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The Wallabies thoroughly deserved their victory on Saturday night, there is no doubting it.
They outplayed the All Blacks and are worthy Rugby Championship winners. In doing so, they have also emerged as serious world cup contenders – provided they can get out of their pool of course.
And if your read David Lord’s articles, which I generally don’t, they are also about to break the Eden Park hoodoo this weekend and win back the Bledisloe – a bold statement if ever there was one.
Isn’t it fascinating to watch how moods and belief can change so quickly. The Wallabies notch their first win in four years over the All Blacks, and all of a sudden there is a serious spring back in the step of Wallaby rugby.
I seem to recall a similar spring at the exact same moment last year, the Wallabies had drawn with the All Blacks in Sydney, and headed to Eden Park to end the infamous hoodoo.
Well we all know what happened from there.
I do sense that this Wallaby team is different though. They have a better coach, a more balanced side and with David Pocock back and playing some sublime rugby, they are a dangerous beast again.
Continuing on the theme of rugby moods and beliefs, no nation can rival New Zealand when it comes to a collective nation’s morale being influenced by events on a rugby field. As the old saying goes, when the All Blacks lose, New Zealand GDP falls. New Zealand’s population put their wallets away and focus on recovering from their state of depression.
One loss and all of a sudden the alarm bells are ringing and the All Blacks are no longer the side they once were. Let’s be honest here, yes the All Blacks have made a habit of winning in the last ten minutes, but a number of those games could have gone the other way during the past 12 months.
The All Blacks have certainly been ahead of the pack but it hasn’t been as far as what a lot of people let themselves believe.
However no one needs to be reminded that when the All Blacks backs are to the wall, like they are now, a huge statement is usually delivered. I expect to see a big performance on Saturday which should culminate in the Bledisloe Cup staying in New Zealand shores for another year.
If there are any lessons that need to be learned over the past 28 years however it is that none of this counts for anything come October. The Rugby World Cup is something different altogether.
You can be the best team in the world leading up to a tournament only to have it all come unstuck in 80 minutes of knock-out rugby – think New Zealand in 2007.
Provided you qualify for the quarter finals, what happens in pool play is an irrelevance also. Look at England in 2007, who took an absolute hammering from South Africa in pool play before very nearly winning the final, ditto France in 2011.
Sure, none of these sides won, but at some point a side that finishes runner up in their pool will win the tournament. Could the pool of death this year be that moment?
So although form is a big factor and undoubtedly sides would rather head into the tournament with momentum, in a single knock-out game, what has happened before is nothing more than a complete irrelevance.
So before we all get too carried away, whether we a fans of the All Blacks, Wallabies or merely a neutral, let’s keep it all in perspective and realise that last Saturday’s result means nothing on this Saturday’s – and certainly nothing on the Rugby World Cup.
What this weekend does promise is an explosive Test match with the Bledisloe Cup on the line.
There are many subplots. The King himself Richie McCaw becoming the highest cap holder in international rugby history, the rise of the Aussie scrum, how the All Blacks will handle the twin presence of Michael Hooper and David Pocock and whether perhaps the All Blacks dad’s army have reached their last post.
The latter point is a fascinating one. There are certainly a number of the older brigade who find themselves under serious pressure. It is not often Carter has played so poorly in his career and he alone has taken much of the brunt of the criticism this week.
His old mate Conrad Smith must surely be feeling some pressure too, a great servant in the number 13 jersey during the past decade but a player for whom I can’t recall his last line break.
I would still have him there, but I get sick of hearing people say how he marshals the defence. In his peak Smith was much more than just a defensive leader, he was a fantastic line breaker and he needs to show he can still offer this.
The introduction of Ma’a Nonu back into the mix this weekend should help the All Black midfield. This takes me to my final point. What to do about Sonny Bill Williams?
To me, Sonny Bill Williams is a league forward playing rugby in the backs. He is an exceptional talent and can dominate teams when he is given time and space.
However, against the top nations, when defences rush up and are in his face, he simply doesn’t have the rugby brain to know what to do and becomes a liability.
He doesn’t have the nous to make a split second decision. I also can’t quite work out why we seem to hear Hansen coming out and defending Williams or singing his praise constantly. We don’t see Hansen doing that with other players, so is this a matter of the coach pampering an individual? I certainly hope not.
So for Saturday at least, let’s forget the Rugby World Cup and enjoy what promises to be an enthralling Test match. The Bledisloe is on the line, but nothing more.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.