- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Since The Roar is now letting lawyers interpret statistics – yes blame Harry Jones – I thought I’d give it a go.
Like everyone else, except perhaps the guy who came up with ‘Moneyball’, I accept that sporting contests are decided by more than mere statistics.
There are intangibles, such as the weather, the ref, the crowd, biorythmns, mental and physical fatigue, lucky socks and the like.
Often we use in game statistics to justify past results but they don’t always match up. For instance the semi-finals last weekend told two very separate and perplexing stories.
Show me the New Zealand versus Boks stats without the score and I would’ve said the Kiwi’s probably won by 15+. On the other hand do the same for the Pumas Wallabies game and I would’ve thought the Pumas won.
Surely, with the Wallabies missing 33 tackles and the Pumas making line breaks at will, the Pumas must scored more often than an Argentinain polo player at Centennial Park. But no, those statistics did not reflect the results at all.
The Kiwis strangled a tough but ultimately unimaginative Boks team and the Wallabies outthought and outplayed a very gallant Argentinian outfit.
Now we have the final we antipodeans have been longing for. Our Kiwi brethren have, in their most humble and self effacing manner, grudgingly admitted that they probably have the team to beat the upstart Wallabies. In fact some independent observers, whose opinions I value, have suggested the Wallabies will likely lose by 12+ (I’m looking at you again Mr Jones).
I beg to differ.
My analysis is based on the following reasons.
1. NZ are an almost impossible task at Eden Park and;
2. NZ are only slightly less impossible anywhere else in NZ.
Accordingly my analysis is based on the following data.
1. Past world cup finals (discounting the thrashings of 1987 and 1999);
2. Last 10 games between Australia and New Zealand outside of NZ;
3. All games between Australia and New Zealand at neutral grounds.
Many of my Kiwi brethren across the dutch will cry foul and accuse me of churry pecking, to them I say, yes you are right but it doesn’t make the following analysis any less compelling.
Read on.
Firstly, World Cup finals are close. If you remove 1987 (NZ 29–France 9) and 1999 (Australia 35–France 12) the numbers get very interesting.
The biggest margin is 9. Two games went into extra time. The average points for is 14 and against is 9.6.
In fact if you take out extra time the average points for is 12.8 versus 9.6, that’s an average margin of 3.2.
Of the last 10 games played between Australia and New Zealand outside of fortress New Zealand, the results have been much more interesting. New Zealand 5 wins, Australia 3 wins and 2 draws. New Zealand averaged 26.8 points across those ten games and Australia averaged 23.4 despite two heavy losses (2010 Melbourne 49-28 and 2013 Sydney 47–29).
Now, correct me if I’m wrong, but those pesky Kiwis are starting to look positively human away from home.
A 50 per cent loss record to New Zealand would be the envy of every other team in world rugby. But hey the Wallabies still only have a 37.5 per cent win record against New Zealand in those games. Yep agreed, but there’s more my friends.
Since the 2011 Cup the Kiwis have lost 3 games and drawn 2. One of those losses and both of those draws were against the Wallabies.
So 60 per cent per cent of the time when New Zealand don’t win, Australia are responsible for it.
Let me say that again “60 per cent of the time the Kiwis don’t win it’s because of the Wallabies”.
What about neutral venues? I’m so glad you asked:
1991 World Cup semi, Ireland: Australia 16, New Zealand 6
2008 Hong Kong: New Zealand 19, Australia 14
2009 Tokyo: New Zealand 32, Australia 19
2010 Hong Kong: Australia 26, New Zealand 24
The neutral venue is a great advantage for the Wallabies. Neutral venues four games. Two wins apiece. That’s 50:50 ladies and gents. And that my friends is Jenga!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.