaron Smith the Spring Tour off, while they have a serious look at Perenara and ‘TKB’.
Biltongbek asks: How much of the Wallaby loss do you prescribe to physical fitness, bench impact and mental awareness and mental toughness?
I think we can throw out the lack of conditioning right away, I don’t believe that for one second. Yes, the two benches made a difference, Pat Lambie, Schalk Burger and Cobus Reinach most certainly did whereas the only impact Beale made was negative.
But then I think the Aussies lost focus when Lambie dropped the goal and South Africa came at them. There were a number of uncharacteristically poor tackle attempts, and it wasn’t by subs only.
Digger: As Roar regular Red Kev wrote recently, it’s a 23-man game these days and the Wallabies bench was for the most part found wanting, which was disappointing given they had available some fairly experienced players themselves.
It did smack a little as if the Wallabies ran out of puff after Jean de Villiers’ first try. I don’t believe that was due to fitness and I don’t like to accuse a team of throwing in the towel, but I felt the sting had disappeared from the Wallabies defensively at that point. Certainly, mental toughness was lacking in the final ten minutes, which was disappointing considering the first 70.
Brett: It’s probably ‘all of the above’, but I’d put physical fitness at the bottom of that list. These guys are fit; they have to be to play at this level so deep into the season, but physical fatigue was certainly an issue in the game in Cape Town. And that’s not surprising when most of the forwards made 15+ tackles each.
Mental toughness and mental awareness can all be questioned, but I think this fade out was a classic case of the body being unable to go where the mind was pushing it. I don’t think there was any ‘departure from the contest’, or anything, even though it might’ve appeared that way.
The bench impact, or lack thereof, is still concerning though, and I don’t know how you turn that around in a week where you’ve spent two days in transit and now dealing with a potentially distracting off-field issue.
The tips for TRC Round 5
Brett: #RSAvNZL – It’s just hard to see how the ‘Boks can topple the All Black juggernaut, especially after they took as long as they did to over-run the Wallabies. New Zealand by 10, for mine.
#ARGvAUS – I’ve had the benefit of seeing the Wallabies team named before writing this, and now that Kurtley Beale has been left out one way or another, this is the chance for the team to prove they can move on in spite of what’s gone on. The 6-2 bench split makes sense to me, and is also a fair indication where the Wallabies think the game will be won and lost. Australia by 8.
Digger: #RSAvNZL – All Blacks, no rhyme or reason, just because.
#ARGvAUS – Very interested to see how the Wallabies respond after the disappointment at Newlands, and how the Pumas perform given historically they have faded away towards the end of the tournament. I suspect the Wallabies will pull through in the end.
Biltong: #RSAvNZL – Regardless of the ball-in-hand approach the Springboks showed at Newlands, there were signs that Francois Louw and Willem Alberts were missed. Australia competed very well at the breakdowns, and if Alberts and Louw played their jobs would have been tougher.
South Africa might be without Duane Vermeulen as well this weekend. Comparing Louw, Alberts, and Vermeulen to a potential Marcel Coetzee, ‘Ouja’ Mohoje, and Schalk Burger combination does not compare favourably for the Boks. You are comparing bruisers and ground workers with a bit more speed and fair, but little pilfering ability, and the All Blacks will find dominating the breakdowns much easier.
It hurts to say this, but All Blacks by 14.
#ARGvAUS – Argentina has a similar challenge this coming weekend, in that their first choice backrow is unavailable. The new-look backrow will be a bit of an unknown factor.
Some have questioned the Wallaby fatigue factor, but Argentina have historically faded in their final matches. Argentina will also be without Marcello Bosch and in total, and Daniel Hourcade has made five changes to this side. His thinking is to replace some of the fatigued players for their final match.
I would love to see an Argentinean win, but for me the Wallabies will be motivated enough and win by 14.