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There are just seven rounds remaining in the regular season and the race for the finals is starting to heat up, as well as the battles to claim a coveted double chance in the finals, and avoid the wooden spoon.
This analysis will be divided into two parts. This part will preview the teams currently in the eight, part two will look at the teams outside of it.
Here’s a look at the current top eight and a prediction of where they will finish by the end of the season.
Fremantle
Currently first (13 wins, 2 losses, 52 competition points, 128.4%)
Matches to play: Richmond (MCG), GWS Giants (DS), St Kilda (ES), West Coast Eagles (DS), North Melbourne (ES), Melbourne (DS), Port Adelaide (Oval)
Following a patchy period book-ended by losses to Richmond and Hawthorn, the Dockers returned to form on the weekend, defeating Carlton by 42 points to retain their place on top of the ladder.
Their premiership credentials will be tested in the next month. They are set to face Richmond at the MCG, the GWS Giants at home and the West Coast Eagles at home.
The game against the Giants, who have never enjoyed playing in Perth since entering the AFL in 2012, should deliver a significant percentage boost, while the Round 20 derby against the Eagles could potentially decide the minor premiership.
Predicted finish: first.
West Coast Eagles
Currently second (12 wins, 3 losses, 48 competition points, 156.5%)
Matches to play: Sydney Swans (DS), Gold Coast Suns (MS), Hawthorn (DS), Fremantle (DS), Western Bulldogs (DS), Adelaide Crows (Oval), St Kilda (DS)
They were written off at the start of the season due to injuries and retirements to key players, but the Eagles have emerged as the surprise packets of the season, shooting their way up to second on the ladder in Adam Simpson’s second year as coach of the club.
As easy as their run home may look on paper, their two home matches against the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn on either side of a trip to the Gold Coast will test where they are really at as a club.
The Eagles haven’t beaten the Swans anywhere since Chris Judd and Ben Cousins left the club at the end of 2007, while the Hawks have returned to their red-hot best following an unusually slow start to the season.
Adam Simpson’s men beating the two different premiers will go a long way towards securing the Eagle’s first top two finish since they last won the premiership in 2006.
Predicted finish: second.
Hawthorn
Currently third (11 wins, 4 losses, 44 competition points, 159.3%)
Matches to play: Carlton (ES), Richmond (MCG), West Coast Eagles (DS), Geelong Cats (MCG), Port Adelaide (ES), Brisbane Lions (AS), Carlton (MCG)
After a slow start to the season, Hawthorn have rediscovered the form which has taken them to the last two premierships, winning their last seven en route to third position on the ladder.
Their past fortnight couldn’t have seen them perform any better than they did when they demolished Fremantle and the Sydney Swans by a combined margin of 161 points.
Their next two matches, against Carlton and Richmond, will provide the perfect warm-up for what is expected to be a finals preview when they travel to Perth to face the West Coast Eagles in Round 19.
The Eagles match aside, their run home, which is book-ended by matches against Carlton, will see them face Richmond, arch-rivals Geelong and Port Adelaide all in Victoria, as well as the Brisbane Lions in Launceston.
But will it be enough for them to prevent an all-Western Australia 1-2 at the top of the ladder? I predict not.
Predicted finish: third.
Sydney Swans
Currently fourth (11 wins, 4 losses, 44 competition points, 118.3%)
Matches to play: West Coast Eagles (DS), Adelaide Crows (SCG), Geelong Cats (SS), Collingwood (SCG), GWS Giants (SPO), St Kilda (ES), Gold Coast Suns (SCG)
The Sydney Swans’ premiership hopes took a massive hit last Saturday night when they copped an 89-point humiliation at the hands of Hawthorn, marking their worst marginal defeat since 1998.
In addition, Ted Richards, Craig Bird and Kurt Tippett are all in doubt with suspension and injuries respectively, and that is the last thing they would want ahead of the trip west where the second-placed Eagles await.
Although the Swans have won their last eight meetings against the Eagles dating back to 2008, it’s almost certain they will head in as underdogs as the two clubs look to revive a rivalry which saw them share a flag each in 2005 and 2006.
That is then followed by a six-day break before they face the Adelaide Crows at home in Round 18. Tricky matches against the Geelong Cats, Collingwood Magpies and the GWS Giants, as well as winnable matches against St Kilda and the Gold Coast Suns highlight their run home to September.
Despite their recent patchy form, I still think the Swans will do enough to secure a top four finish for the fourth consecutive year.
However, their poor showing against the Hawks could come back to haunt them in any of their seven remainders.
