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Two decades ago New Zealand and South Africa met in the 1995 World Cup final. It took a Joel Stransky drop goal in overtime to get the Springboks over the line.
After that game the Springboks had a record of 22 wins, three draws and 17 losses against the All Blacks. At that time they were the only team that the All Blacks did not have a winning record over, which in effect made them New Zealand’s greatest rival.
The 1995 World Cup signified the beginning of the professional era in world rugby and two decades on their overall record provides much different reading. The All Blacks won 35 of the next 48 contests and now hold a commanding 52-win, three-draw and 35-loss record against the Springboks.
Since 1995 they have met twice in the Rugby World Cup. In 1999 in the bronze medal game neither side wanted to play, which the Springboks won, and in 2003 where the All Blacks slaughtered them in the quarter-finals by 20 points.
Since winning the 2011 Rugby World Cup, New Zealand have far and away been the best side in the world. In 52 matches since, they have won 47, drawn two and lost three. They have played South Africa seven times in that period, winning six and losing just once.
The form of both sides has been contrasting. To open the tournament, New Zealand powered to a 10-point win over a very spirited Argentina, who are arguably the second best team in the tournament on form, while Japan stunned South Africa in the biggest upset in rugby.
New Zealand fumbled and bumbled their way through the remaining pool games with three mediocre performances, while South Africa, knowing another loss could see a shock pool departure, dominated their remaining three games.
The quarter-finals again showed contrasting form. The All Blacks flicked the switch against France and demolished them in an 80-minute display that would have laid waste to any side. South Africa struggled to get over an injury-depleted Wales, scoring a try in the last five minutes to escape with a four-point win.
On form, South Africa have not looked great this tournament. They lost to Japan, who showed that if you play the game at speed you can cause the Springboks major headaches. They beat Samoa, who have been disappointing this tournament, and beat Scotland and the USA, who both rested their best players. Then came the limp Wales performance.
New Zealand by contrast accounted for Argentina, who are a better side than any the Springboks have faced, and used their next three games to experiment. When the need to step things up a level was necessary, they were unbelievable against the French.
There will be two styles of play in this game. The All Blacks will want to play an up-tempo game and run the Springboks off their feet. Japan did this to great effect early in the tournament and the All Blacks have used this to wear down the Springboks previously. South Africa will look to slow down the game and try control the set piece. Their scrum has been going well and their lineout is one of the best in the world.
The coaches have two different styles. The All Blacks will look to use all their players and play an expansive game while the Springboks will look to play a 10-man game and have their wings chasing box kicks and feeding off mistakes. It’s 6-1 in Steve Hansen’s favour to date and Heyneke Meyer is a coach that many have been critical of for not having a plan B.
On form it is extremely hard not to tip the All Blacks. They have a dominant 6-1 record over the Springboks under Meyer. The Springboks have been very ordinary this year, finishing winless in the Rugby Championship and having lost to New Zealand, Australia, Argentina and Japan this year.
If the teams bring last week’s form to the game, the Springboks will not even get close to the All Blacks. With the monkey off their back after winning in 2011 and redemption over France for 2007 they are in a good place.
In 2011 they had enormous pressure to win the tournament, but this time around the pressure is not there. It’s an expectation to win the tournament this time around and injury and form wise they are in a far better place than any World Cup they have competed in.
The All Blacks will win by 15 points. It will be close in the first half, but the second half the All Blacks will shred them open.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.