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Last week marked 100 days until the kick off for Rugby World Cup 2015.
Though celebrating the 100-day mark seemed more a marketing ploy than anything else, it still got me thinking.
With a little over three months to go until the start of the global showpiece, aren’t things just a little quiet? Where is all the hysteria, the mind games, the fretting and debate?
Then the realisation hit me, perhaps this really is the start of the build-up proper. After all, up until now the northern hemisphere has been largely captivated with their own domestic and regional tournaments which culminated for the season with the French Top 14 final on Saturday.
In the Southern Hemisphere, the Super Rugby finals series starts next week. So perhaps up until now in 2015 it’s been the calm before the world cup storm?
With the northern hemisphere teams now heading into their training camps before embarking on a series of world cup warm up matches, and the southern hemisphere teams about to commence their own international fixtures, attention is now well and truly about to turn towards international rugby and the William Webb Ellis trophy.
There is sure to be plenty to talk about before the tournament even kicks off. Who will make the squads, who won’t, who will pick up injuries who will play up off the field?
There are so many subplots and points of discussion. Who will qualify from the group of death, will the All Blacks choke or will they become the first back to back winners, will a Pacific Island side make the quarter finals and which French side will turn up?
These are just a few of the long list of subplots that await us all.
Looking at the groups for the tournament the potential upsets don’t exactly scream out at you. With the exception of Samoa knocking off Scotland, which can hardly be considered an upset anyway, what are the chances of seeing a repeat of the likes of Samoa’s victories over Wales in 1991 and 1999?
What about Argentina’s victory over France in 2007, Tonga’s victory over France in 2011 and Ireland’s victory over Australia in 2011?
There have been other notable close run upsets including Wales pushing South Africa close in 2011 and Ireland doing the same to Australia in 2003, but what chances are there in this tournament? Looking at the groups, there doesn’t seem too many, although perhaps that has more to do with international sides becoming closer in recent years.
The France versus Ireland game is a prime example. Twelve years ago most punters would have considered France losing to Ireland in a group match unlikely, yet in 2015 sentiment is entirely different.
The group of death promises to be the grandest subplot of them all in the early stages of the tournament, with either England or Australia possibly facing their first exit at that stage of the tournament in their world cup history.
Wales, who have failed to make the knock-out stages of the tournament three times, in 1991, 1995 and 2007, will be desperate not to make it four.
So much rides on this pool, the winner likely going on to face either Samoa or Scotland and the runner up likely to face South Africa. Ouch.
And of course it would be amiss not to mention Fiji in all of this, a side who knocked Wales out in 2007 at the same stage, one has to feel that they will play a part in deciding which of the two sides will progress.
How will England cope with the home pressure and how will the squad cope with the media attention they will no doubt encounter? One slip up is all it takes and in this day and age with mobile phones capturing every possible detail. The British tabloids will be circling like hawks, waiting for that inevitable slip up to happen before feasting on it in the press.
Ireland are being talked about as possible winners for the first time in their history, how will this pressure affect them as a squad? Will they thrive or will they implode like they did in 2007?
One suspects that the group match between France and Ireland will rival the importance of the group of death match ups with the winner of that fixture likely to miss the All Blacks in the quarter final.
Which leads us to the All Blacks themselves, a side who have lost just twice since they were crowned champions in 2011.
Will they live up to the chokers tag or instead will they become the first side to defend their title? If it is the latter then surely the door must be slammed closed on any argument as to whether they are the greatest side in history.
What an occasion a quarter final against France in Cardiff would be, although one has to suspect most New Zealanders themselves may think otherwise.
And then there is the Springboks. In some ways it feels like South Africa are flying under the radar as conversation focuses more on a number of their opponents. This is a great position for them to be in and dangerous for their rivals and although this isn’t one of the greater Springbok sides in history, they are made for knock-out rugby. They will be there or thereabouts come the business end of the tournament, they are absolutely one of the favourites.
And finally the thing all sides fear more than anything else. Injuries. There will be plenty, both before and during the tournament, and these will play a huge part in the outcome of the tournament.
And there it is, less than 100 days to go, the storm is brewing…
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.