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Can Carlton cure themselves of their self-inflicted Blues?

Roar Pro
16th September, 2015
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1183 Reads

Although it’s now a mere memory, it was not that long ago that Carlton were the most successful and powerful club in the AFL.

At the end of this month it will be 20 years since Carlton defeated Geelong in front of over 90,000 people at the MCG to claim their 15th VFL/AFL premiership – the most by any club at that time.

In the 20 years previous to that 1995 success, the Blues had won four premierships, been runners-up twice, and featured in an impressive 16 finals series.

Carlton were also the only club to have competed in both the VFL and AFL to have never had the dubious honour of winning the wooden spoon – a fact quickly seized upon by Blues supporters of the past whenever the argument came up about who the most successful side was when Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood all had 14 premierships to their name.

However in the 20 years since, Carlton have gone from being an AFL powerhouse to almost irrelevant to all but their supporters.

Since their last grand final appearance, against North Melbourne in 1999, Carlton have played in only five finals series – and one of those was through default, when Essendon were relegated to ninth place as punishment over governance issues during the supplements saga.

Three years after they lost that grand final to the Kangaroos they collected their first wooden spoon, and have added another three since, including one this season.

As is the way with Carlton, the lack of success has been consistently laid firmly at the feet of whichever senior coach happened to be in charge at the time, and they have been duly terminated.

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The recently appointed Brendon Bolton will be the sixth senior coach at the Blues since Wayne Brittain in 2001, and the third in 2015 alone.

Indeed, in the current climate it is hard to decide which job is less secure – the senior coaching position at Carlton, or the Prime Ministership of Australia.

However the problem at Carlton is not the coach, and never really has been. It is those in positions at the highest levels of the club who refuse to adapt to the times.

The hierarchy at Carlton appear not unlike the nobility of an old colonial superpower, holding on to that feeling of superiority even though the rest of the world has long since passed them by.

When the AFL brought in a draft and a salary cap (and actually policed it), it meant that premierships could no longer just be bought, they had to be earned.

Carlton, for so long unused to competing on an even playing field, attempted to circumnavigate the salary cap through third-party payments to some of their players, and in 2002 were found guilty of breaching the cap.

Although no individuals were found guilty, the Carlton Football Club stated at the time that the only people who knew about the breaches were club president John Elliott, and directors Wes Lofts, Kevin Hall and Barry Stone.

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As punishment, the club was fined almost $1 million and stripped of selections in the 2002 national draft, and 2003 preseason and national drafts.

As they were to do again a decade later, Carlton must have vastly overestimated the talent on their list, as although they had been caught breaching the salary cap, the Blues finished last for the first time in their history. The board’s reaction was of course to sack coach Brittain, despite him being contracted for the following year.

His replacement, Dennis Pagan, had been the opposition coach in Carlton’s last grand final appearance only three years earlier, and had led North Melbourne to eight consecutive finals series and two premierships during the nineties.

Given the circumstances, Pagan had little chance of success. Although he attempted to renew Carlton’s list through recycled players, and did win a preseason grand final in 2005, the Blues’ highest finish under Pagan in the regular season was 11th in 2004.

Although 2005 started off well with the win in the Wizard Cup, Carlton collected their second wooden spoon later in the year, and another the following season.

Despite extending his contract until 2008, after five consecutive defeats midway through the 2007 season Pagan was sacked, and replaced by assistant coach and former captain Brett Ratten.

When he arrived at Carlton, Pagan had a winning record of 62.5 per cent from 240 games. During his almost five years at the Blues he won only 25 out of 104 games, with two draws, and his overall winning record plummeted to 50 per cent.

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When asked if his move to Carlton had been a disaster on Fox Footy’s Open Mike, he described that as “the biggest understatement of all time”.

Ratten took the Blues to seventh in 2009, ending the longest absence from finals in the club’s history.

Carlton finished eighth the following year, and although they were eliminated in their first final for the second consecutive year, Ratten’s contract was extended until 2013.

In 2011 Ratten took them to fifth place and the Blues won their elimination final against Essendon by 62 points. The following week they only narrowly missed out on a preliminary final berth, losing to West Coast in Perth by three points.

