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New Zealand should be clear favourites for the Rugby World Cup final. Barring one poor performance in Sydney, they have put all of the major rugby nations to the sword in the last 12 months and well and truly deserve their number one ranking.
However, the Michael Cheika-coached Wallabies have performed much better than anyone expected throughout the cup.
So have the Wallabies improved enough to beat the All Blacks at full strength?
Here are the areas of the game that I believe will dictate the outcome.
The scrum
Scrums result in three-point opportunities and territory. Both sides struggled against a very strong Puma scrum, however did well against the other nations.
Both sides will be seeking the ascendancy at scrum time and I would wager that the Wallabies feel they have the edge here – particularly if Scott Sio is fit and packing down.
The attacking gain line
Both sides, particularly the Wallabies, are going to seek to win the contacts and cross the advantage line in attack. Line speeds will be fast and the collisions will be fierce.
In Sydney, the Wallabies won the contact, however the opposite was true in Auckland. The side that comes out on top here will win front-foot ball, unlocking their backline.
How will New Zealand nullify David Pocock?
Line speed in defence
The Wallabies thrive when they employ super fast line speed in defence and are clinical in their tackling. Conversely, they struggle when this line speed is lacking.
The All Blacks know this and I would not be surprised to see some short kicking, pick and gos, as well as some crafty work from Aaron Smith at the ruck to try and lure the Wallabies offside.
The lineout maul
One of the Wallabies’ favourite weapons is the attacking maul, having scored four tries from them during the cup. Do the All Blacks plan to attack the Wallabies’ lineouts close to their line? Or are they going to try and out-maul the Wallabies?
Are the Wallabies going to be able to score or induce yellow cards here?
Aaron Smith
When Aaron Smith is at his best, the All Blacks are at their best. There is no other player in the world that can unlock a team the way Smith can.
The key to keeping him quiet is to disrupt and control the breakdown. Should the Wallabies fail to get the ascendancy here and fail to pressure Smith, they could be in for a tough afternoon.
Discipline
Discipline is absolutely paramount, particularly for the Wallabies, who will want to remain diligent, low on penalties, and highlight to referee Nigel Owens the traditional All Black tactic of killing momentum when they are deep in their own territory.
Australia will be hoping for an early warning and then a yellow card or two.
Mental edge
There is a fine line between being focused and having bloodlust, so which team is going to be better focused and prepared.
Cheika is renowned for his unusual motivational speeches, but how is Steve Hansen preparing his All Blacks? It is probably not too difficult given how many stalwarts of the team are playing their last games. How will this emotion manifest? How mentally clinical are they going to be come Saturday?
Not long now until we find out how good the Wallabies really are.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.