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The toss at the Oval on Thursday is crucial and will point to the current temperament and character of both captains.
Logic says win the toss and bat, but with overcast conditions and some humidity about will Alastair Cook be tempted to put the embattled Australians in if he wins?
Alternatively will Michael Clarke, in his last hurrah, consider protecting his fragile middle order (and himself) and hope his tired bowlers can wield some magic if he wins?
Or will he take the true and tested method of trying to get runs on the board? Cricket logic and the baggy green way say he should.
The Oval is usually a place for runs, in five first-class games this season 5245 runs have been scored at 38 runs per wicket. But there is only a marginal difference between batting first or second.
In fact the average for second innings scores is slightly higher at 404 compared to 373. This could be a clincher for Cook, especially if the overcast conditions come as predicted.
My guess is that Cook, with his newly found aggressive mojo, will insert the Aussies if he wins. What does he have to lose? Certainly not the series, and his batsman may still get the better of conditions on Friday and Saturday even if the Aussies are able to build a score.
This surely creates a conundrum for the departing Clarke.
In true Aussie nature there may be part of him that wants to take England on and bat first, not least to show he is leading from the front in his last Test.
But it could be that his fighting spirits have gone and ‘Pup’ the Street Fighter is no more.
If I was placing bets I suspect Clarke will want to protect himself and his fragile line-up against Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad.
He will desperately want runs in his last Test as part of his legacy. A legacy that is a good one but still coloured by his polarising character it would seem.
On that basis he may well take the selfish path and bat second so he can best protect his legacy, with the hope of scoring a big one and proving to a doubting Aussie public they really should have loved him more.
Either way, it will be interesting to see who zigs and who zags when the coin drops. Of course all bets may be off if the sun is shining.
But if it is overcast and Clarke wins and bats, it may show he is really a baggy green believer, but if he wins and bowls his egoism may have got the better of him.
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