Expecting nothing less than a top-four finish in 2012, when Carlton finally dropped out of finals contention in the penultimate round of the season after a loss to Gold Coast, the club once again announced they were getting rid of their coach. And, as was the case with both Pagan and Brittain, with a year still to run on his contract.

Unlike Pagan and Brittain however, who had been sacked after claiming the club’s only wooden spoons up until that time, Ratten had taken the club forward, and the players appeared to enjoy playing under him.

At the time, and even more so in hindsight, it seemed a harsh and questionable decision.

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However, as they had done a decade previously, those in power at Carlton overestimated the talent of their list, believing all they needed was an experienced and successful coach and everything else would fall into place.

Enter Mick Malthouse, who had declined to take up a director of coaching position at Collingwood when Nathan Buckley took over as coach. Despite stating only 12 months previously he could never coach against the Collingwood players, Malthouse signed on as the new Carlton coach in the worst-kept secret of the season.

Malthouse’s signing was an unmitigated disaster for all concerned, arguably even more so than Pagan. At least when told his services were no longer required Pagan went as amicably as could be expected under the circumstances. That was never going to be the case with Malthouse.

After slipping into the finals in his first year at the helm, courtesy of Essendon’s disqualification, the Blues finished 13th in 2014.

Three games into this season with no wins to their name, speculation began to mount that it was only a matter of time before Malthouse was given his marching orders.

That speculation increased after Collingwood demolished a lacklustre Carlton by 75 points in Malthouse’s record-breaking game as a VFL/AFL coach.

Although club bosses came out publicly to state that he was safe at least until the end of the season, it did little to quell the mounting speculation.

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Three weeks later, after consecutive losses to Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney and Geelong, and only hours after criticising the club’s administration in a radio interview, Malthouse was sacked, and assistant Jon Barker named interim coach.

While Malthouse’s exit was far messier than that of Pagan, his time at Carlton did not affect his winning percentage as a coach quite as much. Before Malthouse signed on with the Blues, his winning percentage over 595 games was 58.3 per cent. After 54 games at Princes Park it had dropped to 56.5 per cent.

What the Carlton hierarchy seem unable to comprehend is that a coach is only as good as the players under him, and the simple fact is the Blues have rarely in the last 15 years had the talent to be consistently competitive.

Carlton’s draft record since they were stripped of selections in 2002 and 2003 has arguably been the worst in the AFL.

During that period they have had six top-10 selections in the national draft, including three first picks, which were used on current captain Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer.

Their other selections in the top 10 were Josh Kennedy, Andrew Walker and Chris Yarran.

While in hindsight it could be argued that Carlton could have ended up with better players from these selections, none could be considered bad selections at the time, and all have gone on to be good players – albeit Josh Kennedy with another club, although we will come to that later.

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However there can be no argument that besides Patrick Cripps, Carlton have failed miserably with their selections outside of the top 10.

Look at the list of any successful club in the AFL and you will find at least one genuine star selected outside of the top 10 in the national draft.

This season’s minor premiers Fremantle have arguably the best midfield in the AFL. Yet apart from Stephen Hill, who was selected at pick three in 2008, none are top 10 selections.

David Mundy, Nat Fyfe and Lachie Neale were selected at picks 19, 20 and 58 respectively, while ruckman Aaron Sandilands was taken at pick 33 in the 2001 rookie draft.

During this same period Carlton’s most successful selection outside of the top 10 currently still with the club is Dennis Armfield, who has played 125 games since being drafted with pick 46 in 2007.

Excluding selections used to promote rookies, Carlton had 24 picks in the national draft outside of the top 10 between 2003 and 2011. Yet only four of those players are still on the Blues’ list, and Armfield is the only one to have played over 100 games.

And what of those players who have parted ways with the club? It must cause much consternation among Carlton supporters to see so many of their ex-players doing so well at other clubs.

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Josh Kennedy, who was part of the trade deal that saw Chris Judd join Carlton, has won this season’s Coleman Medal, been named in the 40-man All Australian squad, and will possibly be playing in a grand final in three weeks.