Predicted finish: fourth.
Richmond
Currently fifth (10 wins, 5 losses, 40 competition points, 112.7%)
Matches to play: Fremantle (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Adelaide Crows (Oval), Gold Coast Suns (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Essendon (MCG), North Melbourne (ES)
After another slow start to the season, Richmond have gone 8-1 over the last ten weeks, with the only loss coming against the second-placed West Coast Eagles at home in Round 12.
The run home will test their finals credentials, with top four sides Fremantle and Hawthorn to come in the next fortnight, followed by another trip to Adelaide to face the Crows in Friday night prime-time.
The trip to South Australia aside, their other six remainders are all in Melbourne, with all but one of them at the MCG.
Thus, while the Tigers are in prime position to reach the finals for the third consecutive year, actually winning a final will be their goal this September.
Predicted finish: fifth.
Western Bulldogs
Currently sixth (9 wins, 6 losses, 36 competition points, 105.8%)
Matches to play: Collingwood (ES), Essendon (ES), Port Adelaide (ES), Melbourne (ES), West Coast Eagles (DS), North Melbourne (ES), Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
On paper, the Western Bulldogs have the best possible run home, with five of their next six matches at Etihad Stadium, and only one top-eight side in between.
This puts them in a good position to return to the finals for the first time since 2010.
Their next four matches are not only against sides currently outside of the eight, but are all under the Docklands roof. That is then followed by their biggest test yet when they travel to Perth to face the West Coast Eagles in Round 21.
The club has emerged as a finals contender under new coach Luke Beveridge this year following a well-documented off-season from hell during which they lost their coach, captain, CEO and over 700 games of experience.
To make the finals with the depleted but otherwise talented playing list that survived the events of nine months ago would be a huge achievement, and the sky is the limit for the Bulldogs.
Predicted finish: sixth.
Greater Western Sydney Giants
Currently seventh (9 wins, 6 losses, 36 competition points, 104.1%)
Matches to play: Geelong Cats (STO), Fremantle (DS), Essendon (SPO), Port Adelaide (Oval), Carlton (SPO), Melbourne (ES)
After losing Shane Mumford, Phil Davis and Joel Patfull to serious injuries against Collingwood in Round 11, many were prepared to write off the GWS Giants’ chances of featuring in September for the first time.
However, unlike the Gold Coast Suns last year who struggled after their captain Gary Ablett Jr. went down with a serious shoulder injury this time last season, the Giants have been able to lift without their three most important players, defeating St Kilda and the Suns in their past two matches.
The club’s free-to-air exile will end this Saturday when they face the Geelong Cats in Canberra this Saturday.
They will also enjoy free-to-air home matches against Essendon and Carlton in Rounds 19 and 22 respectively.
A pair of winnable matches against Carlton and Melbourne to finish iff the regular season should prove the perfect springboard into their first ever finals appearance, which would mark the next major milestone for the club.
The Giants have won nine matches this season, the same amount as their last three years combined.
Predicted finish: seventh.
Adelaide Crows
Currently eighth (8 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw*, 34 competition points, 103.1%)
Matches to play: Gold Coast Suns (Oval), Sydney Swans (SCG), Richmond (Oval), Essendon (ES), Brisbane Lions (Oval), West Coast Eagles (Oval), Geelong Cats (SS)
* – the Round 14 match against the Geelong Cats was cancelled in the wake of Phil Walsh’s death
With the hardest and most emotional two weeks in the Adelaide Crows’ history well and truly behind them, the club can now switch their focus back to returning to the finals for the first time since 2012.
Their gutsy three-point victory over cross-town rivals Port Adelaide has seen them climb back into the eight at the expense of Collingwood, and revives their finals hopes which temporarily took a hit following the tragic events of July the third, in which their coach Phil Walsh was allegedly murdered by his own son.
Caretaker coach Scott Camporeale must now guide the Crows through the final seven rounds of the season without allowing the Phil Walsh tragedy to revisit the players’ mindsets.
Their run home will see them face top-eight sides the Sydney Swans, Richmond and the West Coast Eagles, as well as the Geelong Cats in Geelong in the final round.
They will also enjoy winnable home matches against the two Queensland sides, as well as a match against Essendon at Etihad Stadium in Round 20.
That will provide the platform towards what the club and their fans hope will be their first appearance in September since 2012, but just their second since 2009.
Whether the Crows can make the transition from tragedy into a potential triumph will be the big question throughout the final seven rounds of the season.
Predicted finish: eighth
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