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Some encouraging numbers and stats coming out of the NRC

The New South Wales Country Eagles and Sydney Stars will merge for the 2016 National Rugby Championship. (Karen Watson Photography)
Expert
6th October, 2014
88
2018 Reads

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that it was my perception that NRC games were actually producing more scrum and lineout set pieces than Super Rugby.

I’d also written in comment posts since then that short of wearing out a TV remote and a mouse to pause and replay every NRC set piece, this perception was something that couldn’t be verified or quantified very easily.

Late last week, almost as if their ears where burning, the ARU released their Mid Competition Statistical Review, an analysis of scoring and game trends in the new competition up to the completion of Round 6.

A busy personal schedule coupled with The Roar launching the flash new mobile site meant that we weren’t able to do anything with this analysis on its release. However, the information included is still worth sharing, and I really don’t want to write another frustrated article about the Wallabies!

Unless I’ve stated otherwise, the figures and averages quoted do not include the four matches in Round 7, completed with NSW Country’s 26-24 win over the Sydney Stars at Leichhardt Oval.

Set piece
In the opening rounds of the NRC, and with it raining tries compared to what Australian rugby fans have become used to at this time of year, one of the criticisms of the new competition was that this wasn’t going to develop set-piece technicians within young Australian forwards.

The focus on attack prompted the belief that it would be difficult for forwards to make the transition from NRC to Super Rugby and beyond, because of the increased importance of the set piece at the higher levels.

Having watched more of the NRC than many of those making this suggestion – not necessarily their fault that they hadn’t seen as many games, to be fair – and knowing how set piece was already emerging as an important attacking element, this is where my perception of more lineouts and scrums stemmed from.

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And it turns out I was right. The ARU’s report stated the following information around the set piece, to the end of Round 6:

  • An average of 24 scrums per NRC match; 17.4 per Super Rugby match on average
  • An average of 31 lineouts per NRC match; 26.2 per Super Rugby match on average

The surprise in these figures is not that there have been more set pieces in the NRC, but that the increase on the Super Rugby average is as large as it is.

We’ve already seen that many a club rugby prop has been brought undone at scrum time at the hands of Super Rugby counterparts, and that the requirement for much improved scrummaging technique even at the NRC level is patently obvious.

The early criticism is right in one regard; the transition from NRC to Super Rugby certainly will be difficult for young props, but it’s actually because their scrummaging technique is being horribly exposed already at this level, not because there isn’t enough set piece play in NRC games.

The same applies for the lineout, too, where clean ball into rolling mauls has become the preferred method of attack from penalties. Defending teams also seem more willing to contest opposition throws in their own half, however, hoping to catch out an errant throw and receive an easy exit out of danger.

The increase in contests then places more importance on throwing accuracy and timing, as well as making the right calls, executing lifts, and clean reception. That sounds like actual lineout improvement to me.

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The ARU report makes this very pertinent and accurate observation:

The high number of set piece occurrences ensures players at this important development level are practising set piece and appreciating the importance of set piece (technically and tactically) and developing a skill set so important at higher levels of the game (Super Rugby and Test matches). The competition-leading Melbourne Rising has displayed one of the dominant scrums and lineouts in the competition which has laid the foundation for their try scoring capability.

Penalties and yellow cards
The reduction in the value of penalty goals, from three points to two, has certainly had the desired effect, with only 12 penalty goals attempted in the seven rounds to date, and only eight of them successful.

My concern though, was that the reduction in the value of penalties might actually lead to more penalties. And this has proven to be the case, with the report stating:

  • An average of 25 penalties per NRC match; 18.83 per Super Rugby match on average
  • An average of 2.1 free kicks per NRC match; 1.09 per Super Rugby match on average
  • An average 1.6 yellow cards per NRC match; 0.88 per Super Rugby match on average

The last dot point there is the important one, and happily, NRC referees are cracking down on teams operating on the wrong side of the laws.

In the three Round 7 games I was able to see, there were nine yellow cards handed out, with four of them coming from Angus Gardner in the Stars versus Country game alone, and all of them in the first half.

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So teams are looking to score more tries, which we already knew, but defending teams looking to cynically stop them are being punished.

This might just be the biggest success of the competition, and teams and fans are being rewarded as a result, with ball-in-play times regularly pushing 40 minutes per game.

Other points and observations
Some other tidbits and stats updated from my own records, and including the four games in Round 7:

  • As at the completion of Round 7, we’ve had 242 tries scored in 28 games. This represents an average of 8.6 tries per game, which has dropped a little in the last few rounds. It had been running at around nine tries per game. In context, Super Rugby matches this year averaged around 48 points and less than five tries per game. New Zealand’s ITM Cup and South Africa’s Currie Cup average around 55 and 53 points per game, respectively, but when recalculated for the change in points for goal-kicking, the NRC is on par with both competitions.
  • Crowds are hovering around that 2000 per game figure that has been the mark throughout the competition. Brisbane City’s “over 5000” figure for the City-Country grudge match at Ballymore remains the high water mark, while the Sydney Stars’ 1005 crowd against Melbourne in Round 2 is the smallest to date.
  • TV ratings are a bit harder to come by. My understanding from discussions with some Fox Sports people is that there have been some good games and some bad games in terms of ratings. All that can be reported, however, is that none of the seven Thursday night games have made the Top 20 Foxtel programs the night they were played, and that the 20th program has rated around 40,000 viewers. I’ve also been told by separate sources that the NRC game both has and hasn’t increased the ratings for RugbyHQ, which was one of the reasons given for playing the TV game on Thursday nights.

One piece of good news around the coverage of the new competition is that live streams are becoming more commonplace, along with last week’s announcement from Fox Sports that they will now cover the Brisbane City versus Canberra match on Saturday October 18, the curtain-raiser for the third Bledisloe Test.

Criticism of the NRC now has slowly wilted to the point where it’s really only about off-field issues, and mainly around marketing and promotion at the competition level; criticism that’s very hard to argue.

I had breakfast in Sydney on Saturday morning with friends who are fans of rugby, but they knew very little about the NRC.

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Like many of us suspected from the outset, the product on the field has been very enjoyable, and it’s certainly filling the void of Australian rugby development. It’s just the bit that goes after fulltime and before kickoff that needs significant improvement.

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