Fellow All Australian squad member Eddie Betts has kicked over 50 goals in consecutive seasons for Adelaide after the Blues declined to match the Crows’ offer for the then-restricted free agent in 2013.

Only last weekend Jarrad Waite kicked five goals in North Melbourne’s elimination final win over Richmond.

Mitch Robinson has had a season to remember, tying for the Lions’ best and fairest award with Dayne Beams and Stefan Martin.

Jeff Garlett, while not as outstanding as the other four, has had a solid year with Melbourne.

The last 15 years has been the worst period in Carlton’s history. But has the club learnt from its mistakes? Can the Blues lift themselves up from the mediocrity they have produced, or will they continue on their path to irrelevance?

With the sacking of Malthouse also came the belated announcement that Carlton needed to rebuild their side, and would do so through the draft. Although perhaps a little late, the admission was positive.

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After finishing in last place this season Carlton have selections one and 19 in the national draft, although this will likely change once any compensation, and/or priority picks are taken into account.

One of those possible compensation picks could be for unrestricted free agent Kreuzer. It has been reported that the Blues would be happy to part ways with the former number one draft pick if their compensation pick is high enough – they are hoping for pick two.

There are also reports that Yarran is also up for trade if the right deal can be done, and that Richmond have expressed a strong interest in the running defender.

Carlton have also officially requested a priority pick from the AFL. If granted, it would be their fifth since 2003, and if they were able to gain a high first-round compensation pick for Kreuzer, and a first-round draft pick as trade for Yarran, it would give them five first-round selections in this year’s national draft.

The request for a priority pick was described by Herald Sun chief football writer as “shameful and shameless”, and rightly so. Since 2003 Carlton have had more priority picks than any other club with the exception of Melbourne, who have also had four.

The Carlton Football Club’s current predicament is no one’s fault but their own. They have repeatedly made the same mistakes. Why should other clubs be shunted back to accommodate a club that has continually dug its own hole by not learning from those mistakes?

There is also the fact that Carlton played in finals only three years ago, so on that basis alone their request should be denied.

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Although they may not receive their requested priority pick, the Blues could still have up to four first-round selections in this year’s draft. However, what good are high draft picks if they are not used on the right players? It is not as though Carlton has the best track record when it comes to choosing prospective players through the draft.

In preparation for this rebuild and assault on the draft, Carlton have called in club champion and former GWS list manager Stephen Silvagni. Whether this is the right move remains to be seen, but the return of a local hero is always good for moral at an ailing club, and most Carlton supporters will be rejoicing at his return.

However a glance over the Giants’ drafting history speaks little of Silvagni’s ability to put a team together.

In the first two drafts GWS were involved in – 2011 and 2012 – the Giants had 16 first-round selections. Of those, only five are regular senior players, while another four have been traded.

In 2011, despite having 11 of the first 15 selections, the Giants missed out on such players as Chad Wingard, Sam Docherty, Brandon Ellis, Elliot Yeo and Brad Hill. It is hardly a record to inspire confidence.

Even if Carlton are successful at this year’s draft, it will take at least four to five years for that success to bear fruit, and unfortunately for Blues supporters, patience has never been a virtue of the club’s hierarchy.

The two most successful clubs during this period of woe for Carlton have been Geelong and Hawthorn. Both clubs came close to parting ways with their respective coaches, Mark Thompson and Alastair Clarkson, during their early years at the helm.

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Yet both clubs decided to stick with their men, and the rewards for that perseverance is five premierships between them – six if you count the Cats’ 2011 triumph under Chris Scott in his first year after taking over from Thompson.

Given their past history, patience will be Carlton’s biggest hurdle.

For the moment they have decided that Bolton and Silvagni are the men to lead them back to success. If they are to have any chance of doing so, they must be given the appropriate time by the board.

It is said that the only certainties in life are death and taxes. However there is now a third, and that is that Brendon Bolton’s 100 per cent winning record as a coach will soon be at an end.

Hopefully his infectious smile and upbeat personality (as well as his new job), last a little longer.

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