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While it has been amusing reading the click-bait headlines bagging the Wallabies’ performance against the All Blacks, anyone who bothered to read the team sheets prior to the game knew the result beforehand.
Losing to the All Blacks’ first-choice side in New Zealand with what, for all intents and purposes, was a trial team should not be cause for concern for Michael Cheika.
So where do the teams stand after this weekend?
Australia
Forwards have come to the party
The Wallabies can scrum! This fact alone should almost guarantee a semi-final appearance (bearing in mind that that Wallabies made it to the penultimate round last World Cup without as solid a set-piece).
If Cheika can maintain this upward trend in forward play, Australia’s claim on ‘Bill’ looks a lot less tenuous.
‘Double fetcher starting’ should be penned to the team roster
Why follow conventional wisdom when you have players of Michael Hooper and David Pocock quality? When these two players started in tandem, the Wallabies won. Start them for all the big matches!
Cheika needs to consider dropping back another forward to help defend in the deep like a traditional 8 would do (since Pocock will be playing to the ball).
The flyhalf order has been solidified
Despite comments from Quade Cooper and Cheika’s support of his player, the pecking order for the 10 jersey has surely been settled: first Matt Toomua, second Matt Giteau, third Bernard Foley. Giteau should start at 12 and move to 10 if there’s an injury to Toomua.
Kurtley Beale impressed me with his hard-shouldered approach to defence this weekend past. Seems the competition for spots has focussed him up somewhat. My only concern is Giteau and and Beale play a similar style of playmaker i.e. use of lateral movement to create space for outside players. With this type of play, the team requires a player to straighten the line, which is why I feel Toomua is a vital cog in the Wallabies’ best backline.
Giteau and Beale at 10 and 12 could be disastrous. Perhaps move Adam Ashley-Cooper into 12 and have Beale roam as a playmaker wing in the mould of David Campese? Not entirely sold on this idea though.
Kuridrani still MIA
I can’t remember the commentators mentioning Tevita Kuridrani in attack in either game against the All Blacks. Such a hard-running player with the ability to buckle defensive lines must be drawn into the attack more regularly.
Similarly, Israel Folau’s ability to beat defenders was under-utilised.
Blame must be shared between the players themselves not running the correct lines or getting into space to receive the ball, and the inside players not finding ways of involving these runners more.
All in all, the Wallabies are in a good space at the moment. I’m anticipating a deep run at the tournament this year.
New Zealand
First choice is the same as it’s been for the last few years
I’m not the hugest fan of Ma’a Nonu, but what he brings to the table is exactly what a backline featuring the Smiths and Dan Carter require: hard, straight running when space closes quickly and a jinking long-passing distributor when the space is there for the taking.
I imagine that this year there was no serious argument on who the best 12 for the ABs is. The only debate is who will fill the no. 14 jumper. And wings have never been a problem for the ABs. Who ever they choose will do the job.
Carter is proof that form is temporary, class is permanent
After last week’s performance there was some talk of Carter not being up to scratch. I expect that rugby fans who have been here for longer than a season or two never gave such nonsense credence.
In a clutch game, you want Carter at 10 directing proceedings. One of the hallmarks of Carter’s play is his ability to shift gears seamlessly. Take for example last week: Carter shovelled the ball on all game, except when he engineered a half break that led to a Nehe Milner-Skudder try.
He’s a master of knowing what to do and when to do it for maximum effect. If fit, Carter’s the man.
The only tactic I can think of that the All Blacks are vulnerable to is a high intensity, physical onslaught from kick-off to final buzzer. Any time the Wallabies/Boks/English have beaten the All Blacks it’s through blitzing them early on and having an ‘in your face’, suffocating defence.
Trying to rattle the All Blacks and breaking their composure is the only way to beat them – and even then, it has a 50/50 chance of success.
South Africa
The Boks are their own worst enemies
The Springboks have the cattle to be world-beaters, but are lacking mentally.
Losing two games in the final 10 minutes and getting blitzed by the Pumas at home indicates a tendency towards fatal lapses in concentration, along with a lack of mental fortitude to steel themselves to a game chase.
Jean de Villiers’ comments after the loss to the Pumas were telling in this regard where he mentioned that the team would have to work on the mental aspects of the game.
Trouble is, a champion mentality is not developed overnight, it’s cultivated over years. This World Cup may be too soon for the Boks.
Handre Pollard is a bench player for this campaign
Currently, Pat Lambie gets more from the players outside. In fact, Pollard should never have been rushed into starting for the Boks on the back of a successful under 20 World Cup and a season or two at the Bulls.
Consider how the All Blacks mentor their up-and-coming stars. Two seasons to prove themselves at franchise level, then understudy to the incumbent for a season or so, getting 20 minutes off the bench. Then the starting berth.
Getting dropped into first choice has ruined more than one Bok player (Derick Hougaard and Gaffie du Toit spring to mind). Pollard should be slowly gaining experience and developing his game instead of worrying about how he’s going to carry the team to a win.
Lambie has 49 caps to his name and (limited) experience at a previous World Cup – it’s a no-brainer he should start at 10.
Kirchner vs Willie
I personally would pick the plodding Zane Kirchner over Willie le Roux for the World Cup. Yes, Willie is a much more exciting, creative option but his conversion rate is too low for knockout rugby. Kirchner handles the core duties of a fullback solidly. Catch the high balls, clear his lines, run at defenders. I’ve seen him beat only two players with a step in his entire career, but he brings stability in a vital position.
Willie could be included on the bench to cover wing and fullback if so required. Heyneke Meyer should not stifle Willie’s creativity, but work on improving his option-taking and increasing his success ratio.
Argentina
Juan-martin Hernandez must start at 10
Compared to Nicolás Sanchez, Hernandez seems to have more time at his disposal when distributing. He’s more experienced and I rate his skill-set more highly.
I’ve seen suggestions from Argentine Roarers for a Sanchez-Hernandez 10-12 pairing. If this is to work, Hernandez must rotate into 10 every few phases to make the big plays Argentina need to punish opponents.
More of the same
Last weekend’s game against the Boks in Buenos Aires turned on a single moment early on. If Eben Etzebeth had not put in a try-saving tackle, the Pumas would have stunned the Boks to record a historic second win on the trot against their more fancied opponents.
If they can maintain the passion, skill and the verve with which they play the game, the Pumas are set for another deep run in a RWC and I look forward to them breaking northern hemisphere hearts.
The Southern Hemisphere have a pack of strong contenders (I include Samoa and Fiji here) this World Cup. I cannot wait for it to get started!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.